Flush draw facing over pair

djgolfcan

PokerStars Hand #89241212295: Tournament #656010423, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2012/11/14 14:48:36 ET
Table '656010423 66' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: cap10hook (10922 in chips)
Seat 2: Andrey pit (4373 in chips)
Seat 3: djgolfcan (8345 in chips)
Seat 4: backfire88 (19422 in chips)
Seat 5: andewalker (5889 in chips)
Seat 6: Nuazo (10386 in chips)
Seat 7: oft&viel (5145 in chips)
Seat 8: e.grants (5108 in chips)
Seat 9: penev1948 (4938 in chips)
cap10hook: posts the ante 25
Andrey pit: posts the ante 25
djgolfcan: posts the ante 25
backfire88: posts the ante 25
andewalker: posts the ante 25
Nuazo: posts the ante 25
oft&viel: posts the ante 25
e.grants: posts the ante 25
penev1948: posts the ante 25
e.grants: posts small blind 125
penev1948: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djgolfcan [Th Tc]
cap10hook: folds
Andrey pit: folds
djgolfcan: raises 250 to 500
backfire88: folds
andewalker: raises 750 to 1250
Nuazo: folds
oft&viel: folds
e.grants: folds
penev1948: folds
djgolfcan: calls 750
*** FLOP *** [4h Ah 5h]
djgolfcan: checks
andewalker: bets 3000
djgolfcan: ??

Pretty sure he has Ax with no heart. Should we be trying to hit our outs in this spot ?

trigs

you have around 7000 behind and he bets 3000 on flop. unless you have a read on him (which i'm assuming you don't) i fold here. you'd have to commit your stack (as a call on the flop would be pretty bad imo) and at best you may be 50-50 against his range i think if not worse. as played fold and wait for a better spot. you still have plenty of chips.

depending on villain's aggression i may have 3bet preflop though.

PocketsTwos

I agree with above, but I also don't mind the call. I'd want to see the flop too....the A on the flop is the obvious scare card, and I don't like your outs, as you are likely still behind.

I'd fold considering your stack size and see more cards,....better to fold the better hand than commit more chips with the worse of it IMHO.

10 10 is one of those hands....

GTA Poker

I have no idea how you can have a read like that but if that's your read then it's an easy show with 11 cleanouts... pretty basic pot odds info no?

PocketsTwos

GTA Poker;338700 wroteI have no idea how you can have a read like that but if that's your read then it's an easy show with 11 cleanouts... pretty basic pot odds info no?

Perhaps....but why commit even with those amt. of outs? He is still a dog (assumming his read is on) at 40% or so...why not wait for a better spot?

GTA Poker

PocketsTwos;338702 wrotePerhaps....but why commit even with those amt. of outs? He is still a dog (assumming his read is on) at 40% or so...why not wait for a better spot?

Cuz math?

betrthanphil

shove pre.......problem solved. flatted a 3b from a 23bb stack is biggest mistakes people make shove it or fold it...

PocketsTwos

GTA Poker;338707 wroteCuz math?

EV = +...... if the read is 100%.

PocketsTwos

Maybe this question belongs in another thread, but it does relate to the OP's question.

Why is it when we are calculating the possible # of outs for a given hand - in this case, OP has 11 outs to improve:

2 - 10's
9 - Hearts

11 - Total Outs.

That when calculating the # of outs, we don't subtract either the villian's outs to improve (in this case his 2 - Ace's), or the likelihood that some of the hearts have been dealt out to the other players in the hand (8 players x 2 cards = 16.../ 4 suits = 4 hearts) likely not available as out's for our hero?

Sorry if this is really dumb,but it has been bugging me for some time. None of the poker books I've read ever mention this when it comes to calculating odds.

[deleted]

nvml

HammerDad

If villain doesn't have a heart, then the math is near right. If villain does, it is likely a bigger H then ours, as the 3bet likely means AQ+.

Villain could also have JJ-KK and is betting as you played the hand passively and you may be able to push them off the hand with a shove...but I think that is somewhat unlikely given their huge bet. The flop bet commits them to calling anything we do, and they likely know this.

I shove pre and fold now.