ev?

[deleted]

$100 dollar sit n go. your in the big blind. everyone else is all in, the enitre 9 other people at the table. you look down at poket aces.....you are in your underwear whats your move?

MarcoGD

darbday;202318 wrote$100 dollar sit n go. your in the big blind. everyone else is all in, the enitre 9 other people at the table. you look down at poket aces.....you are in your underwear whats your move?

Stack sizes? Blinds?

Probably a fold though.

STR82ACE

Call
Hit the SIT OUT NEXT HAND icon
go back to watching PORN while the hand plays out
check back in 15min and call up Hand History

Post here for analysis

Kristy

Jah has a gimmick account?

[deleted]

Sorry missing info: this is the 1st hand

800OVER

darbday;202318 wrote$100 dollar sit n go. your in the big blind. everyone else is all in, the enitre 9 other people at the table. you look down at poket aces.....you are in your underwear whats your move?

I'm pretty sure aces would be like 25% at best to win the hand...(probably even worse).

Just fold and collect your $300 and play heads up for the win.

Wetts1012

800OVER;202436 wroteI'm pretty sure aces would be like 25% at best to win the hand...(probably even worse).

Just fold and collect your $300 and play heads up for the win.

I hope your leveling here. But think about the math you just provided ( I have no idea if its right)

75% of the time your gonna lose $100 (-7500)
25% of the time your gonna win $700 (+17500)

DennisG

I ran it in pokerstove just for the hell of it...AA vs top 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and the rest randoms...

About 26% bouncing up and down a few points on Monte Carlo..At nine other randoms, it is over 30%.

so yeah...9 player table, actually gonna win 450 (at a 50-30-20 split and not sure the breakdown on 10 player?) 25% +11250 Still EV+

So..no, I still can't fold pocket aces preflop.

-edit...I also scratch my nuts...just because I am in my underwear and they are readily available.

2nd edit...hmm...need to factor in that you are guaranteed second place money every time if you fold...well, ok , not every time..because there will likely be a lot of split pots in there..but probably 75% of the time you will be guaranteed second. Being a huge dog going into heads up you will likely win 1 in 8? times...maybe 1 in 4...that is more ev+ without doing the math..

Hmm..maybe it is too late and I shouldn't be thinking about this right now...

[deleted]

Wetts1012;203096 wroteI hope your leveling here. But think about the math you just provided ( I have no idea if its right)

75% of the time your gonna lose $100 (-7500)
25% of the time your gonna win $700 (+17500)

thx i knew there was more too it

is this a winner take all thing? how is the money distributed?

if its winner take all i have the Aces at $2.1 (ev?) >>> .297 x 7 (if its winner take all)

but folding to 2nd is 2.40ev + any time you can take first

there can also be ties but it still seems folding is the better play?

Wetts1012

darbday;203098 wrotethx i knew there was more too it

is this a winner take all thing? how is the money distributed?

if its winner take all i have the Aces at $2.1 (ev?) >>> .297 x 7 (if its winner take all)

but folding to 2nd is 2.40ev + any time you can take first

there can also be ties but it still seems folding is the better play?

If its a winner take all calling is by far the best play.

So first is $900, and your aces will win 25% 0f the time:

So 75% of times you lose $100 - (-$7500)
And 25% of times you win $800 - (+$20000)

Assuming you fold your gonna win maybe 5% of the time?

The question obout the "most" EV decision depends entirely on the payout structure. The more topheavy, the more calling is the best decision. As the payouts get flatter folding equity rises.

DennisG

Wetts1012;203109 wroteIf its a winner take all calling is by far the best play.

So first is $900, and your aces will win 25% 0f the time:

So 75% of times you lose $100 - (-$7500)
And 25% of times you win $800 - (+$20000)

Assuming you fold your gonna win maybe 5% of the time?

The question obout the "most" EV decision depends entirely on the payout structure. The more topheavy, the more calling is the best decision. As the payouts get flatter folding equity rises.

Typical sng payout is 50% to first and 30% to second...20% to third.

So, if folding guarantees you 2nd, 270 or +170 ev (17000) every time...with a few wins thrown in the mix...it is about the same as folding...with less variance.

BBC Z

Jah has a gimmick account?

I thought Jah WAS the gimmick account

Milo

Wetts1012;203096 wroteI hope your leveling here. But think about the math you just provided ( I have no idea if its right)

75% of the time your gonna lose $100 (-7500)
25% of the time your gonna win $700 (+17500)

Waitaminnit, I thought it was 50/50? So, wouldn't the math be

50% of the time you're gonna lose $100.00 (-1250.00)
50% of the time you're gonna win $800.00 (+1250.00)

Please clarify, Darryl.

Wetts1012

In after Milo math clarifies each play is breakeven.

[deleted]

K everyones doing different numbers id like to assume a 50 30 20 payout....but who gets third for one thing? And i have aces as a 30% favorite in the first hand.

so Calling is 30% of 1st place?
and folding is 100% of 2nd no?

if payouts are 2 3 and 5 bux

.3 x 5 is 1.5 for calling and 3 for folding?

why am i wrong here?

BlondeFish

My "feel" was that calling with AA is automatic. However, after doing the math schmath, I am again reminded of how counter-intuitive poker is. Assuming a $1 (+ rake) 10-player SNG, if all ten players call, then the winner would get $5 for first place. What everybody has forgotten is that the nine losers would all be out at the same time so would have to split the remaining $5 in the prize pool, or 55.5¢ each.

$EV of calling = ~30% * $5 + 70% * ($5 / 9) = $1.50 + $0.39 = +$1.89.

$EV of folding AA = ~100% * $3 for 2nd place = +$3.
Even in the situation where there are two winners splitting the huge pot, you would still win at least third place, so your folding $EV of at least $2 is still higher than calling.

Therefore, in the extreme case of everybody going all-in in a SNG (that is non winner-take-all), if I was the last person to act, I would fold AA! :eek: This would be similar to everybody going all-in in the WSOP Main Event final table and if I was a short stack like James Akenhead in the BB, I would fold AA to be assured of a higher prize.

OK, now that I've exercised my poker brain, it's time to drive out to Fallsview....

darbday;203131 wroteK everyones doing different numbers id like to assume a 50 30 20 payout....but who gets third for one thing? And i have aces as a 30% favorite in the first hand.

so Calling is 30% of 1st place?
and folding is 100% of 2nd no?

if payouts are 2 3 and 5 bux

.3 x 5 is 1.5 for calling and 3 for folding?

Milo

Wetts1012;203128 wroteIn after Milo math clarifies each play is breakeven.

Well, was there not a thread where you basically proved that AA all-in preflop was a 50/50 proposition?

Or am I misremembering?

800OVER

BlondeFish;203140 wroteMy "feel" was that calling with AA is automatic. However, after doing the math schmath, I am again reminded of how counter-intuitive poker is. Assuming a $1 (+ rake) 10-player SNG, if all ten players call, then the winner would get $5 for first place. What everybody has forgotten is that the nine losers would all be out at the same so would have to split the remaining $5 in the prize pool, or 55.5¢ each.

$EV of calling = ~30% * $5 + 70% * ($5 / 9) = $1.50 + $0.39 = +$1.89.

$EV of folding AA = ~100% * $3 for 2nd place = +$3.
Even in the situation where there are two winners splitting the huge pot, you would still win at least third place, so your folding $EV of at least $2 is still higher than calling.

Therefore, in the extreme case of everybody going all-in in a SNG (that is non winner-take-all), if I was the last person to act, I would fold AA! :eek: This would be similar to everybody going all-in in the WSOP Main Event final table and if I was a short stack like James Akenhead in the BB, I would fold AA to be assured of a higher prize.

OK, now that I've exercised my poker brain, it's time to drive out to Fallsview....

Now that someone with poker credibility has agreed with me.......All y'all bitches better recognize!!!

800OVER

Wetts1012;203096 wrote But think about the math you just provided ( I have no idea if its right)

)

and.....

Wetts1012

800OVER;203153 wroteand.....

This was my bad.

I thought the question was Is calling +EV, which simple math shows it is. Not what is the most EV play, which your probably right, in a standard payout structure SNG.