Wetts1012
One of my hands from the $550 at Yellowhead yesterday, not sure what I think about it.
12k starting stacks, and we are about 2 hours in, blinds @ 100/200, I have about 11k.
Despite what you know about me having played locally before, my image is for sure the tightest at the table. Im legitimately card dead (not even any 78ss I can play!).
Old aggro (Im gonna say russian?) dude with about 15k limps UTG.
Competent to good mid 40s guy raises to 700. He keeps talking about how good the games were 20 years ago, etc.
I flat in the BB.
Old dude flats, pot 2200.
J9J rainbow flop.
Me and old dude check, guy bets 1100, I call and old dude folds.
Turn 3, I check again. He checks back. Pot 4400.
River 5 and I lead for 3400.
Assuming you were paying attention to the fact that I havent played more than 2 hands in the past 2 hours, what is your calling range here if you are villain?
getem76
My calling range? Hard to say by never sitting with you but AA through QQ isnt an easy give up calling, ya maybe, tens maybe, 9 full Id pop it, any pair under is a fold minus 33 and 55 which really is possible on the turn after trying to steal it??
KJ calls, QJ probably maybe Ace 9....someone who wants to hero you off with AK maybe at best....just based on tightest at the table, I would like to think you have AJ suited or something, maybe J10 only because you started with seeing no hands at all....but what do I know not sitting with you!
windbreaker
Not sure how this exploits your image. I mean even though you have been tight for x hours, it doesn't strenghten your river lead betting range. All it does is alter your pre flop defending hand range. In this specific spot, your image isn't going to specfically alter your opponents calling range because you really haven't seen many hands post flop and thus he won't know your bluffing/value betting tendency.
As for the specific hand, I think your better off betting a lot smaller. A three quarter pot bet makes it a bluff or nuts situation. As your opponent, I would at least call with all jacks, tens plus...and with most nines...would depend on my live read.
asxn557
His standard pre-flop raise in position leads me to think 8's or better. Or face cards from AK to JT. I wouldn't put him on 10-9 or lower other than 99 or 88. Your pre-flop call to me doesn't represent J's or 9's or any higher pair. I think you'd raise with those to at least isolate guy and get rid of old dude.
Flop bet by guy after you check - only 1/2 the pot. Strength or feeler? I say feeler (not knowing how he's played to this point). I don't give him a J here - so AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KT. No 9. I think your call represents strength. I put you on a J - KJ, QJ, JT, J9.
Your check into the raiser on the turn - pretty common but no bet from him. Story seems the same.
Your bet on the river gives the same story - you have a J. His story so far doesn't say 3's or 5's. He has a busted straight draw or a lower pair but not 9's.
As villain, I'm only calling you with AJ, KJ, or QJ or 9's.
(btw - the most hands of yours I think I ever saw was last time in Bolton)
Tom
Milo
Please stop calling us mid-40's guys OLD . . . pretty please?
Villain had 99.
Richard~
To me not playing a hand in two hours just makes you more likely to go out of your way to win the one your playing ^^'
I'm probably folding anything less than a 9 though, unless I have a read
[deleted]
My calling range if im that guy is everything that i bet flop with except 8T and QT and like maybe AK.
just cause the turn check seems ultra weak....
not saying i feel that way but given the story and im some old russian dude...and keep in mind...i pretty much am vodka....
[deleted]
windbreaker;275982 wroteNot sure how this exploits your image. I mean even though you have been tight for x hours, it doesn't strenghten your river lead betting range. All it does is alter your pre flop defending hand range.
i want to argue this because when our preflop range shrinks our river range itself is quite small and our perceieved leading range gets confident...but wetts flatted from the blinds and i feel like that range is large regardless of the image and vpip
windbreaker
Not on this type of board and w/ that bet sizing. I agree that when you decrease your VPIP into pots, your hand strength when it goes to showdown will increase.
However, when wetts defends his bb....and check-calls flop, check-check turn, and leads river for 3/4 pot...he's polarizes his range to more bluff or Jx+/boat.
The bet on the river doesn't exploit a tight image at all. If Wetts VPIP thus far was 8% or 25%, it doesn't really change how often your opponent will call in this spot.
If we have seen Wetts bluffs these spots before, or seen him value bet thinly, or most significantly seen his value bet sizing or bluffing bet sizing before....it will significantly impact the chances percentage of times he gets called/raised here.
darbday;276011 wrotei want to argue this because when our preflop range shrinks our river range itself is quite small and our perceieved leading range gets confident...but wetts flatted from the blinds and i feel like that range is large regardless of the image and vpip
[deleted]
windbreaker;276021 wroteNot on this type of board and w/ that bet sizing. I agree that when you decrease your VPIP into pots, your hand strength when it goes to showdown will increase.
However, when wetts defends his bb....and check-calls flop, check-check turn, and leads river for 3/4 pot...he's polarizes his range to more bluff or Jx+/boat.
The bet on the river doesn't exploit a tight image at all. If Wetts VPIP thus far was 8% or 25%, it doesn't really change how often your opponent will call in this spot.
If we have seen Wetts bluffs these spots before, or seen him value bet thinly, or most significantly seen his value bet sizing or bluffing bet sizing before....it will significantly impact the chances percentage of times he gets called/raised here.
this quote and the one you quoted of mine agree....but i dont' think we are betting that flop with air after folding for 2 hours....in a multiway pot....percieved wise?
windbreaker
I'm confused...cause he check-called flop.
On the flop, there's a lot more combo of hands that he defends with that aren't trips/boat...especially given that there's two jacks on the flop.
[deleted]
windbreaker;276025 wroteI'm confused...cause he check-called flop.
no im confused....misread ....but im still gonna fell his range hit the board somewhat or is over pairs.... not air....
getem76
now whats interesting about this IMO, is the opponents calling range he wants to know, nothing about his own range LOL....something like 2 6s or something HAHA....but no seriously if you flip up and play no hands, its hard to just call you off without a boarderline monster, and really only a monster probably raises instead, Im guessing the bluff got picked off with a raise.
Wetts1012
getem76;276040 wrotenow whats interesting about this IMO, is the opponents calling range he wants to know, nothing about his own range LOL....
My hand is irrelevant.
Also, I thought I was bluffing on the river bet. But we can talk about value bluffing later....
getem76
that was the point I was making HA...you didnt get called off did you? Its kinda hard to have a monster there with your "range"
asxn557
Wetts pulled the exact same betting pattern with me in similar position. K on the river gave me K's on a unobvious board. Turns over quad 8's. If I'm villain, I'm only calling with Jx.
Wetts1012
I think windbreaker gave me the view of the hand I was looking for. I think this was a sizing error.
I had 88 in this hand. I got called by 77.
The hand really got me thinking about what a competent villain was thinking here, and where my mistake was. I mean really, even though I won the hand, I shouldnt have. My live bet sizing leaves room for improvement. So I guess on a spectrum of bluff -> nuts, I could have half and half each way with a 3/4 river bet?
My plan was to CR the turn or bomb the river based on my nitty white dude image.
So is a value 1/2 pot type bet here more appropriate to move me to a more nutted range, or do we overbet?
djgolfcan
As always, it depends. Since you haven't played many hands, you should have a tight image and a 1/2 pot bet on the river looks like a value bet, most of the time. And you should only get called by a Jack and maybe T-T.
An overbet on the river used to look like a bluff but I have seen the overbet for value so many times online now, I wonder which is standard any more.
Either way, I think this villain calls you, seems he can't let go of his mid pocket pair on a paired board.
Vekked
fold flop, although you might have the best hand at the time of your call, your equity is pretty awful vs. the majority of his range. I think if I got to the riv with 88 here and I decided to bet, it would most often be for value. I don't expect to fold out much that we don't already beat, and I expect him to have a fairly strong range for checking back the turn to pot control vs. a J, so he could have like QQ+ fairly easy. I think if you are betting, you have to be trying to fold him off a 9 or TT or something at least, so bet like 6k or something.
getem76
An interesting hand, 88 was under my range of what you should have, worse you got called by someone who doesnt know how to lay down a pair pretty much.....IMO he was the one with little experience, dont dwell upon it too much....for HIM this was an easy fold or raise to steal it spot!
People should not play hero when they think they are getting robbed in particular, not just because to see your hand, you lose more chips than you win doing things like that!