PS Microstakes Hand

The_Awesome

I've been playing poker for 15 years now but have only recently started playing online for real money. Not much mind you, I have started at the $0.05/0.10 no ante NL Holdem tables.

My first impression is that I was stunned by how structured it is.... more so than most live cash tables I play. My bankroll took a dive for a couple weeks as I adapted but has since been on the rise and is positive again. I am running PokerTracker 4 and have 10k hands in at this point.

The good news is that the leak tracker says most of my play is good except for a couple things. I need to slightly adjust my VPIP down and my PR up to get an optimal ratio. I have made this adjustment.

One other thing I noticed is that I am down with KK, QQ, JJ and 10 10. I have definitely noticed some bad outcomes with KK and QQ for large pots. So let's look at the most recent and see if you can help me see if I need to update my approach. It has 'seemed' to be some bad luck to me during this period so perhaps a larger sample size will correct this.

Hand:
Full table (9), $0.05/0.10 blinds no antes, stacks mostly $6-$12
Hero has the button with $9 stack

Villain is UTG and raises to $0.30.
(okay raise from UTG is likely a narrow range)
2 callers mid field
Hero raises to $2.00 from the button
(I am always raising big here since I have KK, 2 limpers, to let UTG know I have premium and I believe that having position combined with the initiative is the best place to be post flop)
Both blinds fold
Villain raises all in for $9
Both limpers fold
****
I have invested $2 and the pot is $11.75 and $7 for me to call. UTG reraise means very narrow range but with 2 limpers a little wider to perhaps to ensure isolate to heads up with me. So traditionally I put the range as AA, KK, QQ, AKs and I am only behind to the AA. On paper this is an easy call. But my little voice is of course screaming at me that this is AA 90% of the time and my range is crap. I can fold QQ here probably but KK...

***
I call and Villain has AA which stands and I lose $9.

So PT is telling me I am losing big pots with KK, QQ. I don't quite have enough seat time yet to narrow ranges enough I don't think.

So I am looking for your advice. How often am I actually against AA there when playing online micro stakes? What hands would call the $2 and what hands would re-raise all in? Can you fold there?

Bonus question... I am positive in all positions except the blinds. Is this to be expected or can one be positive in all positions consistently?

DrTyore

Overthinking it..

Villain being on AA 90% of the time is FAR too generous. Push and pray 100% of the time (this from someone who HAS folded KK preflop a few times online and live)

Mark

moose

The only way you can fold is if your pokertracker hud tells you villain is an absolute nit who never four bet shoves preflop.

Nice article
Odds Opponent Holds Aces vs Kings, AA Against KK Poker Chances

Even though the odds of it happening in full ring is 4.32%, there are still the times that KK wins which by pokerstove is 17.82% of the time.

The_Awesome

Makes perfect sense. Though after the action the odds are greater than 4.32%. But that is a good number to have in my pocket.

But the way I am running with KK it is hard not to question the 'randomness' of online dealing. More often than not it is all in preflop. It is always 2 opponents or less (most often heads up).

But then again I have played enough poker at this point to know the highly improbable actually happens in real life at times.

The_Awesome

Just for shits and giggles I've been keeping tack of every hand where KK got it all in preflop against at least one other player in any way at this same table type and so far it has been:

6 times against AA

1 time against other

moose

Look at your own stats. Maybe you look like the nit because your preflop 3 bet range is too narrow.

Toronto Pimp

my advice will get you into trouble but............ (moose is 100% right)

You need to make the same 3 bet with 67 suited or 9,10 suited as you do with kings every once in a while.

The_Awesome

You misunderstand. Those 7 hands are not hands where I had KK and got all in preflop... those are all observed hands where someone (anyone) had KK and got it all in preflop against someone since I posted this thread. So my play is not in play here.

With 14k hands in so far my analysis is that at this level of blinds at this site the players are very nitty to 3bets+ and those that get all their chips in preflop usually have AA or KK. So when you see KK get it all in it seems to be most often only called when someone else has AA (that 4% chance). Otherwise, in most of the other 19 of 20 occurrences, everyone else folds.

But 7 hands is not enough data points to draw any solid conclusions so I will keep playing and noting the all in KK preflop hands I see.

At a live NL cash table I'm never going to second guess getting all my chips in preflop with KK (at least not any live table level that I have played so far). I've only ever folded KK preflop once in all my years and that was in a tournament due to a strong read and villain showed his AA after (there may have been some begging on my part).

Right now I am trying to adjust to this very specific game/table and am curious about what people there typically have when they commit preflop.

As to my play my 3Bet is in the lower half of the optimal range per Poker Tracker overall. All my pairs above 66 are now positive except KK but it is close to even again. Certainly more spikes down than up with the rest a slow rise. I think the best strategy for now is to focus on maximizing those slow rise hands but I want to work on those big spike downs.

I will dive into each of my hands and see what I was against each time all preflop to add more data.

The_Awesome

So looking at all the hands I got it all in somehow against at least one opponent (always one actually) when I had KK there are some interesting stats supporting my findings.

75 total KK hands.
Only 3 times it got all in preflop with villain (4%).
2 times it was against AA (67%) and 1 time other (33%).

So it is only getting all in preflop around the same % you can expect KK to be facing AA on average. So it should in fact be vs. AA a high percentage of those times.

Of course assuming with more data points the same results continue. But they are supported by the other hands I have observed stated above (6 vs 1) as well as the all in preflop with AA hands I have played (2 of 3). But so far the data says when KK gets all in preflop somehow against someone 85% of the time it is against AA due to what range the players are actually willing to get it in with preflop.

The_Awesome

Is there a way to do a LeakTracker analysis on everyone else you have played with PokerTracker 4 rather than yourself? So I can see the average play of this table/blinds?

If you treat all opponents as villain one at a time and analyze the data I would think that it should only take 8x the time it takes to do the LeakTracker on Hero. It would be valuable to know the meta game of the table type you are playing.

The_Awesome

Seems to be time to move up a level. Started with $90 and am +$90 atm. Actually the bank account is $260 due to a daily prize win.

23k NL10 full ring hands in so far and LeakTracker only reports one leak in some positions. Still positive in all positions except the blinds. Not sure if that is to be expected or not... but I need to improve it. I seem to lose my structured play in the blinds and chase value that isn't likely there. My full 23k hand BB/100 is 4.2 (bb/100 8.4) but if I remove the first 5k as an adjustment period it is 8 (16) the last 18k hands.

I am making a lot of notes on observed play at this level. Does anyone have advice about what changes going from .10NL to .18NL and .25NL full ring?

The_Awesome

Sometimes this game is hard to stomach....

PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 12.08, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 243)
BB (BB): 101.5 BB (VPIP: 18.68, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 8.76, Hands: 356)
UTG (UTG): 82 BB (VPIP: 44.12, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 35)
UTG+1 (UTG+1): 131.6 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
MP (MP): 100 BB (VPIP: 18.83, PFR: 16.34, 3Bet Preflop: 5.17, Hands: 155)
CO (CO): 100 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (BTN): 127.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:
AhAd

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, SB calls 5.5 BB, fold, UTG raises to 18 BB, Hero raises to 127.7 BB and is all-in, SB calls 94 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 64 BB and is all-in

Flop (283 BB, 3 players):
4h10s9h

Turn (283 BB, 3 players):
10h

River (283 BB, 3 players):
Qh

SB shows:
KdKh
(Flush, King High)
Main Pot [247 BB]: (Pre 17%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot [36 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows:
AdAh
(Flush, Ace High)
Main Pot [247 BB]: (Pre 67%, Flop 82%, Turn 90%)
Side Pot [36 BB]: (Pre 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)

UTG shows:
QcQs
(Full House, Queens full of Tens)
Main Pot [247 BB]: (Pre 17%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

UTG wins 235.9 BB

Hero wins 34.4 BB

compuease

At least you didn't finish last....:D

The_Awesome

Quite true :)

The setups drive me nuts. Played another hand later where 3 people saw the flop. By the river there was 4 cards to the 6-10 straight and I had the needed 9... no flush out there. The two other guys both had 9 J lol.

But things are still going well. In July I had a bb/100 of 8 and in August so far it is 15.

The_Awesome

I guess this is kinda turning into a blog. Even if there's not much interest I still feel the need to talk about this.

I am finally suffering through my first real bad run where My C All-in Adj has spiked up over My C Won. It's amazing. I keep getting my chips in when ahead and I keep losing. I know it can't last forever but it's tough.

My bb/100 for August has dropped back to about 10. Let's hope this doesn't last too long.

Also as an update to the first post from all the data I have collected thus far, if there is an all in on a 4bet it would not be unreasonable to consider folding KK preflop unless you are getting 2:1 pot odds IMHO. Unless the player is known to be loose (for this table type: NL.10 full ring) or have a 4bet higher than 3-4% or has a stack size affecting his decision. Sounds strange but that's just what the numbers are telling me so far.

trigs

I've been lurking this thread. Keep it up!

The_Awesome

Cool :). I am still suffering through this rough period. Usually missing everything, then catching big and getting beat by the highly improbable. It's sanity challenging at times... truly. I guess this is the 'grind' part they all talk about. Keeping control of your game during it being the key.

The_Awesome

Here is a better look. The bad streak has lasted about 10k hands. And the All-In Adj only shows part of the story.