Losing value?

$6/$12 limit B&M hand I have been thinking about for a while.

About the table... not much action pre-flop, rarely 3-bet or capped. Usually 4-5 players see the flop. Most see the turn as well, even if it means cold-calling two. Usually 2 players, sometimes 3 to showdown. Basically, a typical B&M semi-low limit table.

The hand that's got me thinking:
8 players dealt in
Hero is dealt AAo in LP (don't stop now, it's not a bad beat story)
Fold, limp, fold in front of me
Hero raises
Cutoff folds
Button calls
SB folds
BB calls
Limper calls

Hero's [mental] notes:
BB is a decent player, mixes it up pre-flop, too weak tight post flop, but is capable of calling down with any piece if he thinks you've got air or a busted draw
Limper is terrible, calls with almost anything on the flop, usually folds the turn, C/R's with monsters
Hero is the greatest poker player that ever lived, and he's humble too :)
Button is pretty straight forward, plays his cards, ignores position, calls way too much, often regardless of action, almost always sees the flop from LP

4 players to the flop:
J 9 3 rainbow

BB, Limper check
Hero bets
Button raises
BB folds
Limper folds (surprisingly)
Hero 3-bets <-- my thinking at this point is, if he caps it he most likely has top 2 or a set, if he just calls more likely TPGoodK maybe 2 pair maybe OESD

Button caps it
Hero calls

2 players to the turn:
J 9 3 3

So... if you're still with me, you'll notice AAo is now ahead of top 2.

Hero bets
Button raises
... however he didn't break his wrists getting it in there as most players who boat up do, it was almost as if he didn't notice that it paired the board

So my questions are these:
Am I losing value by just calling down at this point?
Or should I still pump the pot?
How often does he need to have a set here in order to justify slowing down? <50%?

Results to follow.

/g2

Comments

  • If he truly is a "decent" player who plays his cards and called a pre-flop raise, the only legitimate hands I can put him on are (in order of likely hood)

    J9 - top two pair
    Q-10 - donk hand of course, but the raising for value seems nice.
    J3 / 93, well if he's decent at all, he folds... UNLESS THEY"RE SOOOOTED! :)

    I would probably bet again...

    but I"m a donk

    Mark
  • The most important part of your post is the button will play almost anything from late position. If that is the case (to me) I probably slow down and just call him down. Your not going to give up this hand and he's not either.
  • Hero is dealt AAo in LP


    What's better AAs or AAo?

    How much did you take down Greg??????
  • Well, if it was AAs then this would be a bad beat story because when g2 flips em up to rake a huge pot, someone would point out the misdeal.

    Wait a minute. Greg is playing limit? Greg agrees with me (in another thread)? My whole perception of reality is topsy turvy. Confusion reigns!
  • DrTyore wrote: »
    If he truly is a "decent" player who plays his cards and called a pre-flop raise, the only legitimate hands I can put him on are (in order of likely hood)

    J9 - top two pair
    Q-10 - donk hand of course, but the raising for value seems nice.
    J3 / 93, well if he's decent at all, he folds... UNLESS THEY"RE SOOOOTED! :)

    I would probably bet again...

    but I"m a donk

    Mark
    JJ and 99 should be in that list... they can't be eliminated simply by the fact that he flat-called pre-flop. No one at the table was 3-betting/capping preflop... there just seemed to be a concensus at the table that it wasn't done. 1000 Islands is weird like that. I literally saw AA vs QQ at showdown and the QQ flat called a raise pre-flop.

    What I can't decide is where I should put the JJ/99 in that list.... if they go above J9 then I should be just calling down on the turn/river... but if J9 has significantly more weight then JJ/99 then I am losing value by not pounding the turn/river.

    /g2
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