AKo, What would you do?

BBC Z

***** Hand History for Game 1476612793 *****
$1/$2 Hold'em - Saturday, January 22, 20:55:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 25519 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: twosnakestwo ( $57.25 )
Seat 2: JonBeazie ( $85.25 )
Seat 3: slicerj ( $38.5 )
Seat 4: lickemdnlow ( $92.5 )
Seat 5: jeffrey1018 ( $57 )
Seat 6: tippup ( $25.25 )
Seat 8: BBC_Z ( $53 )
Seat 9: jodi_lynn3 ( $45.5 )
Seat 10: jackieLeeR ( $58.25 )
Seat 7: StockDork8 ( $16 )
tippup posts small blind [$0.5].
StockDork8 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BBC_Z [ As Kc ]
BBC_Z raises [$2].
jodi_lynn3 calls [$2].
jackieLeeR calls [$2].
twosnakestwo calls [$2].
slicerj folds.
lickemdnlow folds.
jeffrey1018 folds.
tippup folds.
StockDork8 raises [$2].
BBC_Z calls [$1].
jodi_lynn3 calls [$1].
jackieLeeR calls [$1].
twosnakestwo calls [$1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Ts, Qh ]
StockDork8 bets [$1]. <-- BB.

What do you do? The pot is 15SB at this point and it's 5 handed.

Your 'reads' (aka Gametime+ stats) :
I'm UTG.
UTG+1 is LooseAgressive/Agressive
UTG+2 is Loose Passive Passive
UTG+3 is Loose Agressive Passive
No read on the BB
My 'Table Image' is Tight Agressive / Agressive.

I'll update the hand down the line. I'm curious to hear what you'd do.

wader

We know he's not on a flush draw he probablly has AA or KK or a set of Q's (unlikely). You only have 2 outs for sure Jc and Jh. Your Ace might be good if your up against KK......surely hes not reraising preflop with KJ. And of course theres always runner runner to catch your nut flush but we cant consider that. I fold. You only have two live outs, the pots laying 15:1 your odds of catching on the turn is something like 24:1. Of course if you do call beware that if you hit your A or K it could easily fill another oponnents straight. So pray for a J and the board not to pair.
Wader

Xsqueezeme

What's wrong with the J of diamonds???

BBC Z

We know he's not on a flush draw he probablly has AA or KK or a set of Q's (unlikely).

Why are you thinking AA or KK but not QQ? I'm already holding an Ace and a King so the probability I'm up against those three hands is equally small (since I know of three cards that arent in his hand).

Soup66

I would most likely fold. You figure with a reraise preflop, followed by a missed flop you are well behind. But of course you are thinking if you hit either of your cards you now hold the strong hand, which is why I hate playing AKo, even a missed flop is hard to lay down. In this situation I would say your only out is a J.

wader

Sorry boys my mistake it should be the other way around.....like BBC wrote and yes I missed the Jd.

SocietyRed

I'd raise him. if he reraised me back chances are he has a decent hand. I would call his reraise and if I missed the turn I would fold. From his bankroll size hes either a poor player of he's suffered a few bad beats. A raise would give you a good idea where you stand. 15:1 pot odds dont warrant a fold here with a nut str8 draw and a back door flush draw.

my 2 cents

Red

SirWatts

Seems to me you have to chase your at least 3 outs (and quite possibly more) based on pot/implied odds. This pot is going to be a monster and you should not give up right away. With the bettor showing so much strength it seems unlikely someone will raise behind you, and even with a monster they might wait until the turn to raise anyways. If the bettor does have a monster (ie the set of Q's) you will probably get a lot of extra bets out of him on the turn and river if you are lucky enough to catch and not get redrawn on. I'm also not completely convinced that an ace woulnd't be enough to win the pot since he could easily have KK or JJ or a lot of other random low limit garbage hands. Also you have a backdoor draw to the nut flush which never hurts. See one more card and if you don't improve then you can drop your hand. [Edit: I don't like raising here since the chances of getting re-raised are just too big. Maybe it's the right play to try to free up some extra outs but these fancy plays never seem to turn out well in low limit games for me since people just aren't going to fold in a big pot anyways.]

Mike

RAM_Eh

SirWatts wroteSeems to me you have to chase your at least 3 outs (and quite possibly more) based on pot/implied odds. This pot is going to be a monster and you should not give up right away. With the bettor showing so much strength it seems unlikely someone will raise behind you, and even with a monster they might wait until the turn to raise anyways. If the bettor does have a monster (ie the set of Q's) you will probably get a lot of extra bets out of him on the turn and river if you are lucky enough to catch and not get redrawn on. I'm also not completely convinced that an ace woulnd't be enough to win the pot since he could easily have KK or JJ or a lot of other random low limit garbage hands. Also you have a backdoor draw to the nut flush which never hurts. See one more card and if you don't improve then you can drop your hand. [Edit: I don't like raising here since the chances of getting re-raised are just too big. Maybe it's the right play to try to free up some extra outs but these fancy plays never seem to turn out well in low limit games for me since people just aren't going to fold in a big pot anyways.]

Mike

Sorry, SirWatts but why do you have to chase at all. The correct move is check and fold.

With a tight table image, he should have respect and others should check as well. Think about what you are saying, "chase". Players loose more money chasing the odd card. You have AK off and are looking to catch a card on 4th or the river. Is it wise, no.

Lets say you catch a king on 4th, the chances of some playing a K,Q or K, 10 are good in a loose game. BTW, the K of spades does not help you as it puts a flush on board. OK so lets say you get and A on 4th or the river, I still see you not winning. Someone with K J has the nuts.

Everyone should remember that AK suited or not is still a drawing hand. Remember that this is a small limit game and folding for most players is not an option. This is what IMO makes a winning player. Learn the easy folds.

To quote a book I read :tongue: "bet with the best, call to invest, fold all the rest" (I think)
A gut shot straigt is a fold. Think if you would still draw for more if the limit was 24/40 or 50/100 or better yet 1/2 no limit and someone put $20.00 after the flop. I would put them on 2 pair only as they want this hand over. Anything less I put them on trips as they want you to play.

My two cents.

BBC Z

I'd raise him. if he reraised me back chances are he has a decent hand. I would call his reraise and if I missed the turn I would fold. From his bankroll size hes either a poor player of he's suffered a few bad beats. A raise would give you a good idea where you stand. 15:1 pot odds dont warrant a fold here with a nut str8 draw and a back door flush draw.

my 2 cents

Red

Excellent answer. And the answer I was hoping to hear. That my friends is Tight-Agressive Poker: Tight preflop, Tight in small pots and Agressive in large pots.

Here is my reasoning for a raise after the BB bets: I've got the nut inside straight draw, backdoor nut flush draw and two overcards and the pot is a monster. My hand is too good to fold in a large pot, so lets take a page out of SSH and make a 'loose' raise. I may be able to buy one or two outs to the A/K's by facing my passive opponents with 2 bets cold. If they fold, I get to see the river for cheap with proper odds (maybe even free card). If they call, I've still got amazing pot odds to draw. If a raise comes after me (note the passive players postflop , so I highly doubt it) then I'm going to probably have odds to see the river anyway.

A gut shot straigt is a fold.

NOTHING is a fold when you have pot odds to chase the nuts in a large pot.

With a tight table image, he should have respect and others should check as well.

It's party 1/2. These guys even dont notice when a 1% VPIP / 0% PFR /over 200 hands raises..

I think this hand is a pretty good example of Miller's SSH advice.

Anyway, here is the hand as I played it..

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Ts, Qh ]
StockDork8 bets [$1].
BBC_Z calls [$1].
jodi_lynn3 folds.
jackieLeeR raises [$2].
twosnakestwo folds.
StockDork8 calls [$1].
BBC_Z calls [$1].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
StockDork8 bets [$2].
BBC_Z raises [$4].
jackieLeeR calls [$4].
StockDork8 calls [$2].
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
StockDork8 bets [$2].
BBC_Z calls [$2].
jackieLeeR folds.
StockDork8 shows [ Jh, Js ] three of a kind, jacks.
BBC_Z shows [ As, Kc ] a straight, ten to ace.
BBC_Z wins $36.5 from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.

Yes, I hit my 2 outer on the turn. But thats results oriented so it doesnt matter.

BB had JJ. Of the two folders, I wouldnt be shocked if one had AT- and a low pocket pair.

Of course, the reason I posted the hand was that I should have raised the flop while I only called it.

Soup66

If a raise is the proper call, it just furthers my issues! I know I need to be much more aggressive than I currently am, atleast in live games. Online I'm pretty aggressive, I'm not sure why my style plays when Im at the casino!

ScottyZ

Almost. :)

"bet with the best, good draw to invest, fold all the rest"

Getting ~15 to 1 from the pot is almost exactly correct in terms of pot odds for a one card 3-out* draw. An important consideration is: do you expect a raise behind you on the flop?

You (and Poker Tracker) have rated the three opponents behind you as Agg, Pas, and Pas in their post-flop play. Obviously the passive players shouldn't concern you too much (unless they end up raising). Unless the Agg player is a "wild one" whom you have noticed raising a lot of flops, I wouldn't expect a raise out of him/her, since he/she was merely a caller pre-flop.

Raising in this spot in LPLLHE seems unwarranted. It seems unlikely that you can buy any outs here (most one pair hands including an A or K will call you anyway). IMO, you both

(a) have no way to protect your hand (or buy outs) in any substantial way on the flop, and

(b) have no hand worth protecting anyway.

I would just call here.

UPDATE: I noticed that you posted since I started writing my own post (had to go get lunch) and you prefered raising over how you actually played it. While I know of Miller's advice on doing your best to protect large pots, I still think that raising may be going a little overboard with that concept, and I like the way you actually played the hand.

ScottyZ

*You have 3 clean nut outs. You may essentially have more or less outs than this depending on how you count your one pair, backdoor flush, or Js outs; and also taking into account your opponents' possible redraws against you.

BBC Z

UPDATE: I noticed that you posted since I started writing my own post (had to go get lunch) and you prefered raising over how you actually played it. While I know of Miller's advice on doing your best to protect large pots, I still think that raising may be going a little overboard with that concept, and I like the way you actually played the hand.

I think the key to the reasoning behind raising is that a lot of players don't take the current size of the pot into consideration when they see action. They're looking for the exit door as fast as possible. So the difference in immediate EV of my raise and call is marginal, loose raises can force these passive weak players into submission and thus, theres more potential +EV to the made off the raise.

One player was getting 18 to 1 to call a bet, the second was getting 9 to 1 and they folded.

*You have 3 clean nut outs. You may essentially have more or less outs than this depending on how you count your one pair, backdoor flush, or Js outs; and also taking into account your opponents' possible redraws against you.

I think it's safe to consider that a backdoor flush would be good for 1 out (subtract the .5 for the boats). The Aces and Kings I'd consider for like 1/4th their normal value, so thats another out.

The point i'd really like ot get across to everyone that reads this forum is that you can't start getting weak in large pots.. Calling and raising at their worst can cause you to lose one bet. Folding a large pot for a single bet can cost 10-20% of a large pot.

ScottyZ

The point i'd really like ot get across to everyone that reads this forum is that you can't start getting weak in large pots..

I'd definitely agree with this point in general, and, as you mentioned, this is an important theme in SSH.

Calling and raising at their worst can cause you to lose one bet. Folding a large pot for a single bet can cost 10-20% of a large pot.

Again, I'd generally agree with these ideas, and folding on the flop in this particular hand is a good example of such a costly play I think.

I think the key to the reasoning behind raising is that a lot of players don't take the current size of the pot into consideration when they see action.

Many probably don't. Taking this idea further, I find that many LPLLHE players don't even take into account the number of bets they are facing in a majority of their decisions.*

The LL weak-tighties will generally fold for just one bet (as you said, often with utter disregard to the size of the pot). The LL calling stations will generally call regardless of whether you raised or not. (I've been thinking a lot lately in terms of "Know thine enemy", and I think the vast majority of non-expert LLHE players can be put into one of these two boxes.)

A primary reason for raising (particularly on the flop) is to cause the calling stations (whom you expect to call anyway) to be making major mistakes when calling. I don't often expect calling stations with even marginal hands to be folding for one or two bets cold.

Of course, you still should raise (and re-raise) with your strong (and sometimes marginal) hands. You might sometimes get someone to fold for two bets when they would have called one. You might sometimes be called two cold by someone drawing nearly dead. You might raise a marginal hand and draw out.

Even despite the good general points that you (and SSH) are bringing up, I still think you don't have quite enough of a hand to raise with here. But raising by no means strikes me as outrageous either.

ScottyZ

*At least I find it is especially so when it is one compared to two bets. Then suddenly these same players will "go into the tank" when facing three bets (either three cold, or called one and two more back to them). Hence, the importance of 3-betting more than usual in LPLLHE, which could probably be its own thread.

ReefAquarium

BBC Z;22123 wroteExcellent answer. And the answer I was hoping to hear. That my friends is Tight-Agressive Poker: Tight preflop, Tight in small pots and Agressive in large pots.

Here is my reasoning for a raise after the BB bets: I've got the nut inside straight draw, backdoor nut flush draw and two overcards and the pot is a monster. My hand is too good to fold in a large pot, so lets take a page out of SSH and make a 'loose' raise. I may be able to buy one or two outs to the A/K's by facing my passive opponents with 2 bets cold. If they fold, I get to see the river for cheap with proper odds (maybe even free card). If they call, I've still got amazing pot odds to draw. If a raise comes after me (note the passive players postflop , so I highly doubt it) then I'm going to probably have odds to see the river anyway.

NOTHING is a fold when you have pot odds to chase the nuts in a large pot.

It's party 1/2. These guys even dont notice when a 1% VPIP / 0% PFR /over 200 hands raises..

I think this hand is a pretty good example of Miller's SSH advice.

Anyway, here is the hand as I played it..

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Ts, Qh ]
StockDork8 bets [$1].
BBC_Z calls [$1].
jodi_lynn3 folds.
jackieLeeR raises [$2].
twosnakestwo folds.
StockDork8 calls [$1].
BBC_Z calls [$1].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
StockDork8 bets [$2].
BBC_Z raises [$4].
jackieLeeR calls [$4].
StockDork8 calls [$2].
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
StockDork8 bets [$2].
BBC_Z calls [$2].
jackieLeeR folds.
StockDork8 shows [ Jh, Js ] three of a kind, jacks.
BBC_Z shows [ As, Kc ] a straight, ten to ace.
BBC_Z wins $36.5 from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.

Yes, I hit my 2 outer on the turn. But thats results oriented so it doesnt matter.

BB had JJ. Of the two folders, I wouldnt be shocked if one had AT- and a low pocket pair.

Of course, the reason I posted the hand was that I should have raised the flop while I only called it.

Yeah, I agree making the raise on the flop would make playing the turn and river easier.

When you just called on the river rather than betting....

Were you hoping jackieLeeR was going to overcall/raise on the river after a bet and a call?

Did you put your opponents on "Play any two suited"?????

BBC Z

ReefAquarium;104015 wroteYeah, I agree making the raise on the flop would make playing the turn and river easier.

When you just called on the river rather than betting....

Were you hoping jackieLeeR was going to overcall/raise on the river after a bet and a call?

Did you put your opponents on "Play any two suited"?????

I have no idea about villians since this was a LOOOONG time ago :)

On the river, I figured with the flush card, I'm either going to lose one bet (calling and running into the flush) or losing 3 bets by raising and getting 3-bet when I'm forced to call. Also his river donk made me think flush.

My original intent of this post was to highlight an example of being aggressive in a big pot. It was only with ScottyZ's responses that made me believe that calling is pretty good here too.

BBC Z

The LL weak-tighties will generally fold for just one bet (as you said, often with utter disregard to the size of the pot). The LL calling stations will generally call regardless of whether you raised or not. (I've been thinking a lot lately in terms of "Know thine enemy", and I think the vast majority of non-expert LLHE players can be put into one of these two boxes.)

This is a really great point that I missed 2 1/2 years ago :-).. People who want to fold will likely fold to one bet, and people that want to call will likely call any number of bets. Figure out who's who and profit.

I'd say this applies more to B&M than online anymore..

BigChrisEl

BBC Z;123504 wroteThis is a really great point that I missed 2 1/2 years ago :-).. People who want to fold will likely fold to one bet, and people that want to call will likely call any number of bets. Figure out who's who and profit.

I'd say this applies more to B&M than online anymore..

This is similar to what I was saying to Moose in the tread about check/raise for a free card on the turn. (Well buying a card on the turn.)

What do you think of doing that on the flop? Raising the bettor on the flop and then go from there?

AcidJoe

It's party 1/2. These guys even dont notice when a 1% VPIP / 0% PFR /over 200 hands raises..

I think this hand is a pretty good example of Miller's SSH advice.

This is 100% true and still true up to 5/10 in my opinion. I'm very aware of the dude who hasn't preflop raised in 200 hands all of a sudden raises or re raises.