TPMK in the money in a $300+$25 live MTT
We started with 187 entrants and we're down to 14. I have approximately 130k with the average stack being 100k. Chip leader on my left has ~250k.
Blinds are 4000/8000 with 1000 antes.
Folds to me in the cutoff with ATo. I raise to 28k. Chip leader pauses a few seconds and calls. Blinds fold.
Flop is A96r.
I lead for 40k. Chip leader asks how much I have left. I count it out and say about 60k more. He thinks for a while longer and says he puts me all in.
Am I pot committed to a call here and any comments on how I played the hand up to that point?
Blinds are 4000/8000 with 1000 antes.
Folds to me in the cutoff with ATo. I raise to 28k. Chip leader pauses a few seconds and calls. Blinds fold.
Flop is A96r.
I lead for 40k. Chip leader asks how much I have left. I count it out and say about 60k more. He thinks for a while longer and says he puts me all in.
Am I pot committed to a call here and any comments on how I played the hand up to that point?
Comments
Blinds are 4000/8000 with 1000 antes.
***That average stack has a Harrington M of 5-ish. You are about 6-ish. So you are in slightly better shape than most but you are under A LOT of pressure from the blinds and antes and should be looking for any positive EV spot. As a bad side note, the BIG stack is on your left. He doesn' t want to lose 130K but it does slightly tie your hands.
Folds to me in the cutoff with ATo. I raise to 28k. Chip leader pauses a few seconds and calls. Blinds fold.
***I think your raise is too much. Bet enough to get the job done. You probably have the best hand. But, if you do not you want to keep the pot as small as possible. I prefer 24K or even 20K depending upon how the game has been playing. VERY often in this spot 20K is enough to take down the blinds and antes. In any event, you are called. So there is now 75K in the pot.
Flop is A96r.
I lead for 40k. Chip leader asks how much I have left. I count it out and say about 60k more. He thinks for a while longer and says he puts me all in.
***This bet looks about right to me. Ugh. He moves you in. OK... it's a PURE pot odds decision. You are facing a call of 42K into a pot of 207K... round off you are getting 5-1. How many outs do you have? It would seem that you have three outs, your opponent has three outs, or you have NO outs (he has flopped a set). If you have three outs you are not getting the odds to call. So, for me, this becomes a question of what hands my opponent will have made that initial call with? A-8, A-7, A-5, A-4, and A-2 seem VERY unlikely.
***I fold.
***Back to my first thoughts. If your first bet had been 20K and your flop bet 30K you could (maybe) have limited your loss to 50K instead of 68K. Bet only enough to get the job done.
It's actually 60k into a pot of ~215k. I'm assuming this makes it an auto-muck then?
It's funny because I tell people that all the time. Bet the minimum to get the job done. I think I just overestimated how much I needed to bet in that spot.
Your thoughts on this aspect live/online would be appreciated.
Any thoughts on that?
I'm just confused because two people I respect are giving contradictory advice. One is saying my raise was too small and the other is saying my raise was too big.
Although when I think about it, either of those plays are probably better than the bet size I chose.
1. It induces a worse hand to reraise you.
2. It allows you to get away from your hand if a tight/predictable player reraises you.
The disadvantage is that on such short stacks playing postflop is extremely awkward. Peronsally I think I'd check this flop a lot, there's no real draws to worry about so not many worse hands can reasonably call your cont bet. Chip leaders tend to play a little too aggressive so you might catch him taking a stab at the pot. However, once you lead I can't see getting away from the hand. If the chipleader is very tight/predictable it's hard to imgaine what worse hand he can have here, but on the other hand I'd expect him to reraise a lot of the hands preflop that beat you. If there's any reasonable chance he called preflop with a weaker ace or he's bluffing you here you probably have to call. If you really want to keep getting away from your hand an option on this flop I agree you need to keep the pot smaller. Chances are he has you beat, but I think he surprises you with a worse hand often enough that folding would be a mistake, barring a very good read.
Would checking the flop help the situation? How do I play it if a) he pushes all in or b) he makes the same 40k bet I made?
I agree that a few of the hands that beat me he would've reraised preflop (AK, AQ) but a few of the hands I beat also would've reraised preflop (ie. kings, queens).
I'm still debating whether or not a smaller raise or an all-in would've been better. I did specify "live" tournament on 2+2 but maybe too much online poker influenced them a bit. I see the advantages for both.
Well, anyway.. he had AJ and busted me. gg.
Has the CL been calling raises in position and stealing pots? Is he the type which will put his stack at risk on a stone cold bluff? Is he afraid of going all-in?
Most players won't call the raise with AQ, AK. More typically, they will call with AJ and pocket pairs -- say 99 and 66, but also TT-55. So, you know he knows you've raised and made a decent continuation bet.
I really hate pushing preflop, unless I have an M of 6 or less.
The key is that you are short handed -- I'm assuming you have 7 or less at your table given there are only 14 players. So, this is not a full table decision.
Mostly I like what Dave said, but given your spot I think you need to consider your bet and how you will react to an all-in from your opponent. If you're likely to call, then I would prefer a c/r all-in. As has been said there are not a ton of draws which will call you and pocket pairs are way behind.
If you're likely to fold, then that's a tough one. Do you bet less on the continuation bet? Do you check call? Do you check fold (YUCK!)? Personally, I think the line you chose is the best one given your preflop raise. However, I'm with Dave on the fold UNLESS you look up and see him staring you down and looking real strong -- so you need a read.
These days -- given the short table and the fact I have the CL to my left, I'm more inclined to open-limp or fold pre-flop. My rationale is that I have to fold to a re-raise and I hate doing that. With the CL behind me I'm looking at more premium hands from EMP which I assume you were. I really hate AT with a decent size stack. I will steal with it on the button, but wouldn't do it from the cutoff and further up.
However, I'm really, really tempted to steal with AT --- so what I'm really saying is that folding, raising (smaller though as per dave) and limping is ok. It's pretty much situational based on the type of opponents behind me. Pushing pre-flop is not an option for me.
Cheers
Lou
***It is VERY often the case that the BB ought to call but doesn't. Although anecdotal, my experience is the 3 bb or even 2.5 bb is enough to pick up the blinds even when there are antes. If this is NOT the case at this table then you have to raise more, as you did.
It's actually 60k into a pot of ~215k. I'm assuming this makes it an auto-muck then?
***Now you're making me check my math... 7 players Blinds are 4000/8000 with 1000 antes (pot starts at 19,000). You make it 28K (total 47K). He calls and both blinds fold (pot now 76K). On the turn you bet 40K (pot now 116K). He moves in -- that is 40K + your remaining chips of 62K (pot now 228K). Oops. My bad. You call is 62K into 228K. Same thoughts apply, though... you aren't getting the odds to call. And, folding is easier actually since you have 62K left.
Great analysis Dave. I think that betting enough to get it done applies more to live than on line. I find in these situations on line I pretty much push since my M is less than 10 and anything less than that (especially with chip leader to the left) seems to get called/re-raised.
***I only push when I get to about 6 x bb. Pushing, here, is too soon I think. You are betting 130K to win 19K and you are going to HATE being called. If it is a good play to push in this spot with ATo then it is almost certainly a good play to push with a hand like 8-5o. Which, it might be, by the way.
Your thoughts on this aspect live/online would be appreciated.
***I don't generally play differently. The difference is that I can make some testy reads live because there is more info whereas online the only info is the category I have my opponent in.
***I am sticking with my original analysis. I think that at 130K you still have enough chips left that moving in is a bad play... risk of going bust is too hurtful since you are still very much in the fray.
So many people make so many bad calls for their stacks on line I believe pushing is the answer there. Even if you end up going down you go down fighting and not allowing your stack to dwindle. I also find it helps you get to the final table on line since you can quickly build up a healthy stack.
I'll have to sit down and review some hand histories regarding some of the points you made.