BlondeFish;245032 wroteOn the turn, I only need 23% equity (call 360 to win 1600) to see the river, so it's an easy call for me given the range I give the villain, which includes 77, 88, 99, TT or a bluff.
On the river, I again only need 23% probability that I have the best hand to make a call +cEV (call 640 to win 2,880). While {33-66, 99, QQ-AA, 87; 65-32} have me beat, I believe in Harrington's Law of Bluffing so there is more than 22% chance that I am good against most opponents so I would make the crying call, ready to see the villain's set or nuts. However, it seems that at least 50% of the time, villain has garbage or a worse hand than mine, so I gain a lot of $EV from making calls with good odds. There are a few opponents who I have notes, HUD stats or read where I would fold on the river (or fold KK given the high probability that I put that opponent on AA).
FTW.
Folks, this is how you respond to posts. I love the solid stats you bring out blonde fish. TY.
after you c/c turn, check river, and he makes a tiny value bet given the pot, you gotta call. I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up with 5-7 or 67.
IMO people fear sets too often. Indeed it's in his range and quite possible here, its not his only hand. Also if he's going to value town you to win the minimum, I don't have trouble paying him off when I have a decent chance of winning.