Is this ever a fold?

Card Dead

Looking for some input from the tournament gurus on this hand. It’s not complicated, but the situation is interesting.

Yesterday’s $165 at Niagara
230 runners, and we’re down to final 5
Approximate remaining payouts: $1500, $2500, $4000, $5000, $7000

We had just had a discussion regarding a 5 way chip chop which was vetoed by seat 1, who was an avg stack at the time, much to the chagrin of the other 4 players. After the discussion, Seat 1 starts jamming almost every pot, scooping the significant blinds and antes, and after a couple of orbits, is now the chipleader.

Blinds:$15k/$30k/30k
Avg stack: 460k (18bb)

Seat 1: 650k UTG (V)
Seat 2: 450k (H)
Seat 3: 350k
Seat 4: 600k SB
Seat 5: 250k BB

Seat 1 open jams again, and I have A5ss in seat 2.

Our goal at this point is to max our EV as much as possible. Considering the pay jumps, stack sizes, position, and table dynamics, is this a foldable hand?

BTW, this is not a results oriented question, as I was 50-50 in the moment, and was unsure what to do in that spit.

I ultimately folded after thinking for a while.

djgolfcan

It's a fold, every time, especially with ICM considerations. There are two stacks shorter than you are and no one is deep. It is reasonable to assume you can move up one or two spots, given the stack sizes.

moose

Fold. Even if you are ahead of his range, at best it's 60/40 and this doesn't include anyone after you waking up to a hand.

Toronto Pimp

Yup, even I fold this one Glen. 2 shorter stacks, 1 of them is under 10 bigs. I would fold this one and wait for a better spot.

also if I read that correctly you are 2nd to act with an 11BB and a 9BB stack to act after you.... Fold every time.

I would love the Jam all in with the A5ss but wouldn’t call an all in with it.

marban

if i may...i,ll be the contrarian......im calling because this guy,s range is very wide and a suited ace is never in that bad a shape,,,,unless one or more of the other stacks has a premium hand they will fold hoping you go broke......if you lose you are winning 10 times your buy in and if you win you have a workable stack against now 2 really short stakes and have a shot at 7000 grand...….I know I know, you want me at your home games and lock the door....lol....

Toronto Pimp

marban;416698 wroteif i may...i,ll be the contrarian......im calling because this guy,s range is very wide and a suited ace is never in that bad a shape,,,,unless one or more of the other stacks has a premium hand they will fold hoping you go broke......if you lose you are winning 10 times your buy in and if you win you have a workable stack against now 2 really short stakes and have a shot at 7000 grand...….I know I know, you want me at your home games and lock the door....lol....

marban, I see your point here.

he could be shoving light here knowing everyone is going to fold to ladder up the pay scale.

‘if he shoves KQ we are 60% to win
if he shoves a bigger Ace we are 30% if he has A6-AK..... that’s gonna be bad for us.

sometimes we have to take a stand and a suited A5 is better than most. This is the fun part of the game when you can pick off a guy playing pure GTO .

djgolfcan

If it were just heads up or blind vs blind, absolutely I call - But there are too many players to act after us in this scenario and two shorter stacks than us.

Card Dead

Thanks for presenting the other side of the argument Marban.

This is basically the conversation I had in my head as I thought it through. To me it came down to what was more important to me at the time, surviving in hopes of laddering up or trying to win it all.

In the end, I chose the former, and did end up getting it in in a better spot, it just didn’t work out.

marban

we all should do what we are comfortable with......if it comes down to 2 tables in a MTT and I have a decent stack, I don't frigg around.. I go for the win and don't even think about trying to make the final table...….ive been betting horses for years and years and I always bet win, not win /place...…...or win/place/show...……..sometimes it works out sometimes not

EdtheTed

djgolfcan;416700 wroteIf it were just heads up or blind vs blind, absolutely I call - But there are too many players to act after us in this scenario and two shorter stacks than us.

Yes, what DJ said, both times.