The Gamblers Fallacy

MrCaspan

Interesting watch! If you are into numbers you will find this fascinating!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA_0OMJjkxQ

thisORthat

So as applied to poker would be; "well, I missed the last Xnumber of flush/broadway/st8 flush draw(s) so I'm more likely to make the draw next time". When the odds of making the draw are a constant percentage based on the particular card distribution of that hand.

Where the percentage of making the draw would decrease by a fraction if say another player had mucked hypothetically speaking a Jack... notice the difference in odds change ? (see attached GIF)

thisORthat

Also after watching Casablanca I'm not sure that I trust oubliette tables.
That on top of the staggering odds of making the correct 'guess' on the outcome.

I'd still trust a (physical) roulette wheel over a digital RNG.

MrCaspan

It's about thinking that if you are on a flush draw on the flop and you know a flush will beat their holding, This means there are 9 cards in the deck that will guarantee your victory. You have to ignore what you don't know like the possibility that some of them have already been folded. You are looking for 9 cards and there are 2 cards to come the bad math is 36% chance on the turn and 18% chance on the river. Again this is using the basic math that each card represents ~1.9% of the deck so we use 2% for each card as easy math. It's dirty math but it gets you the rough percentage very quickly in a game. So in your head you go "well if I am on a flush draw that means that the odds of getting a flush are 2:1 (2 times you wont : 1 time you will, so about 33%) So most people would assume that If they played this hand 9 times, they will lose 6 times and win 3 times or close to that because "variance" that you can convince yourself as the reason why the numbers were not exact!! But for some reason you lost every attempt at your flush draw and you are tilted because the odds say 33% , WTF!!! How is that possible!! I am supposed to have hit my flush at least once by now because I know it should be 3 and maybe variance but what's up???... So the next flush draw you are on you think "this flush is DUE, it has to hit this time, so you risk it all" Well that's not how odds work and your sample size is too small, you need a larger sample size to get to those odds and that's gamblers fallacy. If you play your flush draws a million times then yes in the long run it will get closer (not exactly it but closer) to those odds. Poker players have to be in it for the long run, there is no hit and run in poker, it is a life long grind and as long as you always put yourself in a favorable position in the long run your winning should reflects your odds you placed your money against minus of course the ever loving variance.