Here's what my idiot mind can't comprehend

Ercules

I haven't posted in a awhile and my last few posts basically declared myself out of poker but I do enjoy the game and kept playing but there is a pattern occurring that I just can't comprehend. I play almost strictly SNG's. I'm a decent player with an ITM of about 41% over 10,000 tournaments. The pattern is always the same, my bankroll makes a nice steady climb over a few week stretch, a few dips here and there but generally sticking to my stats without too much variance, and then suddenly one tournament and whamo, everything goes off a cliff. It's so predictable it's scary. I'll play 500 tournaments make a nice steady climb, a little variance here and there and then the next 100 becomes a competition to see what clever way I can lose a hand.

Ok, so, I know most are discounting anything in this thread and truth be told I need to vent a little but it happens with such regularity I could almost bet on it. I also expect the standard 'that's poker' reply but the statistical anomalies that happen lead me to the title of the post, my idiot mind can't comprehend how this can happen with such alarming frequency. It's literally like at some point my cards just get exposed. I fully understand that occasionally an opponent sucks out but once I get in this downswing every hand sucks out. I know you are thinking that it probably just feels that way but I have some back to back to back hand histories that I can post. I don't understand how one can go from consistently being ITM at a 40% clip or so to < 5% over a 100 tourney stretch. It makes no sense. Then it passes, everything goes back to normal and I forget and then it repeats.

Ugh... even if it's not rigged my mind kinda thinks it is now, it's always gonna be there. I don't really know the whole point to the thread. Just needed to vent I guess.

trigs

set a cut-off limit. if you lose x amount than take a break from poker for a week or weeks before going back fresh.

compuease

Well if you play 500 tournaments making a steady climb then 100 where it's downward you should still be ahead unless you are playing higher stakes.. If you look at it as you being a winning player with over 10,000 tournaments (you are I assume?) then why worry about a stretch of 100? As you, and all of us know, variance in tournament poker is extreme. If it really bothers you then forget the thought of making money, just play your best and only for fun. Play live when you can, it's much more fun.

djgolfcan

When you start to see the decline and you drop 5 buy-ins in a row, move down in stakes. Set bankroll limits as to when you move up or down in stakes, I have found that if I'm playing with a bigger bankroll for that stake I am playing, the losses or suckouts hurt a lot less.

Ercules

trigs;396108 wroteset a cut-off limit. if you lose x amount than take a break from poker for a week or weeks before going back fresh.

It will sound like more tin foil hat stuff but I do take breaks, this most recent time I stopped playing for a week. When I go back in fresh and relaxed it picks back right up. It's like I have to play through it to get out of it. It's suspicious.

Ercules

djgolfcan;396112 wroteWhen you start to see the decline and you drop 5 buy-ins in a row, move down in stakes. Set bankroll limits as to when you move up or down in stakes, I have found that if I'm playing with a bigger bankroll for that stake I am playing, the losses or suckouts hurt a lot less.

I definetley try and do this, sometimes the downswing is hard to notice right away, lose 4, win 1 lose 3, win 1, lose 5 etc... by the time I realize I'm in the downswing I've lost a little more than I am comfortable with. But good advice and something I do try. The one problem I do have with this is the tendency that preparing for this kind of thing causes you to not play your best,

Ercules

compuease;396109 wroteWell if you play 500 tournaments making a steady climb then 100 where it's downward you should still be ahead unless you are playing higher stakes.. If you look at it as you being a winning player with over 10,000 tournaments (you are I assume?) then why worry about a stretch of 100? As you, and all of us know, variance in tournament poker is extreme. If it really bothers you then forget the thought of making money, just play your best and only for fun. Play live when you can, it's much more fun.

Yes, still up. And I do try and look at the long term results but it's so predictable that it's hard to not question it. Like clockwork.

UBetIFold

How many buy ins do you have for the current level of sng's you are playing?

DJ summed it up quite nicely. I used to be a 80% SNG player also playing 2 different stakes usually simultaneously, and always have 100 buy ins for the higher stake, and 200 for the lower.

moose

It's not a downswing unless you go down. Hence the term. It happens.

sn1perb0y

Blondfish would call it #rigged

BlondeFish

Humans suck at comprehending randomness and patterns. We explain random outcomes as non-random. We see patterns and causations that don't exist, e.g., we see Jesus Christ in clouds, food and everywhere and some think it's a miracle. Dan Harrington and other winning players have recommended the books "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan."

sn1perb0y;396161 wroteBlondfish would call it #rigged

P.S. Life is rigged. >:D

Bfillmaff

BlondeFish;396193 wroterecommended the books "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan."

Thanks for that, I'm going to check those out.

kaipanoulias666

From what I gather from your post, you actually aren't losing too badly. With 500 wins and 100 losses (what I gathered from your post.) That's a 5/6 win rate, or 83% over 600. That is honestly quite impressive. (I realize that there are probably losses peppered in the 500 wins, and wins peppered in the 100 losses, I am just simplifying it.) My advice is to keep up the good work and don't let the minor varience get to you. Also,since you are playing 9 handed sngs, keep track of the players who are there when you win/lose. It is very likely that your losses could be coming while the stronger players are there, and you are crushing the fish.(outside of the suckouts of course.)

Good luck at the tables and keep up the good work.

Toronto Pimp

BlondeFish;396193 wrote e.g., we see Jesus Christ in clouds, food and everywhere and some think it's a miracle.

P.S. Life is rigged. >:D

I once had a piece of toast at the Bellagio buffet that had looked like a picture of Dolly Parton's boobies

BlondeFish

Toronto Pimp;396363 wroteI once had a piece of toast at the Bellagio buffet that had looked like a picture of Dolly Parton's boobies

"It can't possibly be random" so her boobies must be rigged! >:D
See you on Friday at the "rigged" electronic shufflers.