windbreaker;266229 wroteYour math is close to right. I think the pot size 88k is incorrect. I think it's 83k....but regardless...it doesn't really affect the math that much. You still end up with an EV as +0.4bb's or so.
thanks for taking a look and ya the pot might be off, also i had to estimate my chips in the op but ya i think the math comes around the same
windbreaker;266229 wroteA) From what I can tell, this is the third hand you've played with your opponent, and you've made a ton of assumptions with very little basis/reasoning. (From what I can tell you assumed he was folding AJ, because he tanked called AQ; but you wouldn't know he would fold AJ.....if he hadn't tanked and call with AQ).
now that i did a little math i know the ranges he needs about, so id need to decide if theyre resonable. you are correct i didn't know that, but i feel strongly about his folding range after the fact and after talking to him, i just don't know his opening range, but when i ran hands like ajo, kqo, 99 through my head i suspected he might fold enough for me to do this
windbreaker;266229 wrote.... all 3 opponents will only call with say 1010+, AQ+....that only makes up 5% of all hands. I think this assumption is fair since, you're assigning a even tighter raise-calling range than just a straight out calling range.
yes this assumption would be fair i think, and i didn't see that until now. but i didn't know that at the time of course. and i think it would take too long to find out. but my open shove game is my strongest part (not 3 bet shoving yet though) but i felt that i needed chips immediately to realize that edge enough to make a dent in the game. also and this is kinda dumb but its something the helped make up my mind, i felt in that moment the table had me on qq+. I wish someone had seen it to comment on that. but i took that into account as part off my bluff.
windbreaker;266229 wroteI'm not 100% on the numbers as I'm playing...if the numbers are right, then I have found a spot that is almost twice as good as spot as yours. I gain +.7 bbs vs your +.4 EV spot....and I didn't even have to look at my cards.
yes you did, unfortunately i didn't quite know this.
windbreaker;266229 wroteIf the table is tough and everyone is of the same skill...you really should take every +EV spot - if there's no icm considerations.
i haven't folded a +ev spot (by my evaluation) out of icm considerarations yet..... since i knew about it. if i think its on the + side im taking it everytime but maybe i need to leave more room for erro. but i don't think there is icm here, Im to far from the ft payjumps....but thats my take on live play from the net....i had to guess at that kinda thing because its my first live game...i had no idea the table was this tight i just knew this guy doesn't snap me off, hes gonna consider the hand range equity but not that hes commited.
windbreaker;266229 wroteI think you're trying to make way too much happen....when there's better option around the corner.
Yes i do however have a problem with putting my chips in the pot.
Youre comments and evaluation is much appreciated thx.