SNG Strategy hand analysis please

Irunit4times

After having a chat with pkrfce9 the other night and reviewing some hand history and plays, there were two hands that were brought up and wanted some feedback on also.

These are the two hands in question, and the question is, given the table dynamic (stack sizes) ICM and EV calculations, what are your thoughts on these two spots? Right, wrong thoughts, plays what do you think?

There is no information on players, I feel that in these spots in sng you do not need them as its more math than anything, but hey. I will wait to hear what everyone thinks.

Hero (A3 - Button) loss - Hand Import - - submitted 10-30-2014 - 19:31 pm - Poker Hand Replays

Hero (KT - Button) loss - Hand Import - - submitted 10-30-2014 - 19:32 pm - Poker Hand Replays

Thanks in advance

Wetts1012

I bet flop hand 1. You perceived range is not strong when you check back 2d flop. As played fold.

You have to call hand 2. Your only 3/2 dog against his range, and thats assuming he's not shoving qjss, tjss, etc.

reibs

yes these spots are exactly that, math. And how well you can range your opponents. Seems wetts is spot on though ;)

First hand def cbet. Question for you though - If you cbet 1/2 pot, how often does it have to work? Once you get that answer, put his range into a calculator, like flopzilla or something... and figure out how much of his preflop range he must continue with to make our cbet directly -EV. You can do this by getting # of combos in his original preflop range, and then put in his flop continue range (after we cbet) to see how many combos that is. Divide the two to get how often he is continuing/folding.

Also, anytime you want to check back, you should always ask yourself, how many scare cards are there? Which cards would you not like to see? In this case there are a ton, which helps the case for cbetting even more. Just look at the result, you paired up and still did not feel comfortable calling.

Second hand, is actually close if villain is pretty nitty, but clear call if he's not. You need to call 1100, to win 3300. Meaning you only need 33% eq vs his shoving range. If villain is super tight, we could assign a range of (AA-55,AKo-ATo,KQo,AKs-A8s,KQs-KJs)?? - and our hand has barely enough equity to call at 33.43% like wetts said. If he is looser and you feel he shoves more than that, then it just increases how much we make on the call. Like if you think he shoves (AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s) which is 21.5%, then our hand has 42.7% eq and it would be a HUGE mistake to fold. The more you play, the better feel you will get and you can adjust these ranges for yourself.

pkrfce9

Does this mean I'm a genius?

philliivey

Hand 1 cbet, Depending on opponent and situation I may have called his bet ( or raise) on the turn but that's if I am feeling frisky.:D

Hand 2 reibs covered it pretty good, It's a "sigh call".:wink2:.

Bfillmaff

reibs;385726 wrote If he is looser and you feel he shoves more than that, then it just increases how much we make on the call. Like if you think he shoves (AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s) which is 21.5%, then our hand has 42.7% eq and it would be a HUGE mistake to fold. The more you play, the better feel you will get and you can adjust these ranges for yourself.

I agree, the looser range is fair. He's got less than 8BB's and pretty much anything decent is going in. Some variance when you get it in dominated sometimes, but I think you are priced in.

I actually like the min raise pre flop, but once you do that it cant be raise/fold against the 1500 stack.

GTA Poker

Can you explain why you checked behind on hand 1? It is a perfect Cbet board.

Hand 2 is an standard call with stack sizes.