Hand that busted me in last CPT, Thoughts?

jontm

So, with 40 players to go, 19 spots till the money with a 209 player starting field I push all in against 2 tight blinds, one with about 13k and one with about 11k. 7 hours elapsed.

I have 7k and the blinds are 800/1600 with a 50 ante. I am a little diasapionted in my "M", too low but I have been picking up enough blinds to maintain this stack at the same level for 3 blind levels, since 400/800. The deck has been hitting some players and the spots few. I missed a big draw and bled off 3k before I went into short stack mode. My only move since the dip has been shove. One hand seen 3 decent stacks all in, they held qq, kk, aa preflop. AA held.

I am in seat ten, my toughest opponent was in seat 1, making late position moves was not an option. He called off 60k in chips till he went broke and did swing up and down with atc and a few legit hands.

My hand for the all in 78 suited. BB has AK. What are we pre-flop?

I flop the 8 on a 10 8 rag board. What is the percentage now? I don't have a hand calculator anymore.

He turns the King but it is a heart, giving me the 4 flush and 14 outs, so 70/30 for him roughly I think.

Bad Move? I was actually happy with the way I went out, being the aggressor and in not so bad shape. I missed one draw all tourney, only limp folded a few times and layed down some huge hands pre, trusting my read and was crushed every time. Could I have done more? when I had an even stack with the LAG and a chiplead at my table but no remotely decent starting hands, should I have gambled more in early position? Call raises with J4, q7 etc?

What do you think?

trigs

Texas Hold'em Odds Calculator - CardPlayer.com

BiiLLY

PF:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.211% 41.00% 00.21% 33699852 171786.00 { 87s }
Hand 1: 58.789% 58.58% 00.21% 48147168 171786.00 { AKo }

post flop:

Board: Td 8c 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.172% 77.17% 00.00% 27504 0.00 { 87s }
Hand 1: 22.828% 22.83% 00.00% 8136 0.00 { AKo }

Shortstacked this play is inevitable. You are in push/fold mode here. You cant afford to do anything else.

GTA Poker

I'd be examining more how your M got to less than 3, that is a standard play once you are there.

jontm

Totattly agree, I let my stack get way to low. I am still learning to open up more in these and won't be playing another until I get more comfortable with stealing at a higher frequency and floating flops more.

Outside my bankroll and my experience, although I did alot better in this one than the previous. I will say I was pushing hard to try for a double up and recover my blinds and ante's each roatation towards the end of my ride. My hand holds here I have a good shot of getting back in it.

Tightened up way to much in the middle of the pack and had a player on my immediate left that owned me and most of the rest of the table. (Herb Van Dyke)

westside8

jontm;191876 wroteTotattly agree, I let my stack get way to low. I am still learning to open up more in these and won't be playing another until I get more comfortable with stealing at a higher frequency and floating flops more.

This is something that you wouldn't necessarily need in your arsenal. Stealing, re-stealing should be a higher priority that you should grasp.

As far as the hand goes, pretty standard to shove there given the situation. Just tough that you ran into a hand and he got there after you hit the flop

Henjon

An interesting angle on this I recently read in Moshman's book about SnG (but it applies here too I think):

When you're down to around 4bb you're not necessarily looking for a spot to push and have everyone fold. Even if such an event keeps you alive a little longer, it's only temporarily, because winning the blinds does not frankly do much to your stack. What you really would need is a double up. And if some dead money is in the pot too - the better!

This means that you should be more inclined to call other players pushes if you have a decent hand yourself (and if you have no reason to believe that this player only pushes in this spot with absolute monsters like QQ+). So say we have like T9s on CO and a medium stack pushes allin from MP. To call here might in fact be a good idea. Because most likely we are only underdogs with a 42% chance to win (against two overcards) or we're flipping against a lower pair.

Another good thing: If we win and double up some people might start to hesitate to push against us in the blinds since we just delivered a "loose" image to the table.

One objection might be that this is more true in SnG:s because we're on a shorthanded table there with fewer chances to catch a really good hand before the blinds hit us again, while in an MTT we're normally on a full table with 9 or 10 players.

Hobbes

jontm;191832 wrote I am in seat ten, my toughest opponent was in seat 1, making late position moves was not an option. He called off 60k in chips till he went broke and did swing up and down with atc and a few legit hands.

Why not make a move when short against this guy if he stacks off light?

jontm;191832 wrote My hand for the all in 78 suited. BB has AK. What are we pre-flop?

Umm you should have this in your head or should not be playing. This is pretty basic.

jontm;191832 wrote I flop the 8 on a 10 8 rag board. What is the percentage now? I don't have a hand calculator anymore.

He turns the King but it is a heart, giving me the 4 flush and 14 outs, so 70/30 for him roughly I think.

Who cares how the odds change? The money went in @ 60/40 and since there is no more betting the odds are inconsequential.

jontm

Hobbes, pre-flop precentages I am not strong on, thats why I ask the better players.

I think alot of players in the low limits leave this as one of the last things to learn.

What is in my head is this. My stack is a threat to the blinds that don't have alot to lose themselves, 7k will cripple either of them. They are both pretty tight and will need a broadway hand (usually Kq or better) to call me. I shouldn't get called by a hand that has me dominated unless they wake up with a decent PP. Even then I am not sure they race without tens or better, based on how they played.

I should be live at worst and a suited connector at this "m" is in the range of what I believe (but could be wrong) Mr Harrington says I should be playing agressively.

I can't raise obviously. I agree the the post flop precentages don't matter. I came from a forum where the players were far less experienced than the ones here. I am still adjusting to that in my posts.

I am confused about the comment on making a move against the guy who stacks off light? Just race him with a hand and hope for the best? He will call ATC, so how do I estimate my preflop % as you suggest I should know? Big dog hand vs anything.

Arn't I doing the same thing with my shove with an acceptable but far from premium hand against stacks and player types who give me an idea they may fold or I won't be too far behind?

The if you don't know you shouldn't be playing was a little harsh, preflop estimates are a guess at best when shoving out of position aren't they?

I asked now because some one with the math skillz can help see them in a few ways.