Tournament Curiousity.
Hey guys, I saw something today at the Early Bird tournament held every morning at Broadway Casino in Vancouver here, and was wondering what you though.
Small tourney today, 24 players began with stacks of 1500 each so 36, 000 chips in play. Plus, I guess the couple extras that were raced in at the end of the 50 - 100 level for the $25 chips. I have long since busted out of this tournament.
Final three players.
Player A - Button, has about 8ooo chips.
Player B - Small blind has about the same as Player C in the big blind, around 14000 each.
Blinds are 600 and 1200.
Player A raises minimum to 2400. Player B in the sb calls the raise.
Player C immediately moves all in from the big blind.
Player A calls immediately, like immediately, and this is where it gets sort of interesting to me. Player B in the small blind with a sizeable chip stack, hums and haws briefly, and decides to call as well.
When the cards are exposed, it's Player A with AKo, Player B has JJ, and Player C shows AQs. Player B's friends(who are awful players, all congratulate him on his great call, and state loudly that there is no way he could ever fold that hand, three handed, blah blah blah). I wasn't so sure though, but didn't argue the point with them.
What do you guys think about taking these small edge, potential huge dog, definite coinflip situations this late in the tourney. The money wasn't huge, but the difference between first and second was about 120 bucks.
Thoughts?
Small tourney today, 24 players began with stacks of 1500 each so 36, 000 chips in play. Plus, I guess the couple extras that were raced in at the end of the 50 - 100 level for the $25 chips. I have long since busted out of this tournament.
Final three players.
Player A - Button, has about 8ooo chips.
Player B - Small blind has about the same as Player C in the big blind, around 14000 each.
Blinds are 600 and 1200.
Player A raises minimum to 2400. Player B in the sb calls the raise.
Player C immediately moves all in from the big blind.
Player A calls immediately, like immediately, and this is where it gets sort of interesting to me. Player B in the small blind with a sizeable chip stack, hums and haws briefly, and decides to call as well.
When the cards are exposed, it's Player A with AKo, Player B has JJ, and Player C shows AQs. Player B's friends(who are awful players, all congratulate him on his great call, and state loudly that there is no way he could ever fold that hand, three handed, blah blah blah). I wasn't so sure though, but didn't argue the point with them.
What do you guys think about taking these small edge, potential huge dog, definite coinflip situations this late in the tourney. The money wasn't huge, but the difference between first and second was about 120 bucks.
Thoughts?
Comments
If I"m player B, I don't call the min raise, I push. I don't want my JJ going into the hand 3 handed even if I"m ahead at this point. He's a 43% favourite 3 handed. I think then if your called your hoping for a race situation. Given how it played out him calling was a big mistake.
Yes, I would break my wrists shoving my chips in the middle with Jacks in the small blind.
Johnnie
as it played out, i don't see how JJ can fold here. he is well ahead and the pot odds are huuuuuuuuuuuuge.
even if player a had pushed, i'd say sb pushing would still be correct. then the big question is should the bb call with AQs. tough to say since player a could've been playing any 2 and the sb may be trying to isolate with a decent but weaker hand. you might be able to justify a fold if there is a big gap between 3rd and 2nd prize money and you believe you can take either one of them heads up. so many variables...
Per Dan Harrington's methodology, I will combine my estimate of the likelihood of each type of hand with the winning probabilities, to get an overall likelihood of winning.
1. A or C have an overpair: 20% times 17% = 3%
2. A & C have underpairs: 10% times 65% = 7%
3. A & C don't have an overpair and may have overcards: 70% times 42% = 29%.
My estimate of B's total winning probability is 39% (3 + 7 + 29). Since B's odds of winning is greater than his pot odds, he made the correct decision to call. Folding would be the better choice if he was more than 50% sure that he was up against an overpair.
hey, sorry guys, I have been having trouble with my internet connection.
The JJ did hold up, although AQ did flop a flush draw and give us all some fun drama.
Obviously his call was good for a number of reasons. My thinking was just that given how he had played the hand, just calling the min raise, and allowing player C to see the flop( I realize player C ended up having a hand and would have been in regardless), was a mistake. I just thought that calling an all in re raise, and a call of that re raise with JJ is a little different than making that move himself. Also considering that there was a fairly substantial jump in payout between 2 and 3.
Cheers