darbday;234251 wroteyes and over the last week or so i think ive honed this, to much good poker not enough bet when ahead, fold if re raised, funny i can bank 3k in a my first year and get get any roi for the life of my now that i know 10 times more. but really i doubt this guy has an ace, i am likely slightly ahead pre-flop, and have position......soooo.....
No. You can't just try and soul read the guy and be like 'meh, nah I don't think he has an ace', we have absolutely nooo way of telling if he has an ace, or has no ace, or a big one, or a small one, all we can do is put him on a range. Maybe he has every ace in his range. Maybe he only has a few. Always try to think of the villain's ENTIRE range, not part of it. Don't think 'I put him on a bunch of stuff but probably not an ace'. If you think he's loose and plays a ton of hands, think of it like this: 'I put him on a wide range including a bunch of suited connectors, all pairs, all aces, and all broadways since people at this level value these hands regardless of position'. Ok that's fair, so then we plug it into pokerstove:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.678% 47.75% 03.92% 1046654608 85991998.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 48.322% 44.40% 03.92% 973110516 85991998.00 { A7s }
I took out A4o-A2o and left all suited aces, just assuming that he doesn't raise EVERY ace from this position just to be safe (maybe he does, but it's better to assume they're slightly tighter than slightly looser). As you see, we have 48% chance of winning hot and cold (all in pre-flop), so we're slightly behind his range. "But we have position!!!" Yes, we do, but we don't have something that's much more important when stacks are shallow and we are often not going to be playing 3-streets of poker where we have position each street... initiative. What do we do when we wiff flops and have A7 and he bets into us? Float every c-bet? Float some? Bluff raise some (which will cost us most of our stack 30BB deep)? I don't know, it's tough. Our stack limits us a bunch in this spot, so it's best just to let it go and wait for a spot where we're safely ahead of our range, and we'll be able to nearly print money just playing fit or fold, since we'll be making so much money by having a better pair or better kicker than our opponent on average.
Fwiw, our hand vs. a tighter range that's still fairly loose from UTG+1:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.842% 58.34% 01.50% 647319864 16666092.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.158% 38.66% 01.50% 428920944 16666092.00 { A7s }
And our hand vs. a solid TAG's range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.840% 65.62% 01.22% 368529672 6865548.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 33.160% 31.94% 01.22% 179374944 6865548.00 { A7s }
So we're pretty much behind in every situation unless it's an extremely optimistic one.