Should I fold AA preflop?

ReefAquarium

BlondeFish;193506 wroteSituation: You are on the bubble of a 15-seat satellite to a Sunday Major. There is one shorter stack on your table, and two with almost the same stack as you in the other 8-player table.

NL Texas Hold'em $11 USD Buy-in
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100) - Friday
Table $300K Gtd Sunday Qualifier Rebuy 15 Seats Gtd Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 7: VGrandioos ( 46,918 )
Seat 2: BLONDEFISH ( 18,808 )
Seat 5: VRugDoctor886 ( 8,256 )
Seat 4: VWinniPuuh ( 32,440 )
Seat 6: VjEpz_ ( 67,135 )
Seat 9: Vjoezeta ( 104,391 )
Seat 1: Vkralle574 ( 26,702 )
Seat 8: Vqiangsun ( 20,928 )
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BLONDEFISH [ Ac As ]
Vjoezeta raises [8,000]
Vkralle574 folds
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.

What should you do?

Most of the ICM calculators that I can find online only have calculations for at most ten prizes.

When I ran the numbers for 9/10 places playing I get that you will move up in equity from 9.7% to 10.7% if you double up. So the odds you're getting is 9.7 to 1.

Since AA isn't more than an 8 to 1 vs crap hands like 27o you would fold , even if shown 72o..

If you extrapolate these results to the 15/16 place payout does it make it worse or better to fold?

Does anyone know of an ICM calculator that pay more than 10 places???

88Fingers

pokerJAH;193677 wroteyes, it would make a difference; its $11. If you lose, skip lunch and try again.

I dont like skipping meals :)

$xxxxxxx reg MTT with me on the bubble I push AA every day and thrice on Sundays. This one I fold.

LanterneRouge

pokerJAH;193611 wrotethis question is so 2007; your honestly going to fold aces in a $11 satellite??

You find it strange that someone would want to continue with their "A game" right to the end instead of throwing away a $215 prize on the bubble with (what they consider may have been) a "B game" move? I find that strange. After a couple hours of play and with only a hand or three to go, I'd want to make the most strategically-correct play every single time - even if the prize was $2.15.

So BlondeFish, what happened? Did you fold and get into short stack troubles or shove and get cracked by ... mmm, I'll guess 66 or K9o?

Milo

LanterneRouge;193746 wroteYou find it strange that someone would want to continue with their "A game" right to the end instead of throwing away a $215 prize on the bubble with (what they consider may have been) a "B game" move? I find that strange. After a couple hours of play and with only a hand or three to go, I'd want to make the most strategically-correct play every single time - even if the prize was $2.15.

So BlondeFish, what happened? Did you fold and get into short stack troubles or shove and get cracked by ... mmm, I'll guess 66 or K9o?

Somebody needs to use the search function for "folding Aces pre-flop" before getting snooty. It was a gag post, Redlight . . .

westside8

Just by reading OP, I fold here if I re-arranged all the seats on your table properly. Non-satellite bubble, chips are getting in the middle LDO.

STR82ACE

Satellite bubble or no, I don't think folding here is the right move imho. Again, if your goal is to JUST break the bubble, you need more chips now JUST to have a comfortable fold equity later, and you won't get better than AA now.

I know folding here is also considered appropriate considering its a satellite bubble, but I just don't think it should be done with AA.

But then again, I'm a donk, what do I know

JimmyHo

LanterneRouge;193746 wroteYou find it strange that someone would want to continue with their "A game" right to the end instead of throwing away a $215 prize on the bubble with (what they consider may have been) a "B game" move?

no, I find it strange that someone who just played in a $10k US tournament would actually consider folding aces pre-flop in a $11US satellite.

LanterneRouge

Milo;193751 wroteSomebody needs to use the search function for "folding Aces pre-flop" before getting snooty. It was a gag post, Redlight . . .

There is nothing in either of JAH's posts in this thread that clearly indicated any sarcasm or joking to me (such as a :p, :wink: or writing style). If they have some kind of running gag going or a history of goofing on each other and this was just one more, then pardon me. I didn't know.

Either way, I don't see anything snooty about my response and, despite your overboard recommendation, I will not be doing a search of every past post before posting myself unless I see very specific reason to do so.

westside8

pokerJAH;193774 wroteno, I find it strange that someone who just played in a $10k US tournament would actually consider folding aces pre-flop in a $11US satellite.

Try analyzing the situation for what it is, a decision in a tournament, and ignore what the monitary value it could lead to.

Does it mean if you were in the same situation at a $1K satellite bubble to a $10K WSOP ME seat, you will come to a different decision with how to play this hand compared to this where you are in a $11 satellite into a $215 tournament?

JimmyHo

westside8;193781 wroteDoes it mean if you were in the same situation at a $1K satellite bubble to a $10K WSOP ME seat, you will come to a different decision with how to play this hand compared to this where you are in a $11 satellite into a $215 tournament?

yes, my time is worth money. For a $215 prize, I would never fold AA pre-flop. If I happen to lose the hand, so be it. Would I push with 23off in a $0.50 tournament.... I will let you answer that one.

88Fingers

pokerJAH;193786 wroteyes, my time is worth money. For a $215 prize, I would never fold AA pre-flop. If I happen to lose the hand, so be it. Would I push with 23off in a $0.50 tournament.... I will let you answer that one.

I do undersand your point; $0.50, $11.00 - meh, whatever. But if I enetered a sat. for whatever buy-in I would think I entered it to win a seat. If that is true, then I still am looking to win a seat.

The buy-in should not make a difference in this discussion. It is about MTT Strategy and "satellite near bubble optimal play" with all the conditions set for in the OP.

I'm wondering if some peoples opinions would differ if no monetary info was given by BlondeFish. I'm also wondering if this was the intended point of the post. :)

BlondeFish

pokerJAH;193786 wrote For a $215 prize, I would never fold AA pre-flop.... Would I push with 23off in a $0.50 tournament....

It is a no-brainer for me to try to make the correct poker decision, whether it is a 50¢ game, a $11 unlimited rebuy, or the WSOP Main Event. In this case, if folding had a higher $EV than re-raising all-in with AA, then I would gladly fold AA. Unfortunately, I don't know of an ICM calculator that can handle 15 paid spots and more than one table to check the $EV (as smartly mentioned by ReefAquarium).

I am getting ~85% equity with AA against villain's range. If my chances of outlasting the three shorter stacks are greater than 85%, then I would fold AA. As mentioned by 88Fingers, another factor is the possibility of getting more than one caller (e.g., there are two players with 2.5-3.5x times my chips who can afford to call if they think they have a good enough hand), so my equity would drop down below what is required to make it +$EV compared to folding. In hindsight, I should have folded the best hand in poker.

However, with my remaining time bank beeping, I had to go with my "gut feeling" :redface: at the time. I went all-in, villain called with

:kh :8h
I have 83% equity. I was screaming "Hold! Hold! Hold!" like in Braveheart. Flop is safe with

:10d :qh :5d
I now have 92% equity. I will double up to over 44,000 chips and be safe with the satellite prize - unless he gets runner-runner.

:9d
:jh
for the runner-runner straight. :rage:
Did I say that online poker is not rigged?!

JimmyHo

88Fingers;193804 wroteThe buy-in should not make a difference in this discussion. It is about MTT Strategy and "satellite near bubble optimal play" with all the conditions set for in the OP.

granted the buy-in should not make a difference, but the advice should be tailored to the person asking the question.

Good call Buddy, unfortunate outcome. btw, if online poker was rigged, the 9 & 10 would have been hearts and you would have had :ah.

jontm

I like these types of threads and questions, see so many perceptions and pieces of the puzzle.

Loved the answer, shows the whole picture.

[deleted]

if you fold and the short stack doubles up you gave up the best chance you can hope for as far as hitting a seat

BlondeFish

If you fold and EVEN IF ONE short stack doubles up, there are still a couple of other shorter stacks, so I believe I maximize my profit in the long run by folding AA.

darbday;196287 wroteif you fold and the short stack doubles up you gave up the best chance you can hope for as far as hitting a seat

[deleted]

BlondeFish;196300 wroteIf you fold and EVEN IF ONE short stack doubles up, there are still a couple of other shorter stacks, so I believe I maximize my profit in the long run by folding AA.

But for the guy who raise you isn't he pretty much guarenteed a spot if he folds every hand? So if you re raised him all in shouldn't he have to lay down anything less than Aces? And if he does call isn't he a huge underdog. I don't know if thats right but if it is I would shove.

actyper

I think I folded AA pre more times the past week during those WCOOP extreme sats than I have in the past combined.

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