AQ spot late

DennisG

Deep in a 5k guarantee, blinds 2k/4k. 16 left, money was at about 30..

Villain has been table captain, and big stack the whole time I have been here..1/2 hour or so with him.. playing about 35/20..he has a good record in MTTs

I have 3 bet him about 5 times and he has folded every time..My image is decent..22/18, shown only winners/good hands.

Holdem $4,000(BB)
f ($168,033)
villain ($250,551)
Hero ($150,049)
a ($95,340)
b ($87,500)
c($86,588)
d ($97,983)
e ($175,198)
f posts (SB) $2,000
villain posts (BB) $4,000
Dealt to Hero As Qs
Hero raises to $11,500
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
villain raises to $27,500
hero raises to $59,500
villain raises to $183,700

??

[deleted]

that first villain re raise likely puts him on ak/aq or a pocket pair which your a total dog to the range. ill sometimes call preflop to check raise an ace on flop but can be tricky if a queen comes up. as it stands now i think youre around 2 to 1 on your money and a little better than that with respect to your equity. sucks if he shows ak though....or aces or qq obviously

DennisG

I guess the real question is can I put him on any weaker aces or kings due to my aggression with him? He is definitely good enough to recognise that I have done this often to him...

[deleted]

DennisG;241711 wroteI guess the real question is can I put him on any weaker aces or kings due to my aggression with him? He is definitely good enough to recognise that I have done this often to him...

ok but 'he' 3 bet 'you' here.....that's different than him playing back to your 3 bet (4 betting)......and i know im not the authority here either but nice to open discuss.

I have this issue all the time after picking on people and they play back at me, sometimes i can't lay down because too many times they're just taking a stand with any two.

I think if you add some lower aces and weird hands your still quite behind pre when he makes that last bet, but at that point i still think you could call.

edit: actually if you can put aj in his range and or and un paired non aces then your happy to get it in....so thats your read...

Richard~

Meh, don't dump 60k 4betting light just because you don't like villain. Anyway, I think a 4bet in this spot with this hand should be a 4bet shove given your stack.

Also, you're pretty much screwed against the 5 bet ^^' From villains perspective you've made a big open for no apparent reason and 4 bet him. I can't see him getting out of line here much given the price his shove will lay you on a call.

Next time, if you're not 100% sure you want to get it in vs a 5 bet, don't 4bet. I'd flat here a bunch I think and try to get value from AJ type hands or random K9, 1010 wtv hands. Planning to 4 bet fold is bad but as played I don't know if we can justify calling, I'll leave that judgement up to someone else

DennisG

My first thoughts when he 3 bet were that I wasn't laying this down to him. I have been aggressive to him and (I think)he should be playing back at me lighter...he also has the chip advantage so he could be thinking that I will lay it down to him to get deeper in the game...

As is...I am getting 2:1 on my money..about 180k in pot, with just over 90k effective left.. With my aggression against him, I feel like he can do this with 77+, AJ+..which puts me at 55/45 dog...

Should I be much tighter with my ranges here? If I tighten him up to 77+, AK....then we are still a 3:2 dog, which justifies a call? As a solid player that he seems to be, should he be laying down the racing pairs if I have the type of hand that I do? He has chip lead, and seems to be comfortable playing at our short table..

These are spots I have trouble with, as I don't know if I give people too much credit, or not enough...

Wetts1012

I guess theres a few things here.

1) 5 betting just doesnt happen light very often. I mean only the very best are capable of 5 betting light (by light I mean like air up to 77-99, less than AJ). In this case Im always assuming a 5bet has it. Its just not a weapon most people have. Further - villain is OOP. Further-further, youve demonstrated that you usually have the goods. Dont see a reason for him to spew here.

That said Im with Richard. I flat the 3 bet and play a toppish hand in position. You can probably even peel a flop bet for less than the cost of a preflop 4bet.

2) If youre sure youre never folding to this particular villain for whatever read reason, you should be shoving ur 4bet.

3) As played, given all the info you have I think you have to fold. Your assigned range after the 5bet needs to tighten up imo, more like JJ+,AK (maybe tt). Doubt you see like AJ, KQ, 77 in this spot too often. I mean youre really deep here. You can still fold and have like 25bigs.

[deleted]

i also forgot to add that you've gotten yourself into a marginal situation vs the deepest stack on the table which is not what you want to do. this would text book marginal.....

DennisG

Ty all for the input...notes taken...attitude adjusted...lol

syphilaids

Wetts1012;241769 wrote
3) As played, given all the info you have I think you have to fold. Your assigned range after the 5bet needs to tighten up imo, more like JJ+,AK (maybe tt). Doubt you see like AJ, KQ, 77 in this spot too often. I mean youre really deep here. You can still fold and have like 25bigs.

Really?

I don't get how we can dump over a third of our stack here then fold, really...

Although I do agree with the flatting the 3bet pre, I don't see how after we 4bet here we can fold.

We are getting >2:1 odds on our all-in. Even if we put him on exactly AK, QQ, or KK, We MAY have slightly worse or even money odds to call (we win ~30%)

The only thing we hate to see here is AA.

Realistically, we can put villian on TT+ (maybe 99 depending on aggression), MAYBE AJs+ but def AQ+

I just don't see the fold equity we have here. Does it have to do with the fact we are in the money, and the longer we can stay alive the more money we get? Is it more profitable to fold our way to the top then to ship and pray?