Understanding overbets

DennisG

Running a couple tables, so not fully paying attention..but villian is running at 43/7/13 (about 35 hands). Haven't seen anything silly from him though..

Full Tilt Poker Game #13238099486: $20 + $2 Sit & Go (98110160), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:05:57 ET - 2009/07/06
Seat 1: downhillski (1,735)
Seat 3: Bcboy72 (3,025)
Seat 4: Jimelo (755)
Seat 5: seal point crew (3,485)
downhillski posts the small blind of 25
Bcboy72 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bcboy72 [Ah Kc]
Jimelo folds
seal point crew calls 50
downhillski calls 25
Bcboy72 raises to 200
seal point crew calls 150
downhillski folds
*** FLOP *** [9h Tc Jc]
Bcboy72 checks
seal point crew has 15 seconds left to act
seal point crew bets 600
Bcboy72 has 15 seconds left to act
Bcboy72 folds
Uncalled bet of 600 returned to seal point crew
seal point crew mucks
seal point crew wins the pot (450)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 450 | Rake 0
Board: [9h Tc Jc]

I am really trying to figure out overbets...and the "why's". Is he running a big ace that missed also? or...

blackmagicz

Possibly flopped a monster thought you had a big pair and figured you may call a shove because you think he is bluffing.....see it all the time...I do it sometimes as well.

DennisG

I kinda thought set maybe too...limp-call to set mine...a play I will also use if odds stay in favor..but 43% on 35 hands really he could have anything no? 4 players left, big stack...time to turn on the heat?

T8urmoney

blackmagicz;192472 wrotePossibly flopped a monster thought you had a big pair and figured you may call a shove because you think he is bluffing.....see it all the time...I do it sometimes as well.

+1.......I find they either have air or a monster. Long term, not too profitable to call, unless of course you have the monster.

jontm

IMO, he hates the board (both str8 and flush draws) and wants his hand to hold up. We had a huge discussion on this and found it so common for some players to have the idea "mmmmust protect my hand" ingrained in their head and have the leak of overbetting to try to push off possible draws, even if the player doesn't likely have it.

I was very guilty of this, especially with a big pair I didn't want cracked. There is post after post of players claiming that overbetting was the solution to lags....then the same poster would have 10 bad beat stories, usually with one pair against a 14+ flopped outs for the villain.

Wasn't 10 BB enough, 20?

Then a player came along and brilliantly explained that not only are they robbing themselves of potential earnings by overbetting, if the player has the draw they fear there is almost no way to price them out. They are not loose, just getting brilliant odds to chase, if not pot odds but easy implied odds since a check will more than likely see the hero pot commit himself by the river.

Looking at that board, I would say your overbetter is a victim of this huge leak.

So a "scared" player flops the set, two pair or even just hits top pair and figures you missed....rather than give you a bit of rope he either thinks your committed to the hand enough to call and is giving you no credit as a player OR more likely he overbets because he is in the stage of his game where he is afraid of getting run over, (or even just having a bad night of getting drawn out on, tilting) and the chance of you having the right cards is screwing his own head.

I like the thought Ihaveyourname put forward that he may just be applying pressure if you have a tight image, or that he figures you have blanked, but I figure if he is thinking that he is good enough not to overbet pot here.

Even at the $20 SNG level there are gonna be those that just don't take the time to see anything more than what they hold. I know tons of players that are scared to play live, are very new that play $20 games online, sometimes we let the stakes make us believe they actually know what the hell they are doing.

jontm

PS, we also determined it is great to find the paraniod overbetter, especially online where they like to complain about draw chasers, giving you all the info you need to set up the check raise and value bet bluffs when the "bluff out" hits and he plays passively.

Even if he is was semi bluffing with his overbet, hit the draw, the value bet is easy to fold when he will undoubtly overbet with his raise giving all the info we need.

And if he is that good to set this all up as a bluff himself, well, nice hand sir!