Losing too many All Ins

Ercules

So I've really started looking at my game and trying to be honest with myself. Analyzing leaks, asking for advice, reading etc.. but I have something from my stats that I am having a hard time explaining and therefore coming up with a strategy to correct.

I am strictly a low limit SNG tourney player at this point.

What I am seeing is a giant and growing discrepancy between my $ won and my expected money won. It's almost 100%. To make the math easier Let's say over the last 6 months I've won $100 but my expected is $200. So basically I am losing a ton of all ins where I am the favorite at the time the money goes in. I don't know how to correct this, I mean I am getting my money in all in with the best of it and just continue to get outdrawn.

For a while I just let it go as variation but I'm now pushing 2000 tournaments and the gap continues to widen. Is my sample size too small? Would anyone who plays a lot consider this normal? Am I just getting unusually unlucky? Is online poker rigged (slight tongue in cheek)?

I know at the lower stakes people aren't paying attention to anyone else (well probably not as much as I do) and call with nonsense a lot which is basically what I am counting on. Getting a big hand pushing and expecting a call from garbage, this happens a lot but I'm just not seeing the win rate I would expect. I know I can't win every hand but the trend looks like I am pushing with the worst hand most of the time which is the opposite of reality.

I'm trying to play a patient game but this is really starting to get to me. What kind of things would you look at if you saw these results? I'm not sure where to start.. I want to stick to the plan but I'm discouraged right now and don't really know where to even start.

trigs

if what you are saying is true, then there's nothing you can do. you are just experiencing the downside of variance. keep playing well and getting your money in good and you'll eventually see it turn around.

Wetts1012

2k is a reasonable sample size.

Of course it's variance since we're talking $w vs. $ew but it would appear to a more extreme case of the runbads.

Bfillmaff

Ercules

Bfillmaff;387568 wrote

What am I looking at?

Bfillmaff

Basically it's a computer simulation of a winning player that should win 8bb/100 hands, playing 20000 hands... 1000 times. The best run of the 1000 is shown by the blue line. The worst run is shown as the red line. Then you have the light green bars in the middle, this shows the area that the simulation stayed in 70% of the time.

I posted it more as a "LOL variance" - just keep getting your money in good!

pkrfce9

I thought it was a lol tinfoil hat graph

Ercules

Ugh.. it just continues. I'm baffled and what is bothering me now is doubt is starting to creep into my game as a result. I don't know what to do, I feel like the guy who thinks he can beat a crooked game right now. I don't think I have any choice but to take a time out. See you all in 2015

trigs

Ercules;387885 wroteUgh.. it just continues. I'm baffled and what is bothering me now is doubt is starting to creep into my game as a result. I don't know what to do, I feel like the guy who thinks he can beat a crooked game right now. I don't think I have any choice but to take a time out. See you all in 2015

taking a break never hurt anyone. do some studying and some reviewing and come back fresh in the new year.

Ercules

So anywAy, that's it. Tonights absolute nonsense is the last straw. There is no way at this point i can continue to play online properly. I've withdrawn everything and will very likely be closing down my PS account. GG.