Macke
Ok so going to my local club tonight friendly place, fun, fun...
Now like just about everywhere i'm sure there are a few of those people who always spout the cliche "I get so unlucky.. I never hit" " I hate aces, they never win" blah blah.
Usually I just laugh and go along with it.. all in good fun.
But this past Monday it kind of got to me when a couple of those people were at my table and doing their usually act..one chick short with her small stack of 6k or so..like 5 bbs maybe...whining and she says "poker is 80% luck"
Now that I just find silly but w/e..
Age old question i'm sure but... how much "luck" do you think it is?
djgolfcan
As much as I post in the BBV section, I really do think poker is more about skill. Especially cash games or deep stacked tournaments. The key is being able to read your opponents, know their tendencies and play against that.
Sure they hit their two outter and beat you, but if there are cards to come, you can lose.
The stock answer is, over a single hand or tournament, luck is a factor, no question. Over time, the skilled players will be ahead.
Milo
I think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:
Player Skill\Luck
Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
Milo/Phill 10/90
Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D
djgolfcan
Fck it, I was wrong.
PokerStars Hand #89354880808: Tournament #656010675, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (125/250) - 2012/11/16 18:50:30 ET
Table '656010675 112' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Tatarin01982 (8780 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: biglee79 (15033 in chips)
Seat 3: bafo777 (35171 in chips)
Seat 5: weirdo-x (2338 in chips)
Seat 6: Herlichxy20 (19690 in chips)
Seat 7: MaxUdav (12968 in chips)
Seat 8: AMG2479 (10703 in chips)
Seat 9: djgolfcan (8220 in chips)
Tatarin01982: posts the ante 30
biglee79: posts the ante 30
bafo777: posts the ante 30
weirdo-x: posts the ante 30
Herlichxy20: posts the ante 30
MaxUdav: posts the ante 30
AMG2479: posts the ante 30
djgolfcan: posts the ante 30
biglee79: posts small blind 125
bafo777: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djgolfcan [Ks Kc]
weirdo-x: folds
Herlichxy20: folds
MaxUdav: raises 250 to 500
AMG2479: folds
djgolfcan: raises 1000 to 1500
Tatarin01982: folds
biglee79: folds
bafo777: folds
MaxUdav: raises 11438 to 12938 and is all-in
djgolfcan: calls 6690 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (4748) returned to MaxUdav
*** FLOP *** [7d 5h Jd]
*** TURN *** [7d 5h Jd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [7d 5h Jd Kd] [Td]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MaxUdav: shows [Qd Qs] (a flush, King high)
djgolfcan: shows [Ks Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
MaxUdav collected 16995 from pot
djgolfcan finished the tournament in 734th place
philliivey
Milo;338950 wroteI think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:
Player Skill\Luck
Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
Milo/Phill 10/90
Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D
Well that is way off............I can't win important flips.;)
Jacen299
Wasn't Phil hellmuth quoted saying if there was no luck in poker he would never lose?
Milo
There is a calculation available to compensate for the importance of the race, based on the % of your stack involved, but I am not just going to give that away . . .
trigs
i posted an article on here somewhat recently that was about a study that went through something like 40,000 hands (could be way more i can't remember) from a bunch of different players and concluded that the skilled players that play a tight aggressive style definitely showed that they were winners in the long term.
again, hand to hand, game to game, there's luck. skill wins out in the long run though.
compuease
Then how come I don't win in the long term? :confused:
oh,,, wait. nvm :-[
PocketsTwos
Whether you believe you are "lucky" or your opponent is, we all have the same amount of luck...it is the constant in poker.
Whereas, skill is the variable that makes some players winners, and others losers over the long run...
From Killer Poker by John Vorhaus...
"The only thing luck has going for it is that it keeps weak players in the game." and,
"Everyone is exactly as lucky as everyone else."
GTA Poker
About seven...Maybe six in Vegas on weekends
Movowelling
Milo;338950 wroteI think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:
Player Skill\Luck
Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
Milo/Phill 10/90
Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D
The HOUSE 100/0
Popkorn
Most people I talk to about poker agree saying in any session/short term it's 60% luck 40% skill. But in the long term it's 90% skill and 10% luck
[deleted]
no luck in poker
everyone is solid
DennisG
No luck, it's all 50/50...kind of like winning with aces. You win or you lose.
getem76
I can admit I am the most unlucky player on the face of the earth outside and in poker.....I make my profit by skill not luck, if I left it up to luck I really would never win!
Tcarnage
You also need to put in the player + game involved to really get an equation..
If you are playing HU SNG's vs a major fish, you will do a lot better and need less luck than playing the Sunday Million on Stars..
Card Dead
Milo;338950 wroteI think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:
Player Skill\Luck
Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
Milo/Phill 10/90
Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D
In hands I win 100/0
In hands I lose 0/100
neverlookback
DennisG;339837 wroteNo luck, it's all 50/50...kind of like winning with aces. You win or you lose.
ummm ya ok.. that would be ok if aces were always 50% to win. they are not
asxn557
I put this question to Russell Fox who is a CPA in Vegas who writes often on 2+2 about taxes for poker players. We met in June during the WSOP.
For the lower buyIn WSOP events, he put luck at 30-40%. But he put luck at 100% for $80-$160 NL cash games, because at that level, everyone has pretty much the same amount of skill, and the difference in winning or losing comes down to the cards and luck.