Big river decision.

sn1perb0y

BlondeFish;379240 wroteAt the beginning of the hand, chipleader EvigGli's equity of the $7,999 remaining prize pool is 17.4%. You are 2nd in chips with 15.9% equity. You need 37.5% probability that you have the better hand to make it +cEV to call.

If you call and he shows a flush or straight, then you are eliminated in 7th place with only $398. If your call is correct, you are the chip leader for the $2.4K first place prize and your equity increases to 21%. If you fold, you will have 578,550 left with your equity dropping only slightly to 14%. I'm hoping somebody in the forum can confirm my calculations that you need ~78% probability to make it +$EV to call [x * +5% + (1-x) * -16% + (1-x) * -2% ?].

Your top set of Kings is losing to:
[Ahxh, 6h5h, 7h6h]
Less likely: [A2, 76o, Qhxh & lower flushes; 62]

In a cash game, it may be correct to make a crying call, but with the ICM factor, I should fold and cry even more! Based on previous conversations with sn1perb0y, I believe he would fold in this spot.

I haven't been crying but also whining and thinking of this hand over and over again. Thank you for your insight blondfish <3

BlondeFish

Milo;379211 wroteMe? I likely would have been all-in before the river, so what do I know?

Overbetting all-in UTG with KK would have been +$EV, but not optimal. With the only bigger stack than me in the BB, I would have raised more than a min-raise. Due to the huge difference between the $1,700 second place money and only $398 for next one out, EvigGli the Supernova probably knew that he can put extreme pressure on sn1perb0y such as going all-in in the next hand SB vs BB with ANY TWO CARDS, and most players would not be able to call with the correct range of hands (3% in this case or 99+).

reibs

BlondeFish;379240 wroteAt the beginning of the hand, chipleader EvigGli's equity of the $7,999 remaining prize pool is 17.4%. You are 2nd in chips with 15.9% equity. You need 37.5% probability that you have the better hand to make it +cEV to call.

If you call and he shows a flush or straight, then you are eliminated in 7th place with only $398. If your call is correct, you are the chip leader for the $2.4K first place prize and your equity increases to 21%. If you fold, you will have 578,550 left with your equity dropping only slightly to 14%. I'm hoping somebody in the forum can confirm my calculations that you need ~78% probability to make it +$EV to call [x * +5% + (1-x) * -16% + (1-x) * -2% ?].

Your top set of Kings is losing to:
[Ahxh, 6h5h, 7h6h]
Less likely: [A2, 76o, Qhxh & lower flushes; 62]

In a cash game, it may be correct to make a crying call, but with the ICM factor, I should fold and cry even more! Based on previous conversations with sn1perb0y, I believe he would fold in this spot.

I need to spend some time learning this. Not that I would use the math in game but it would be good to have a rough idea anyways.

Ur math looks sane but I don't know obv. Thanks tho for showing the math.

pkrfce9

sn1perb0y;379244 wroteI haven't been crying but also whining and thinking of this hand over and over again. Thank you for your insight blondfish <3

I figured you folded and were looking to reinforce you made a good decision.

Maybe strictly from a $ decision folding was correct. I'm not sure but if it was incorrect then probably not by much. I think you can justify either choice by tweaking the parameters one way or the other. What % do you need to be against his range to make a $ profitable call?

On the other hand, if you win this hand it probably positions you well to steamroll the table? Is there any value to you from winning the tourney over and above the cash? I don't know but that might push you more to a call.

I think he shoves way more hands that you beat rather than the other way round. Just not sure if it is profitable to call.

Nice discussion.

tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

[deleted]

I snap call here and don't feel bad about it

does villian really peel flop with a gutter? no way with that board texture, his x/r on turn is confusing as well

a competent, good player (like whats described) will x/r with a 6x in his hand here, and will bluff river with most high hearts. good players will put you in gross positions like this post , knowing full well about ICM implications

i put him on exactly a lower set or 2 pr here almost always

Also might want to think streets ahead... when you flat the turn, there's no better card for us on the river, and we still folded?

T8urmoney

sn1perb0y;379243 wroteThank you for responding here, I don't understand why would he over pot bet river with sets and 2 pair when there is a lot of hands that i beat him with?Also isn't two pair and sets too strong to turn into a bluff here? I think that he would just value bet his two pairs and sets since a jam would just fold worse and get better to call no?

Can't he have a flush-straight combos on the turn like AhXh that would raise there?

)

Sets and 2 pair would beat most of your perceived range. These over shoves from good players are more often for value, and rarely a bluff in my experience.

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