I'm not good enough to fold this...

Bfillmaff

pkrfce9;377800 wroteYou busted a few hands ago with 72 when you hit middle pair on the flop and shoved almost 50 bbs into top pair, turned 2pr then got rivered by higher 2pr. You are on tilt and re bought for 120bbs.

Regarding the 72 game, I think the quote above is is a pretty good example of how people can get so carried away with this that it isn't about the 6BB's any more, it's for the "gotcha" at the end.

Startles point about only adding one more hand to the range is valid, but I'm wondering how, (if even possible) we can quantify the "going nuts" factor with that game. Did he ship it for a laugh, so he can flip over 72 soooted?

On the flip side, the shove doesn't feel like AA or KK... but perhaps thats exactly what it is... AA shoving because he knows it feels like 72? He's savvy, and he knows you are tilting... so its possible.

TBH I have no idea. I probably call JJ+ and AK, otherwise forefeit my 8BB's and wait for a better spot?

BlondeFish

pkrfce9;377883 wroteIf I get some time on my computer I'll try to put together some hand ranges to aid the analysis.

If you post your analysis before I have to leave for juicy live game in the GTA, I'll reply with some math.

pokerJAH;377908 wroteAx, Kx and Qx are likely good here. Push and pray.

Can we please play $2/$5 7-2 game at the next Forumers' Night Out on July 25? ;)

pkrfce9

Bfillmaff;377911 wroteRegarding the 72 game, I think the quote above is is a pretty good example of how people can get so carried away with this that it isn't about the 6BB's any more, it's for the "gotcha" at the end.

Startles point about only adding one more hand to the range is valid, but I'm wondering how, (if even possible) we can quantify the "going nuts" factor with that game. Did he ship it for a laugh, so he can flip over 72 soooted?

On the flip side, the shove doesn't feel like AA or KK... but perhaps thats exactly what it is... AA shoving because he knows it feels like 72? He's savvy, and he knows you are tilting... so its possible.

TBH I have no idea. I probably call JJ+ and AK, otherwise forefeit my 8BB's and wait for a better spot?

This is pure gold.

But you might be forfeiting 10bbs. DUCY?

tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

Bfillmaff

ha, yeah good chance its 10BB's.

Plus now you have to call him the next time, at which point he'll show you AA.

JimmyHo

BlondeFish;377912 wrote
Can we please play $2/$5 7-2 game at the next Forumers' Night Out on July 25? ;)

Wat? dont think wb can be programmed for 72 game.

BlondeFish

pokerJAH;377918 wroteWat?

The next Forumers' Night Out is at Bill's poker club, where pkrfce9, Milo & runit4times have been winning Brantford $1,090 or other entries. If pkrfce9 doesn't bring back GOT-S3 DVD, he will have to play credit card roulette with Bill to pay for all the free food & drinks.

P.S. Congrats to Bill for cashing last night at Brantford.

piggypie123

Atta boy Bill!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

pkrfce9

please let's keep the thread to the topic at hand

so i did some figuring on ranges for utg and button. these could be way off but they are a starting point for discussion.

utg raise 41%: 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K8o+, Q4s+, Q9o+, J7s+, J8o+, T7s+, T9o, 97s+, 87s, 72s, 72o
btn 3b: 16%: 88+, A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KTo+, Q9s+, QTo+, JTs, 72s, 72o
utg shove 8%: AdAc, KdKc, KhKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JJ-88, ATs+, AQo+, KTs+, QJs, 72s, 72o

I believe 4-handed, UTG would be opening fairly wide. For sure 72 but we could take out a few of the weaker hands if people think this is too wide.

I believe you would always 3-bet 72 from the button, along with a range that plays well against UTG's opening range. I could probably throw in some bluffy hands too.

UTG will only shove QQ+ sometimes, so I have narrowed the selection of these. I have put 72 in the shoving range as I believe this is what we all believe to be true but I'm not sure since we are both fairly deep stacked. He did fold/show 72 earlier when you 3-bet him, however, so he may be willing to shove this time.

Startles

Nice. In that scenario I suspect we need to call more than aq and tt.

It might be helpful as well, to describe your villains response to 3bets in general particularly whether they tend to be flatting or folding to them.

pkrfce9

He has called 70-80% of the 3-bets. The only fold I can recall where he showed was the 72.

Startles

pkrfce9;377934 wroteHe has called 70-80% of the 3-bets. The only fold I can recall where he showed was the 72.

I might be capable of doing some HR calcs to show a calling range with these given ranges. I'll have to try after my session today.

We can however note how weak their flatting range is vs your 3bets. I think then we might consider opening up quite a bit with hands that dominate their weak flatting hands, hands that win at showdown (Ax Kx etc.) and hands that play well postflop (suited connectors etc.).

This is why its always an interesting question to me, about finding the exact cut off hand to call, because its not really a huge loss if we call with 99 but should have only called TT+, yet when we start to open up and take advantage of their tendancy to flat our 3bets, the change in dynamic is not only directly profitable, but it also cuts down on the 'tough' decisions we will face.

It does seem quite interesting that they folded 72, seems like a standard thing to put it in their 3bet shoving range. I think it will be helpful to look at both scenarios as well as a mix of sometimes shoving sometimes folding.

pkrfce9

the earlier 72 fold was in response to your 3-bet. i think that 3-bet was something on the order of 15-20bbs when you were shorter stacked, maybe 60-80bbs. his read is you were unlikely to fold in that spot

pkrfce9

So... /thread?

tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

[deleted]

Yeah

Startles

I think i got it, but we can't just rely on my accuracy (truly cannot) :-\

Seems like it passes the sanity test though which is a good start (unless players feel this range is quite off). It might be useful and interesting to tweak the ranges a little which I can probably do as well. I gave everyone 120 since we are interested in your effective stack size (120?).

If we take 72o out of villains 4bet shove range our range shrinks to Ako, AQs+ TT+

If they shove 72o and 72s 50% each our range shifts to 99+ AQo+ AQs+

If they shove only 72s we call 99+ AQs+ Ako+

pkrfce9

Your conclusion on the correct calling ranges makes sense to me.

Can you explain what some of that stuff on the chart means?

tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

Startles

pkrfce9;378063 wroteYour conclusion on the correct calling ranges makes sense to me.

Can you explain what some of that stuff on the chart means?

tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU

The ranges on the right in green and red show the ev where red is - and green is + (hence green = call). The number are the bbs we win or lose when we call.

The rest on the left shows the ranges chosen with the % and the hands and the raise size. We are only concerned with the one tree that rep this hand so we can ignore all other lines like what happens if you and cu folded pre.

We also have to factor in the times that cu 4bet shoves with 72 and you call and lose and so pay them out. They don't have 72 often tho and you are prob quite ahead when you do have it. Hoping someone beats me to the math tho.

So I THINK the ev numbers correctly reflect what they mean, in that if we are making 1.87bbs per call vs a 4bet but on average we pay 1.9 bbs to the cu for losing to 72o, then we might fold. But suspect its not anywhere near that much.

BlondeFish

I was too busy playing the GTA tourneys to crunch the math, but my gut feeling was not indigestion after all? ;)

BlondeFish;377905 wrote[TT+, AK, AQs+].

Startles;378061 wroteIf we take 72o out of villains 4bet shove range our range shrinks to Ako, AQs+ TT+

If they shove 72o and 72s 50% each our range shifts to 99+ AQo+ AQs+

If they shove only 72s we call 99+ AQs+ Ako+

pkrfce9

Does your chart include shoving with all combos qq+? I wanted to exclude some of those to reflect he wouldn't shove those all the time. They are too strong.

Startles

pkrfce9;378079 wroteDoes your chart include shoving with all combos qq+? I wanted to exclude some of those to reflect he wouldn't shove those all the time. They are too strong.

I tried to match it to this, but ya its another page not in the picture:

utg shove 8%: AdAc, KdKc, KhKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JJ-88, ATs+, AQo+, KTs+, QJs, 72s, 72o

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