Time to wait or time to shove?

RWPKRPLR

Last night I bubbled for a final table! I'm a little curious if I should of folded this hand or played it the same way I did!

When we got down to hand for hand, my previous eleven hands were absolute garbage.(not saying A7 is great, but in this spot it seemed like a decent hand to shove.) The reason I say that is that all my opponents had be folding to 3bets and all ins!

I know shoving against the the chip leader is almost always deadly, but I felt a little desperate with my stack size, lack of cards and the blinds quickly approaching.

PokerStars - $2+$0.20|8000/16000 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker

Hero (CO): 89,789.00
BTN: 246,775.00
SB: 197,621.00
BB: 398,613.00
UTG: 1,365,663.00

Hero posts ante 2,000.00, BTN posts ante 2,000.00, SB posts ante 2,000.00, BB posts ante 2,000.00, UTG posts ante 2,000.00, SB posts SB 8,000.00, BB posts BB 16,000.00

Pre Flop: (34000.00) Hero has 7d Ac

UTG raises to 38,444.00, Hero raises to 87,789.00 and is all-in, fold, SB raises to 195,621.00 and is all-in, fold, fold

Flop: (240022.00, 2 players) 3h 5h 9h

Turn: (240022.00, 2 players) 4d

River: (240022.00, 2 players) 7h

SB shows Ad Kh (Flush, King High) (Pre 74%, Flop 90%, Turn 85%)
Hero shows 7d Ac (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 26%, Flop 10%, Turn 15%)
SB wins 240,022.00

So please express you thoughts....

Richard~

my first reaction is that blinding down to this extremely short a stack and shoving a spot like this vs a tight range is completely backwards from what you want to be doing

RWPKRPLR

Richard~;311040 wrotemy first reaction is that blinding down to this extremely short a stack and shoving a spot like this vs a tight range is completely backwards from what you want to be doing

I had lost a key flip earlier with Ak vs 55 for 350k just before we went hand for hand. that put me down to 1.5x BB.... Double up'd a couple times with J4s and AKo... then then eleven hands of crap....

[deleted]

RWPKRPLR;311039 wroteThe reason I say that is that all my opponents had be folding to 3bets and all ins!

this is only a factor if the chip leader will fold, to you even when you are the shortstack. But here I don't expect him to, not when you have a lot less than 10bbs. Its different obv if someone else goes all in behind you and the leader folds....I still don't think he would fold if it was just your shove.

So if he folds sometimes there is merit, but I would really rather push first in with no previous action, with weaker cards rather than get in with an off suit weakish ace on the ft bubble.

Icm/nash, rule all money spots and its my understanding that it doesn't like spots where you know you are going to be called and it largely prefers suited aces. If you gotta hit the blind hit the blind.

RWPKRPLR

I usually try to be in first with my allins like you said, but in this case I didn't want the blinds to hit me again without making a move. I will have to look at this ICM/ Nash later when I get home, I'm not familiar with it at all..

Thanks for taking the time to post, all these extra avenues that have been introduced to me have helped me on my way.

ReeferCash

Shoving against the chip leader is sometimes great because you have a ton of fold equity if you know he's NOT going to risk his chip advantage while holding marginal hands.

If you open-shove, it isn't that bad. But in this spot you 3-bet Shoved with LITTLE to NO FOLD EQUITY with a bad hand. And then SB joined the party...