march break prop bet

trigs

(i put this in BAP/Staking due to the glaring lack of a prop bets thread on this forum!)

despite me still feeling sick, i've decided to go through with this bet for the march break. official start date is march 7th.

there are a few slight changes though. no big deal if those who were interested before change their minds now btw. i'll run this just against my one friend regardless.

here are the rules:

i must play a minimum of 500 hands per day with a maximum of 2500 hands per day for ten days.
all hands must be played at zoom omaha $0.02-$0.05 with an 100BB buy-in.
i am able to top up and/or rebuy whenever i want with any top ups and rebuys counting against my profits (i.e. i have to win it all back)
i can sit at as many tables as i want at any time to a maximum of 4
a day will run from 12:00am to 11:59pm.
it doesn't matter when i start to play that day, but i must be finished by 11:59pm.
i have 2 "freebee" days in which i am allowed to take a day off when needed (to accommodate real life crap)
every day i play, i must finish with a profit (even if by one cent).
i am allowed to take as many breaks as i want, whenever i want, whether i am up or down, as long as i complete my day in the allotted time.
i am not forced to play hands.
if i fail to show a profit after any single day of play - i lose.
if i fail to complete the minimum 500 hands in any single day of play - i lose.
if i play at least 500 hands per day and i show a profit every day for the ten days - i win.
after completing the minimum 500 hands with a profit in a day and posting the results here, i am allowed to continue playing if i want to without the extra hands counting towards this prop bet.

i am offering odds at 10-1 for $10 (so for example, if i lose i pay you $10, but if i win you pay me 10*$10=$100). i'm the trusting type so i'm assuming that we don't need to escrow money for this (please don't make me stop trusting people).

i already have some action at 15-1 for $20 with a friend (let's just call him mike), but i'm willing to offer 10-1 to some on here.

according to the original thread, payperview, The Prophet 22 and UBetIFold all showed interest and therefore get first chance to accept at these specifications. if they choose not to, i'll accept others at first come, first served. i will most likely just be looking for 3 people at $10 each.

i will be posting my daily progress/stats here along with a text file of the hand histories for verification. (btw, is there a better way to track my progress? can't rail zoom.)

participants:

"mike" at 15-1 for $20

i think that's it. #bringiton #shitjustgotreal

GTA Poker

Not to kill your action but I feel those odds are heavily scewed in your favour...I think I would offer 2.5-3:1 if I were doing this for only 8 days of play.

GTA Poker

Plus..
There is giraffes?

trigs

GTA Poker;370498 wroteNot to kill your action but I feel those odds are heavily scewed in your favour...I think I would offer 2.5-3:1 if I were doing this for only 8 days of play.

I'm still doing ten days of playing, but I have 12 days to complete them.

trigs

GTA Poker;370499 wrotePlus..
There is giraffes?

I'll have to work on it. My software is crap.

payperview

I have to agree with GTA in regards to the odds. I felt that 4:1 was fair. If your looking for 10:1 I will let others take this bet. I was giving you action for motivation. I don't want to light it on fire.
I believe you will win this bet.

The Prophet 22

payperview;370511 wroteI have to agree with GTA in regards to the odds. I felt that 4:1 was fair. If your looking for 10:1 I will let others take this bet. I was giving you action for motivation. I don't want to light it on fire.
I believe you will win this bet.

Not to split hairs but I was the one who said 4:1 was fair. GTA said this was a no doubter for someone to win. Having said that I would be willing to move to 5:1 but I think that would be more than fair motivation to "win a bet". Otherwise \i will pass and wish you the best!

Prophet22

PS Would are the odds of making it to Buzzzardd's in March. I will be back from Halifax and am heading out for the tournament.

trigs

payperview;370511 wroteI have to agree with GTA in regards to the odds. I felt that 4:1 was fair. If your looking for 10:1 I will let others take this bet. I was giving you action for motivation. I don't want to light it on fire.
I believe you will win this bet.

no prob. it's all good. i wish i was as confident in myself as you are in me ;)

trigs

The Prophet 22;370526 wroteNot to split hairs but I was the one who said 4:1 was fair. GTA said this was a no doubter for someone to win. Having said that I would be willing to move to 5:1 but I think that would be more than fair motivation to "win a bet". Otherwise \i will pass and wish you the best!

sorry, but i think i have to say no. like i said though, it's all good. maybe if i actually win this i'll consider offering another similar one in the future with "better" odds.

i'm not that confident tbh. i think it is possible and i can do it, but all it takes is one bad day out of ten and i'm done. if i lose majority of flips in a day, i'm done. i mean, even if i play perfectly for 2500 hands i could still end up negative.

i also want to factor in that this bet is not allowing me to play optimally all the time either, and therefore it could be cutting into my potential profits (which is a slight concern for me because i have limited time to play and march break is one time i actually can play a lot), so there's that too.

PS Would are the odds of making it to Buzzzardd's in March. I will be back from Halifax and am heading out for the tournament.

are you talking about the one on march 15th? it's definitely possible. the fact that it starts early afternoon makes it more likely. i'll have to talk to the ball-and-chain to make sure we don't already have plans that she allegedly told me about and that i just forgot. (apparently i already agreed to go to the states for a night over the break at some point - i don't recall agreeing to this though. funny how every time i forgot something it's always the thing she wanted to do :D)

payperview

Let us know how the bet goes with your friends. Please update us daily if possible. It would be fun to follow. Good Luck.

trigs

payperview;370573 wroteLet us know how the bet goes with your friends. Please update us daily if possible. It would be fun to follow. Good Luck.

thanks. i will post daily results in here.

trigs

figured i'd get an early start on day 1 (since i'm off work already and i'm just sitting around in an empty house today).

cruised through easily today. was never really in the red at all. had an early double up within the first 100 hands and technically i could have just check/folded all the way to secure a profit, but that's not fun and really i wasn't planning on doing that anyway (even though that was a legitimate concern for people betting against me obviously).

it probably wouldn't have made a difference if i mentioned it, but my plan was to play the first 400 hands like i normally do and then maybe start to tighten up when i'm approaching 500 if i needed to. that is, unless i was crazy behind from the start because then i'd probably have to change up my strategy.

my overall strategy is to just start off on one table and try to build a stack. i don't need to rush to hit 500 as i should have the time in the day to hit that mark no problem. once i get a decent stack on one table, i may open another depending on how i'm feeling and how i'm rolling. i played about 200 hands on one table before opening a second today.

stats for day 1:

Hands Played: 500
Saw Flop: 14% (keep in mind that this isn't VPIP)
Pots Won at SD: 63%
Pots Won w/o SD: 57
Profit: $7.93
BBs/100: 31.7

(decided to finally give in and upgrade to PT4 with the omaha addition)

not sure why it came up as 509 hands. oh well, it's still a girrrrafe.

payperview

Nice little start. How long did it take you to complete the 509 hands.

trigs

payperview;370608 wroteNice little start. How long did it take you to complete the 509 hands.

thanks. took a little over 2 hours.

eating some lunch now and most likely playing some more (which won't count towards this bet as i've achieve the quota for the day).

trigs

well, day 2 is in the books. it took a little longer than day 1 though. i actually stopped at the 500th hand thinking that i was up but found out i was like $0.30 short. so i jumped back on the tables and then just lost and lost for a bit. around the 1000th hand i lost a 3 way all in holding AAQJ double suited which would have saved my day then. took another 250-ish before i finally managed to win a nice one and get back in the black for like a buck.

Day 2 stats:
Hands Played: 1259
Saw Flop: 15%
Pots Won at SD: 46%
Profit: $1.29
BBs/100: 2.0

Overall stats:
Hands Played: 1798
Profit: $9.22
BBs/100: 10.3

here's the last hand that saved my day:

PokerStars Zoom Hand Omaha Pot Limit ($0.02/$0.05)
Table 'Lynx' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: bzk750 ($0.46 in chips)
Seat 2: GirlieBurger ($6.27 in chips)
Seat 3: playeri ($5.43 in chips)
Seat 4: m_dolens ($15.66 in chips)
Seat 5: gaetfish ($1.94 in chips)
Seat 6: rivar74 ($5 in chips)
GirlieBurger: posts small blind $0.02
playeri: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to m_dolens [Js Kh Kd Td]
m_dolens: raises $0.12 to $0.17
gaetfish: folds
rivar74: folds
bzk750: raises $0.29 to $0.46 and is all-in
GirlieBurger: calls $0.44
playeri: folds
m_dolens: calls $0.29
*** FLOP *** [8d 6s Qc]
GirlieBurger: bets $0.90
m_dolens: calls $0.90
*** TURN *** [8d 6s Qc] [9h]
GirlieBurger: bets $1.75
m_dolens: raises $3.31 to $5.06
GirlieBurger: calls $3.16 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.15) returned to m_dolens
*** RIVER *** [8d 6s Qc 9h] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
GirlieBurger: shows [Qs 8h Ac Qh] (three of a kind, Queens)
m_dolens: shows [Js Kh Kd Td] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
m_dolens collected $11.17 from side pot
bzk750: mucks hand
m_dolens collected $1.37 from main pot

UBetIFold

Hey, sorry. I just got back from
Vacation where I had no access to my phone or internet.

As you mentioned, I would/will be interested. I had no idea your already 2 days in. Just caught the thread now.

Too late now? Either way I'd like to rail this thread whether I have action in it or not. It is an interesting prop.

Let me know.

trigs

UBetIFold;370687 wroteHey, sorry. I just got back from
Vacation where I had no access to my phone or internet.

As you mentioned, I would/will be interested. I had no idea your already 2 days in. Just caught the thread now.

Too late now? Either way I'd like to rail this thread whether I have action in it or not. It is an interesting prop.

Let me know.

idk. i mean, it's not fair for you technically. i'm fine either way to be honest.

trigs

it was another tough day, but i only needed 582 hands to finish. it felt like i lost a lot of big pots where i was the favourite.

btw, i can't include a graph for the overall stats because i've played extra hands in between and it's way too much of a pain in the ass to omit those.

Day 3 stats:

Hands Played: 582
Saw Flop: 16%
Pots Won at SD: 41%
Pots Won w/o SD: 59
Profit: $0.28
BBs/100: 0.96

Overall Stats:

Hands Played: 2380
Profit: $9.50
BBs/100: 7.98

UBetIFold

Lol, 3 days in now. I'll just rail I guess. I still think I'd be a huge favorite even after 3 winning days, maybe more so after 3 winning days. Best of luck to you!

trigs

Day 4 complete.

no real problems today. again, i had a couple bad beats that brought me back down but i was nowhere near the red for most of the 500 hands.

btw, there has to be something wrong with either PT4 or the pokerstars on-table stats because majority of the time the hand numbers aren't the same. usually there's just a few more on PT4 which is strange. if there were a few less that would make sense as some could have been errors, but so strange that there's always a handful more. also, the profit/loss always works out to the right amount despite the hand difference. idk, whatever.

Day 4 Stats:

Hands Played: 517
Saw Flop: 14%
Pots Won at SD: 60%
Pots Won w/o SD: 42
Profit: $6.79
BBs/100: 26.3

Overall Stats:

Hands Played: 2897
Profit: $16.29
BBs/100: 11.2