Nightly $55, 10 left, I have top pair, turn play?

Richard~

darbday;289508 wrote
add that with the fact that we don't want to build a big pot oop vs. a good lag player

This we do want. Most fun I've had in poker lately has come from this

HammerDad

darbday;289467 wroteNot that V needs a supporting vote but I felt like j9s is to good to 3bet here and that T8s would be a better choice (but i wouldn't be surprised if we could flat it too).

j9s is definitely an ok hand....when we are deeper. Early stages of a tournament, I can see playing this hand for top pair value vs an aggro player. But stacks are shorter now AND we are not the short stack.

There is value is just folding pre. By calling OOP with a marginal hand vs the 1 player who can bust us is definitely not a play I plan on making very often.

Theres a few reason's but one of them is surely we don't want to get 4 bet bluffed off a hand we would like to play post flop vs. a villain we think we have an idea how to exploit.

If we think we have an edge on villain, I agree. But villain has not shown us we have an edge. There are easier fish to fry at this point.

If villain is quite laggy we can pick a hand with decent equity and check call all the way, not completely blind....but even with a marginal hand we can pick up a lot of chips from villains air range which is the largest part of his holdings.

Agreed in so many ways. I can't say that is going to be true in so many scenarios. But, in this scenario..this close to top 3, I am not playing for top pair value with a pair of 9's...

yes i think so...as long as is makes some sense that we are ahead its exactly what we do vs a lag player. if he doesn't slow down he will leak all his chips to you on your marginal hands vs. his air.

this reminded me about some of our threads lately where people are lead into lag players and sometimes check raise them with draws. to me the kryptonite to lag play is fundamentally to check call. When you bet into a lag player he'll fold his air and call with everything that beats you. No????

Two above linked - I also agree that vs an aggro c/c is the way to go. They will barrel off chips in most cases. In this case, villain hasn't shown up light. Yes, has a high VPIP and aggression factor,....and they have position. Personally, I fold pre. If I call pre, I am folding the river expecting to see at worst KK that decided they could take a free card, but more likely a dirty 2 pair type hand.

Vekked

HammerDad;289465 wroteIMO flatting preflop is the WORST possible choice. Fold>raise>call.

We 5 handed at this point and 2nd in chips (if only slightly). While we can't play too passively, getting involved with marginal holdings OOP vs the big stack is going to be a -EV situation the vast majority of the time.

Are we actually play j9 suited for top pair value? Personally, I don't. Having TPMK is only going to get you value-towned in most instances, especially when TP is a 9.

You're ignoring the reads we have on this guy. Obviously in 90% of cases J9s isn't going to be that great of a hand here, but we're playing a guy who's likely opening 50%+ hands. You can't just think of your hand in terms of absolute value like "J9s isn't a good hand, we can't play it for top pair value because there are a lot of better hands", vs. someone playing 50%+ hands J9s plays absolutely fine and we can play top pair for value.

For more context let's consider the very next best hand we could have in terms of hand ranking, JTs. With JTs we probably are (or should be) defending our BB vs. a button raise against nearly anyone unless they're one of the nittiest players in poker, and even then it might be fine because if they're that nitty they probably aren't good. If we're defending JTs vs. someone opening 20% of buttons, are you telling me we don't open up our range to J9s even if someone's opening 50% of hands? Our flatting range should always have some correlation with our opponent's opening range, and it doesn't make any sense that we wouldn't flat wider than JTs vs. 2 vastly different player types.

For these reasons J9s should be solidly in our flatting range. I think you could even make a case for J8s or even J7s as well, J9s isn't even that close.

Vekked

HammerDad;289523 wrotej9s is definitely an ok hand....when we are deeper. Early stages of a tournament, I can see playing this hand for top pair value vs an aggro player. But stacks are shorter now AND we are not the short stack.

You have it backwards, we should be more likely to play top pair for value the shorter we get. The deeper we get the less often we play any 1 pair for value. If we have a 100BB and have top pair with J9 how often are we going to get stacks in and be good? If we have 10BB and top pair with J9 how often are we going to get stacks in and be good? (100BB - almost never, 10BB - almost always)

Vekked

asxn557;289493 wroteThere's been no discussion in this thread about why you didn't bet on the flop. Sure, against a Lag you're expecting him to bet, and he just checks. Don't you think a flop-bet would have gotten more information about whether his flush was actual or just air? IMO You bet the flop - he calls - he's got you already. You bet - he raises - he's behind - you push.

In general you need a VERY good reason to donk bet into someone who c-bets with a very high frequency. We don't have such a reason here. You're making some pretty wild assumptions about how he'll react to your donk bet and what it'll mean without actually having that info on this player.

HammerDad

Vekked;290011 wroteYou're ignoring the reads we have on this guy. Obviously in 90% of cases J9s isn't going to be that great of a hand here, but we're playing a guy who's likely opening 50%+ hands. You can't just think of your hand in terms of absolute value like "J9s isn't a good hand, we can't play it for top pair value because there are a lot of better hands", vs. someone playing 50%+ hands J9s plays absolutely fine and we can play top pair for value.

For more context let's consider the very next best hand we could have in terms of hand ranking, JTs. With JTs we probably are (or should be) defending our BB vs. a button raise against nearly anyone unless they're one of the nittiest players in poker, and even then it might be fine because if they're that nitty they probably aren't good. If we're defending JTs vs. someone opening 20% of buttons, are you telling me we don't open up our range to J9s even if someone's opening 50% of hands? Our flatting range should always have some correlation with our opponent's opening range, and it doesn't make any sense that we wouldn't flat wider than JTs vs. 2 vastly different player types.

For these reasons J9s should be solidly in our flatting range. I think you could even make a case for J8s or even J7s as well, J9s isn't even that close.

We are 5 handed and close to the money. Why in the world would we want to defend with such a marginal hand OOP against the 1 player at the table who can bust us, notwithstanding villains opening range?

Yes, there is a chance that we are a head of villains range here, but then again are we? I don't have poker stove at work, but I would think given the range of hands villain could have here (villain is raising 30%, but we don't have villains steal range) we are ever better then a 55/45 favourite, if we are favourite at all. And given the negative implied odds here vs our existing equity, this is such a simple fold and find a better spot.

I must correct something I did say before, I mentioned playing for TP value earlier and I will correct that.....I am pretty much never playing for TP value with J9.....early/late or whatever unless I am severely short stacked or villain has been super aggro and showing down light (in this case, villain has been aggro, but never showing down light).

Maybe it is my style of play, but I'd rather be the hammer then the nail.

Richard~

HammerDad;290070 wroteWe are 5 handed and close to the money. Why in the world would we want to defend with such a marginal hand OOP against the 1 player at the table who can bust us, notwithstanding villains opening range?

Yes, there is a chance that we are a head of villains range here, but then again are we? I don't have poker stove at work, but I would think given the range of hands villain could have here (villain is raising 30%, but we don't have villains steal range) we are ever better then a 55/45 favourite, if we are favourite at all. And given the negative implied odds here vs our existing equity, this is such a simple fold and find a better spot.

I must correct something I did say before, I mentioned playing for TP value earlier and I will correct that.....I am pretty much never playing for TP value with J9.....early/late or whatever unless I am severely short stacked or villain has been super aggro and showing down light (in this case, villain has been aggro, but never showing down light).

Maybe it is my style of play, but I'd rather be the hammer then the nail.

Then you probably have some major leaks with this

HammerDad

Richard~;290077 wroteThen you probably have some major leaks with this

Well, I'd take a minor leak vs getting into a spot that has very little positive EV in it.

Richard~

HammerDad;290078 wroteWell, I'd take a minor leak vs getting into a spot that has very little positive EV in it.

according to you that is

Vekked

HammerDad;290070 wroteWe are 5 handed and close to the money. Why in the world would we want to defend with such a marginal hand OOP against the 1 player at the table who can bust us, notwithstanding villains opening range?

Short answer: Because it's +EV. Whether he can bust us, whether our table is 9 handed or 5 handed, or it's close to the money or not, the only thing that matters is our EV and how those things affect it.

What are you doing with JTs here? Is it a marginal hand as well?

Yes, there is a chance that we are a head of villains range here, but then again are we? I don't have poker stove at work, but I would think given the range of hands villain could have here (villain is raising 30%, but we don't have villains steal range) we are ever better then a 55/45 favourite, if we are favourite at all. And given the negative implied odds here vs our existing equity, this is such a simple fold and find a better spot.

Our equity vs. his opening range if plugged into pokerstove is relatively meaningless. Yes it's going to show up as 45% or something, but what's that mean? That means that if he jams pre with 50% and we call his shove, we have 45% equity. If we have no decision but to get it in then we have 45% equity, but if we get to make more decisions and choose to get it in only when our equity is near the highest then it'll improve. When we flop top pair we're going to have over 70% equity vs. his range as opposed to 45%, and we can choose to get it in then, and fold when we flop nothing have like 20% equity.

HammerDad

Stoved it.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

604,443,312 games 1.078 secs 560,708,081 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.244% 38.27% 01.97% 231340777 11910101.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 59.756% 57.79% 01.97% 349282333 11910101.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

with j10

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,417,773,248 games 4.641 secs 520,959,544 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.549% 41.61% 01.94% 1005991092 46926954.00 { JTs }
Hand 1: 56.451% 54.51% 01.94% 1317928248 46926954.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

So either are pretty much -ev

Even if I increase villains range to 40% to take into consideration villains steal range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,273,925,248 games 5.843 secs 560,315,804 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.868% 41.13% 01.73% 1346677480 56788890.00 { J9s }
Hand 1: 57.132% 55.40% 01.73% 1813669988 56788890.00 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }

HammerDad

Vekked;290082 wrote Our equity vs. his opening range if plugged into pokerstove is relatively meaningless. Yes it's going to show up as 45% or something, but what's that mean? That means that if he jams pre with 50% and we call his shove, we have 45% equity. If we have no decision but to get it in then we have 45% equity, but if we get to make more decisions and choose to get it in only when our equity is near the highest then it'll improve. When we flop top pair we're going to have over 70% equity vs. his range as opposed to 45%, and we can choose to get it in then, and fold when we flop nothing have like 20% equity.

With TP, we have greater equity yes. I'm not suggesting we don't or arguing otherwise.

My position is this is a fold pre. With dead money, this may become ev neutral. But given the negative implied odds being either in the money or close, this becomes a fold.

If we have and edge post flop, this becomes and closer to a call. But villain as described is a winning reg we likely don't have an edge on, especially OOP.

I am just saying, this is a fold pre to avoid getting into spots just like this which may costs us lots of chips where we don't have to be involved.

betrthanphil

anyone who says this is a fold pre is playing way to tight simple as that. You just let buttons steal your blinds until you pick up Aces?

HammerDad

betrthanphil;290108 wroteanyone who says this is a fold pre is playing way to tight simple as that. You just let buttons steal your blinds until you pick up Aces?

No, not at all. I am generally a fairly loose player. But I prefer to pick my spots. This hand, vs a winning reg is going to -ev the vast majority of the time. There is likely easier pots to take then vs the one guy who can bust you.

betrthanphil

or the only guy who can double you up? why so negative haha
Winning mtt players thrive in these spots. Suppose to try to get to final 2-4 tables with a decent stack. 20-40bb....anything about that is gravy. Final 2-4 tables is where you will start to get some short table play, 5-7 players and this is the time to hammer the aggression, of course in appropiate spots. As vekked said, we can easily assume villian is raising 50%+ of the time in this spot. J9s is going to be a very good hand to play against that range. Just because we peel a flop doesnt mean we are going to get our stack in against this guy. We have a good stack to play against this guy, if your gonna be scared to play against regs then your gonna have a hard time winning and your doing exactly what they want. Why make it so easy for them?

HammerDad

I guess I am maybe putting too much emphasis on position vs winning reg with marginal hand.

Even vs 50% opening range we are rarely ahead.

Are we limp calling from UTG with this hand? Or are we open folding? Or even better raising from UTG?

Meh, not to beat a dead horse. I just think in this case, I fold.

betrthanphil

5 handed im raising for sure. Limping doesnt exist in tourney poker :P at least for me it doesnt haha.

HammerDad

betrthanphil;290115 wrote Limping doesnt exist in tourney poker :P at least for me it doesnt haha.

Agreed >:D

actyper

Is it racist that when you said Brazilian I automatically said call before I saw the hand?

[deleted]

HammerDad;290105 wroteStoved it.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

604,443,312 games 1.078 secs 560,708,081 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.244% 38.27% 01.97% 231340777 11910101.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 59.756% 57.79% 01.97% 349282333 11910101.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

with j10

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,417,773,248 games 4.641 secs 520,959,544 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.549% 41.61% 01.94% 1005991092 46926954.00 { JTs }
Hand 1: 56.451% 54.51% 01.94% 1317928248 46926954.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

So either are pretty much -ev

Even if I increase villains range to 40% to take into consideration villains steal range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,273,925,248 games 5.843 secs 560,315,804 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.868% 41.13% 01.73% 1346677480 56788890.00 { J9s }
Hand 1: 57.132% 55.40% 01.73% 1813669988 56788890.00 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }

In this post we forgot to incorporate the pot odds.... ???
these equities you post become giant calls

also when we talk about skill edge....people who fold here don't have the proper skill set to play this hand. They should fold, but the optimal play here will be to flat.

Lastly when talking about ev....its -ev to fold (or 0 ev) and +ev to call. One of the reason is we know villain will cbet with a weak range. This is how we will exploit that....

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