200NL: Got there... or did I?

Vekked

Kind of a fun hand. Villain is 15/12 with a 58% fold to 3B/53% fold to c-bet. He's playing at least 16 or more tables at the moment, surely a reg. Only notable hand with us is one where he called my 3-bet BvB with AJo, but nothing that interesting.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -

UTG+1 ($290.56)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($81)
MP3 ($392.71)
CO ($327.12)
Hero (Button) ($241.83)
SB ($200)
BB ($184.99)
UTG ($125.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4

, 6

5 folds, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, CO calls $13

Flop: ($39) J

, 3

, 8

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $19, CO calls $19

Turn: ($77) 8

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $40, CO calls $40

River: ($157) 5

(2 players)
CO bets $250.12 ($165 effective) (All-In)

Hero...?

Cerberus

Only two things beating you are better flush or boat. Sadly, I think he has one of them, just not sure which. You said he's playing 16 tables, which I agree says reg. Seems like a standard reg move, shoving the nuts on the river so they can either win a solid pot and move on to the next hand or win a big pot and move on to the next hand...

Or I guess option 3 would be he was planning to bluff any heart on the river.

Hellmuth's Mole

Quad 8's ftw.

[deleted]

Never folding here.

He has an 8

jdAA88

Sick hand lol, not familiar at all with 200nl full ring now, it's obv a tough game, but do most regs flat JJ here pre?

Vekked

costanza;301545 wroteNever folding here.

He has an 8

If he could be value-shoving worse it wouldn't be a fun spot at all :P. This would be among the worst lines possible for an 8 to take, not to mention that the only 8s he will have are suited ones, and 8x of hearts will c/r the flop almost always, leaving only 8x of clubs combo's. He only have a few reasonable ones (9c8c, 8c7c, very few others), and I don't see why he wouldn't c/r the turn, and if he didn't he absolutely wouldn't donk shove river when the flush gets there and I can conceivably have it.

jdAA88;301546 wroteSick hand lol, not familiar at all with 200nl full ring now, it's obv a tough game, but do most regs flat JJ here pre?

In general yes, vs. me slightly less so because I 3-bet a lot, but given that we're slightly deeper and this particular villain doesn't have as much history with me because we play different hours most days, I think he flats almost always.

Cerberus

The more I think about this hand (it's stock day, kind of mind numbingly boring at times, so my mind wanders), the more I think I curse fold. And by curse fold I mean:

Oh for *#%!'s sake! Are you #$*&ing kidding me?

asxn557

Him playing that many tables, he's only playing top 10 hands. I'm thinking AKh the way it played out. JJ or 88 would have check/raised the flop, not check/called. Same with the turn. But if top 10 hands, I would think not 88. Only other hand would be AA or KK with one heart. Definitely not a bluff. Your bet sizing on the turn didn't put enough pressure on him to make him think he's behind. It's a fold to a higher flush.

[deleted]

Villains range never seems to have air in yours and btp's cash game posts and it confuses me because it makes spots like this easy folds, no?

Trips is not likely because he would be turning his hand into a bluff when he could check call or make a thin value bet

Flush draws with overs would check raise flop and try get it in?

QQ+ etc 4bets pre mostly but would often check call the river etc. and not turn into a bluff by jamming.

Set mining hands should be out of the question?

fold to 3bet 53% needs to be a large sample but I imagine you haven't really not 3bet this guy...but i think it suggests he doesn't really call vs 3bets other than to not get run over and to sometimes trap

He prob has some mid suited heart type hands here for deception, but almost always JJ?

He prob check raise the flop or turn with hearts sometimes.

El foldo?

Vekked

his fold to 3B isn't a huge sample, but it's low enough that I think it's reasonable to assume he's got a bit wider range than most in this spot, but that's not necessarily a good thing

[deleted]

Vekked;301658 wrotehis fold to 3B isn't a huge sample, but it's low enough that I think it's reasonable to assume he's got a bit wider range than most in this spot, but that's not necessarily a good thing

can we assume at this level that if he does it for value he'll do it as a bluff?

Vekked

darbday;301665 wrotecan we assume at this level that if he does it for value he'll do it as a bluff?

This river shove? Not necessarily, I don't think you can assume that at any level by default. Some players will be balanced but I think there's a lot of spots where people are just pure nuts or pure air.

jdAA88

darbday;301649 wroteHe prob has some mid suited heart type hands here for deception, but almost always JJ?

He prob check raise the flop or turn with hearts sometimes.

this

Vekked

Cool, anymore replies before I drop the results? haha

Hellmuth's Mole

Vekked;301727 wroteCool, anymore replies before I drop the results? haha

In all honesty, the more I think about it, the river overjam seems like a steal. He might be thinking with all the possibilities on that board it may not be that hard moving you off a hand especially one like you have.

Although I still see quads here.

betrthanphil

I think its possible that if hes a thinking player he could have like 109s or q10s and from the flop play to rep the flush if it comes also, giving him the correct amount of "outs" to call with here. Also I think its possible to play an 8 this way however Id see it more profitable to check raise turn as that is what Id do with both flush draws and an 8, infact my whole value range I check raise this particular turn card. If hes a reg Im definatly calling if not because I think I have the best hand a large amount of the time, but to get the info on what hes taking this line with.

[deleted]

betrthanphil;301740 wroteI think its possible that if hes a thinking player he could have like 109s or q10s and from the flop play to rep the flush if it comes also, giving him the correct amount of "outs" to call with here. Also I think its possible to play an 8 this way however Id see it more profitable to check raise turn as that is what Id do with both flush draws and an 8, infact my whole value range I check raise this particular turn card. If hes a reg Im definatly calling if not because I think I have the best hand a large amount of the time, but to get the info on what hes taking this line with.

i agree this is what villains range should look like, and then its kinda a call because of so few jj combos, and you'd think he'd play better flushes not so obv.

Also that jamming jj here almost turns his hand into a bluff because villain is getting paid off vs flushes by check raising, and never really by worse (maybe 8x hands?) , and sometimes might fold out weaker flushes....

and V's range is not so strong that villain would want to jam a full house when a flush hits..

but if we can't assume hes balancing with air then id fold still i guess :-\

Vekked

villain is super definitely not almost turning his hand into a bluff if he has JJ. I think I know what you mean, but "turning your hand into a bluff" refers to when you overplay your hand making it hard to get called by worse. He can't really overplay the nuts here...

Vekked

betrthanphil;301740 wroteI think its possible that if hes a thinking player he could have like 109s or q10s and from the flop play to rep the flush if it comes also, giving him the correct amount of "outs" to call with here. Also I think its possible to play an 8 this way however Id see it more profitable to check raise turn as that is what Id do with both flush draws and an 8, infact my whole value range I check raise this particular turn card. If hes a reg Im definatly calling if not because I think I have the best hand a large amount of the time, but to get the info on what hes taking this line with.

Good analysis. That's more along the lines I'm thinking.

Vekked

Ok so here's my analysis:

His combo's of flushes here is really really small. Nearly all combo's of flush draws will c/r flop here, especially nut flush or combo draws when he's out of position, especially with my flop sizing. When he look at the hearts out there, it's really hard for him to have too many flushes. The 3456 of hearts are all out there, so the lowest hearts he could have are 8h7h an 9h8h, both which are pair + FDs that almost certainly c/r flop, and if they don't they're one of the least likely combo's to donk shove river given that if he holds those I basically can never have a lower flush (regardless of the fact that I actually did). The next lowest heart combo's are 9h7h and Th9h, both which c/r flop or turn for sure. QhTh isn't a likely holding, but it would again c/r flop. AhKh would 4-bet pre. That leaves AhQh and AhTh and KhQh, all which are very unlikely to just ck/call 2 streets OOP given that they're all NFD or 2 overs + FD (KQ is the most likely to ck/call flop I'd say). I think that most dry flush draws will c/r the turn because the 8 pairing is actually a decent card to represent, and he's usually going to be looking for some fold equity somewhere with those draws, and I think that's one of the nut cards to get it from.

So nearly all of his flush draws are going to c/r flop or turn given the board texture and him being OOP. He might have 1-2 combo's of flushes that get to river like that, but then we can discount them further for donk shoving the river, so he probably only shows up with 1 combo of flushes by river ever.

Now what about 8x hands that he's playing for value? Well that's pretty unlikey too because he's only going to play suited 8's, so he can only have 8hxh or 8cxc. Again for the reasons I talked about those hands are super unlikely for him to have, and it'd be suicide for him to jam 8cxc on the river like this, and super unlikely he would just call turn again. 8hxh is slightly more likely to play river like this but infinitely less like to just call on the flop.

So what kind of hands make sense? As some people said JJ is a fairly reasonable holding, he might c/r some % of the time, but I think he slowplays flop a fair bit with it, and then if he does call flop he's never c/r turn with a boat. It seems reasonable to donk jam on the river to look bluffy and make sure flushes don't hero fold to a river c/r or something. Something like T9s not hearts or QTs not hearts is very reasonable for the reasons BTP posted. He could even turn Jx into a bluff some of the time, not everyone would consider it but I think the odd tricky thinking player might. The important thing though is that his value range is just ridiculously small. It's JJ (which we have 3 combo's if he plays it like this 100% of the time), and maybe 2 combo's of flushes. We only need to be good here 30% of the time, so if he only had ~5 combo's of value hands, he only need to be bluffing 3 combo's of hands. So even if he only plays 1.5 combo of T9s like this, half a combo of QTs, and turns something else into a bluff a small % of the time, it's a profitable call.

I thought for a bit just because it was such a strange line but called expecting to be good quite often. He showed 77 no heart.