Turn play with SC's

STR82ACE

Not running any software so no HUD data, but villain has been loose aggressive so far, playing a lot of pots. After reviewing I realizing I'm more thin than I thought equity wise going in preflop.

Can't find a decent hand converter for Cake. Is there one?

Hand#2135014138000670 - Rome 14138 -- $0.02/$0.04 NL Hold'em -- 2010/02/08 - 15:18:06
Seat 1: Poke***1 ($3.74 in chips)
Seat 2: Vale***2 ($2.88 in chips)
Seat 3: King***3 ($1.44 in chips)
Seat 4: *JoK***4 ($4.05 in chips)
Seat 5: amlo***5 ($3.94 in chips)
Seat 7: ChingHill ($5.32 in chips)
Seat 8: farm***8 ($5.24 in chips)
Seat 9: panc***9 ($3.90 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: Jan2***10 ($1.36 in chips)
Jan2***10: posts small blind $0.02
Vale***2: posts big blind $0.04
Dealt to ChingHill [5c,6c]
King***3: calls $0.04
*JoK***4: folds
amlo***5: folds
ChingHill: calls $0.04
farm***8: folds
panc***9: calls $0.04
Jan2***10: folds
Vale***2: raises to $0.11
King***3: calls $0.07
ChingHill: calls $0.07
panc***9: calls $0.07
*** FLOP *** [7d,Jc,Qc]
Vale***2: bets $0.12
King***3: folds
ChingHill: raises to $0.41
panc***9: folds
Vale***2: raises to $0.70
ChingHill: calls $0.29
*** TURN *** [3s]
Vale***2: bets $0.93
ChingHill: ???

His half pot bet here has me thinking that I still have decent equity to see a cheap river card, but am I wrong? I'm putting him on a fairly tight range of JJ+, AJ+ after his flop re raise.

JohnnieH

Call. I think your flop raise disguised your hand really well (at this level NOBODY raises their draw) He'll shove the river no matter what the card is.

If you missed, well it's just 2c/4c. Reload :)

Wetts1012

STR82ACE;217375 wrote

His half pot bet here has me thinking that I still have decent equity to see a cheap river card, but am I wrong? I'm putting him on a fairly tight range of JJ+, AJ+ after his flop re raise.

I'll stove this when I get home but Im pretty sure based on your assigned ranges this is a close fold. I'll verify later but I think its really tight on either side of the fence.

To confirm, You think his range is AJ, AQ, JJ+?

STR82ACE

Wetts1012;217382 wrote To confirm, You think his range is AJ, AQ, JJ+?

After his flop bet and re raise, yes, I'm content to put him in that range. Can't imagine anything less calling my flop raise here, but at this level, stranger things have been known to happen.

Just curious to know if calling and seeing the river card is the best course of action here.

Ally

he's never folding, your hand is junk and you'll never get paid if you hit, plus you're not getting the odds to call... turn is a fold IMO.

plus the flop raise is weird too he's giving you fantastic odds with position in a heads up pot, i think that one is a pretty clear call. those look like value bets from a fish, if he doesn't have a hand you can still take it away with turn+river bets if he checks.

STR82ACE

I've run this through my equity calculator and it comes up with an easy call on the flop at about 40%, but drops to 29% on the turn, if I include 77 in his range

Board: 7djcqc
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 39.223 % 39.223 % 0.000 % 60.777 % 6c5c
Player 2: 60.777 % 60.777 % 0.000 % 39.223 % JJ+, 77, AJs+, AJo+

----------------------------------------

Board: 7djcqc 3s
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 29.173 % 29.173 % 0.000 % 70.827 % 6c5c
Player 2: 70.827 % 70.827 % 0.000 % 29.173 % JJ+, 77, AJs+, AJo+

Is 30% still too light to call the turn here?

Milo

The fact that I would call the turn bet should tell you all you need to know, AJ . . .

So, how did it go?
Did you fold it?
Or, was the river a brick?

JohnnieH

Milo;217410 wroteThe fact that I would call the turn bet should tell you all you need to know, AJ . . .

So, how did it go?
Did you fold it?
Or, was the river a brick?

+1. Could we get the thrilling conclusion please?

STR82ACE

Well, the more I think about it the more I think calling was not the right answer, but at the moment, I did call, thinking I still had well over 30%. River card came down 4 to make my straight and villain pushed his stack. I insta called and he showed a set of Queens. Needless to say he was not impressed. Can't blame him I guess, but I definitely wasn't folding the flop, just got lucky on the river.

I'm thinking I should have maybe pushed his re raise on the flop. Not that he was going to fold his hand, but because my equity was so good. On the turn, I honestly thought I was better and perhaps the math dictated a fold. Need to examine more of my turn play I believe.

SuitedPair

The cheap flop bet and then reraise suggests he hit the flop rather than driving a draw. Any club (except 7/3) or 4 and you are golden. Of course I'm saying this knowing you got the 4.....

So my guess is you hit the river for a C or a 4 and you win and can probably take his stack as he hit the flop hard enough to bet through the turn. Otherwise you lose and walk away from your .93. (was going to write Loose to piss off Moose but that would be bad karma :-)

so just less than 25% chance to grab 2.70 + the dollar 30 or so he has back (just rough calc and there is rake in there) with a cost of .93

pretty close to even EV. Tough one.