• Analyze My Hand

  • Another frustrating hand - did I play this poorly or did the villain get really lucky?

Game information:
$0.5/$.10 blinds on WSOP Ontario
100BBs for villain and myself
No real information on villain but appears nitty (9% VPIP on limited sample size)

All folds up to button
Villain on button calls to $.10 (no bet)
Sb folds
I check on bb with Q9 of suited clubs (I didn’t raise because I’m OOP so figure I get free flop with a hand of decent potential)
Flop:JH, 10C, 8S I’ve hit a well disguised straight so I check to trap villain bets 50%, I call
Turn:AC, ok that’s not great if villain has KQ but why didn’t they bet preflop? I bet 75% with flush draw possible and second nutted straight already
Flop:JC, I’ve hit a flush, I bet 75%, villain reraised to about 4.5 times my bet,I call villain shows JD10H which gives them a full house. Ugh!

Ok, so first of all why would villain not bet on button?
Turn card made me a tad nervous but I’m trying to build pot and figured it is very unlikely they have the only hand that has me beat at this point which would be a KQ and how do they not bet with that hand preflop in the first place? Flop brings flush and I’m thinking does villain really have the KC and another C which is the only better possible flush ?(and again, if villain had that then why did they not bet preflop from button to at least steal?). My mind is saying maybe they had a weak hand with 2 C in the first place which would explain not betting so they think their weak flush is good and that I’m on a straight. To me it also did not make sense that they could have 8’s, 10’s because again surely they would be that preflop from the button?!? Even jack 10 off suit which is what villain had had to be worthy of betting from the button or is someone is super nitty maybe they just fold it but surely not just call preflop from button? I honestly don’t get the logic of this player and don’t feel he played the fundamentals correctly at all. Am I wrong? The fact that a nit with less than 10% VPIP would even play a hand this way boggles my mind. A passive 50% VPIP, 10%PFR fish, yes that makes sense but not for a nit. They are supposed to play only the best hands and never passively call especially from the button.

Based on the above, did I really play this poorly or did the villain? Should I have jammed on turn (in hindsight of course “yes” is the answer given what happened on river because I could have cashed out if he called my jam)? Also, was it really a bad call when I was reraised given all the information above?

So first thing I question is that you checked on the flop then called their bet. Then on the turn you tried to take control of the board. I'm curious why?You let them control the pot with you disguised straight and then you decided to take back control.. not sure why. Again not that it's wrong just curious thought reasoning.

Also if you just call in BB vs Button flat both your ranges are wide open and impossible to narrow. Game of BINGO at this point and just got lucky same as you did on the flop
Also to add you are playing 5¢/10¢ unless you know a player they could have any skill of any level. Not everyone knows poker logic or Ranges or position or anything. Some play thinking it's just a game of chance! at this level I find it very difficult to gauge a player till you have played at min100 hands against them and you have paid attention to know if they have any poker skills or not. Mark that player with a color, green is a fish and no knowledge, red is a player with knowledge and skill.. just an example. also players that never top up and are playing with $4 at a $10 NL table.. they either don't have more money so playing with scared money..bor they are scared to loose too much which is the same., playing with scared money. Mark em and hunt em!!
MrCaspan;c-425867 wroteSo first thing I question is that you checked on the flop then called their bet. Then on the turn you tried to take control of the board. I'm curious why?You let them control the pot with you disguised straight and then you decided to take back control.. not sure why. Again not that it's wrong just curious thought reasoning.

Also if you just call in BB vs Button flat both your ranges are wide open and impossible to narrow. Game of BINGO at this point and just got lucky same as you did on the flop

On flop I didn’t want to get them to fold to a bet. On turn I figured if they already bet then they have something like top card or are drawing (maybe flush draw or they have a Q or K and are on a straight draw that just got closer to completion with ace coming down) but I already have straight with flush draw so it’s a good spot to build the pot. Yeah probably not optimal way but that was my thought process. On river, even though there was 2 pair, the rest of the cards were high enough that I didnt believe they could have a set of 8s or 10s because that is crazy not to bet a middle pocket pair (if there were 2-6s maybe I would have been more wary of the full house on the river). Of course the one hand they could have was the 10 and jack and I honestly didn’t see that coming at all. I was thinking “show me king and X of clubs”
My two cents (but I don't know stack sizes):

Raise 3x-4x preflop but as played, hitting the nut straight on a rainbow flop - I can see an argument for checking or betting. Against a nit who just limped preflop, I may lean towards checking and "letting them catch up", but donk betting out like 50% of the pot is fine too.

As played, you check and villain bets 50% pot. This seems ideal IMO. A nit is probably not going to limp preflop and then bet a flop they missed. Therefore, villain has to have something and is most likely calling a raise. So with the nuts, I'm check raising here all day.

You call and see the A on the turn which now means you don't have the nuts any more. As played, I'm probably checking again as the turn has only made your hand worse if anything. You bet and I'm assuming villain just calls.

River pairs the J and gives you a flush. The paired J has to scare you. J has to be one of the most likely cards in villains range the way he's played the hand so far. And there is no way a nit is calling a 75% pot bet on the turn here with just a pair of Js.

So, as played, I'm probably check calling the river as our hand is probably too strong to fold at this point.

Overall, you played it way too passive. Bet preflop. Bet flop. Reraise/shove to a raise. In the end, you probably would have lost the pot anyway, but that's how poker works. At least in that scenario, you're putting your money in ahead and getting sucked out on instead of betting into the villain while behind.
#RiverStars gotta max that rake, consider how you'd play flopping top two pair bb vs sb ?

Conspiracies aside, inevitably you're put in some tough spots while playing poker.
Is villain even re-raise bluffing on that river ?

If you're interested in theory consider running some simulations check out propokertools.com * ?




I havent tried that software so cant vouch for it just heard people talking about it on /r/Poker_Theory

Hey there TrophyAngler...

I saw this post and your last one... I'm a fan of hand history discussion, but perhaps hide the results at first, or at least "white them out" with the post so people can debate without bias of hindsight. I'll contribute when I can though.

Mark
Are you saying we would act differently if we knew we were going to lose!!
MrCaspan;c-425889 wroteAre you saying we would act differently if we knew we were going to lose!!
He's saying people's opinions on how to play the hand may change if they know the outcome and the opponent's hole cards to begin with. I think in general though if someone is posting a hand for analysis, we can mostly assume they lost the hand.
my comment was sarcastic in nature couldent you tell!!

I was just pulling conmps leg... hehe.. But comp is right, if you want a real assesment better to just tell us the info and hide the result

..... Am I getting THAT o
MrCaspan;c-425894 wrotemy comment was sarcastic in nature couldent you tell!!

I was just pulling conmps leg... hehe.. But comp is right,
Am I getting THAT old?

Mark

>If you're interested in theory consider running some simulations ...

GTO WIzard (web app) gives you one free cash game sim per day,
like a free trial but maybe min $0.25/$0.50 ... ( if you run the sim, please post the results)