550 live hand....

[deleted]

final 30 just in the money payouts are flat pretty much till the ft.

my reads and numbers are all we get because apparently i can't even add three number together from playing online so much

theres 2 players late and there dead blinds will be posted soon.

hero is SB with 11 bbs after posting

2 folds
mp raises 3.5x
folds to hero QhTh
hero ?

mp is tightish and has at least 40 or 50 bbs and has no concept of the fact that he needs to snap call his entire range here.

assuming he only calls with aq+, JJ+ can his opening raise be reasonably wide enough to shove?

my thoughts are if i can get a fold or double up i will start taking the dead blinds and running the table over within 10 hands....

Richard~

Just fold imo, there's a good chance you're getting called by his entire range. I wouldn't assume my opponents are this retarded while playing. Just shove the next few hands instead. KQ is a shove most likely, KJs is close but with Q high you're really counting on villain to mess up and fold hands he shouldn't

betrthanphil

stop and go!

[deleted]

Richard~;265961 wroteJust fold imo, there's a good chance you're getting called by his entire range. I wouldn't assume my opponents are this retarded while playing. Just shove the next few hands instead. KQ is a shove most likely, KJs is close but with Q high you're really counting on villain to mess up and fold hands he shouldn't

Rich I know this guy is folding anything less than aqo, i really felt that at the time and I know it even more now. i had a guy raise from small blind with about 8bbs and fold to my shove. saw another guy call a preflop raise with about 5 or six bbs and fold to a continuation bet. still its a dicey play, but if he opens wide enough then he folds enough for sure....

[deleted]

betrthanphil;265963 wrotestop and go!

i think it would induce the bb to call pre, but its a sick thought too i think.

[deleted]

Richard~;265961 wroteJust fold imo

....and ya obv im not stoked about the results of the hand but i wonder how far off i really was....

windbreaker

Fold preflop. This isn't even really a close decision, unless you have seen your opponent open often/wide enough...then it could be a stop n go or shove.

With this stack depths, it's a pretty trivial fold.

You assigned him a calling range of JJ+, AQ+....but realistically are you expecting a bad player to ever fold 99? AJo? KQo?

With your stack size and vs live opponents....it's a lot better/easier to open shove any two cards at the next available opportunity.

Richard~

darbday;265971 wroteRich I know this guy is folding anything less than aqo, i really felt that at the time and I know it even more now. i had a guy raise from small blind with about 8bbs and fold to my shove. saw another guy call a preflop raise with about 5 or six bbs and fold to a continuation bet. still its a dicey play, but if he opens wide enough then he folds enough for sure....

You're not in control of this situation. Even if he was raisefolding here a lot and that's a big if, you have no idea what kind of range he's making it 3,5x with. This is a 500 dollar tournament, don't just blindly assume you're the smartest guy at your table. Sounds to me like you just reshoved into a big hand and is trying to level yourself into thinking that you made a good shove. no offense meant

Edit: I mean if he's terrible I guess you can give yourself the illusion of a little bit of fold equity, but to rely on it doesn't feel like a good idea

betrthanphil

I think its definatly a fold here, thought you were BB my bad. Stop and go would be perfect if you were BB though.

philliivey

betrthanphil;265963 wrotestop and go!

ohhhhhh ya baby!:wink2:

DennisG

windbreaker;265986 wrote
You assigned him a calling range of JJ+, AQ+....but realistically are you expecting a bad player to ever fold 99? AJo? KQo?

While I am not agreeing with said play, I can honestly say that I guarantee these guys fold AJo and KQo. I was at another table with the same group/type of players and they were literally openfolding AQ, and folding AKs to shoves. I think they are the type of players that think they are good which in turn makes them bad...they congratulate each other (chipleader) on folding AKs to a small stack shove.."you don't need to waste 15k chips right now"..They literally call on the button with 5bb's and fold to a donk bet from bb.

When I was in the money in the 330, they were exactly the same..I expected play to loosen up, but nada. They were literally blown away that I would shove my small stack (9bbs?) with A4o from the sb... "what if he had a hand"? (this was an accidental show).

Tight folds can't describe a large portion of this crowd.

[deleted]

windbreaker;265986 wroteFold preflop. This isn't even really a close decision, unless you have seen your opponent open often/wide enough...then it could be a stop n go or shove.

With this stack depths, it's a pretty trivial fold.

You assigned him a calling range of JJ+, AQ+....but realistically are you expecting a bad player to ever fold 99? AJo? KQo?

With your stack size and vs live opponents....it's a lot better/easier to open shove any two cards at the next available opportunity.

i know for a fact he folds 99 ajo and kqo, this is why this is a question because i believe those hands are in his opening range and i don't believe he calls and wider than i suggested. he was not happy about calling with aq

and shoving atc is not something im prepared to do at this point.

[deleted]

Richard~;266007 wroteEven if he was raisefolding here a lot and that's a big if, you have no idea what kind of range he's making it 3,5x with.

thats true but i kinda feel like his range is capped because the rasie is a little large, i wasn't sure though

Richard~;266007 wrote This is a 500 dollar tournament, don't just blindly assume you're the smartest guy at your table.

i wasn't at this point, it was final 3 tables and i had only 2 hands at the table, i could be sitting with a few sharks for sure....however this is a snap call for the mp raiser, and i knew that he didn't understand that.

Richard~;266007 wroteEdit: I mean if he's terrible I guess you can give yourself the illusion of a little bit of fold equity

online this would get snapped with villains entire range, live with 9 bbs effective he still gonna consider his hand vs my range which he feels is closer to qq+ ak.

Richard~;266007 wrote but to rely on it doesn't feel like a good idea

we're talking about relying on the percentage he folds though right not wether he actually folds or not?

[deleted]

betrthanphil;266012 wroteI think its definatly a fold here, thought you were BB my bad. Stop and go would be perfect if you were BB though.

its weird though cause i knew stop and go was out but i still considered it because the bb would likey call and fold to any flop shove that he didn't hit quite well. its like we all had 35bbs

[deleted]

DennisG;266079 wroteWhile I am not agreeing with said play, I can honestly say that I guarantee these guys fold AJo and KQo. I was at another table with the same group/type of players and they were literally openfolding AQ, and folding AKs to shoves. I think they are the type of players that think they are good which in turn makes them bad...they congratulate each other (chipleader) on folding AKs to a small stack shove.."you don't need to waste 15k chips right now"..They literally call on the button with 5bb's and fold to a donk bet from bb.

When I was in the money in the 330, they were exactly the same..I expected play to loosen up, but nada. They were literally blown away that I would shove my small stack (9bbs?) with A4o from the sb... "what if he had a hand"? (this was an accidental show).

Tight folds can't describe a large portion of this crowd.

all this i didn't know but i did feel he would call very tight, i just don't know how wide his opening range needed to be.....

[deleted]

i think this is the math, please check the work if you know it cause i haven't done this for awhile and need more practice. i can honestly say i can't really widen the range but if the ev is really -400 then im down with this i think.....

villain opens..
88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KQo

4 x 9 suited
6 x 7 pairs
12 x 5 non suited non pairs

36 + 42 + 60 = 138

vilain folds TT-88,AJs-A9s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo-ATo,KQo

4 x 7 suited
6 x 4 pairs
12 x 3 non suited non pairs

28 + 24 + 36 = 88

fold % 64

call % 36

hero win when called with JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ = 29.9

.64(23000) + .36(.29(88000) - .71(88000) )

.64(23000) + .36(-36960)

14720 + -13305 = +1414

Richard~

if you think he's folding more than half the time I would've thought I'd ev would be way better than this. Two things though:

1. There's always a chance you're wrong and he will call his entire range
2. If your math is correct you're taking a neutral ev spot rather than digging into the standard very +EV late position shoves in live games. If this math is correct, you're better off shoving ATC over and over again

[deleted]

Richard~;266190 wroteif you think he's folding more than half the time I would've thought I'd ev would be way better than this. Two things though:

1. There's always a chance you're wrong and he will call his entire range
2. If your math is correct you're taking a neutral ev spot rather than digging into the standard very +EV late position shoves in live games. If this math is correct, you're better off shoving ATC over and over again

i edited the numbers cause i didn't subtract the sb i paid this hand or the big i paid the previous...

hes not calling wider but he might not be opening wider, but i think thats unrealistic though....he might not be quite as wide as im suggesting. if it happens to be deemed neutral then i want this spot right now. there are four hands with dead blinds involved coming next and i wanted more than 8.5 bbs to deal with it.

Richard~

darbday;266195 wrote hes not calling wider

This is pure guesswork on your part, and the biggest flaw in your logic

[deleted]

Richard~;266201 wroteThis is pure guesswork on your part, and the biggest flaw in your logic

maybe in the hand being a call, but the question is more if thats the case, does he open enough pre to justify it.....

not sure if the formula is correct but i think his range could be

88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KQo

the formula i attempted was:

percatage he folds time the amount of his bet plus the antes and blinds

+

perctenage he calls ((double my stack times my equity vs JJ+,AQs+,AQo) + (-double my stack times his range equity vs my qts)

i think j9s does a little better here which is funny because i said to myself i would snap shove j9s so i thought, 'man i have qts what am i thinking' and i jammed