3.30r - Flat or Ship in this spot?

jdAA88

Villain recently moved to table so no reads...150 players left, I have about 20 bbs...

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t4000/t8000 Blinds + t1000 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t263832 M = 13.19
SB: t73141 M = 3.66
Hero (BB): t184055 M = 9.20
UTG: t93952 M = 4.70
UTG+1: t325564 M = 16.28
MP1: t163888 M = 8.19
MP2: t238992 M = 11.95
CO: t242650 M = 12.13

Pre Flop: (t20000) Hero is BB with T:s: T:d:
3 folds, MP2 raises to t24000, 3 folds, Hero ?

actyper

ship it. Hardly ever a good reason to flat in the bb with that stack late in a tourney.

blackmagicz

Ship it and pray you are against 6 outs instead of drawing for 2...

LanterneRouge

I'd probably fold if the tourney was within 1,2,3 players of the bubble. Otherwise, it's a pretty easy shove and hope. I think there's a good enough chance that you are marginally or massively ahead with 10s in that spot if you get called.

There's no way I'm flat calling out of position against a player who has (slightly) more chips than me and who I don't have a read on when one or two overcards are likely to come on the flop.

Henjon

We can also assume that since he has quite a decent stack at this time of the tournament he's probably not an ultratight player (hard to accumulate such big stacks then). So if he's on the loose side we can be pretty sure that his opening range from this position is if not ocean wide so at least not very narrow. We will definately be ahead most of it. So what happens if we shove and he has something like 77 or AJ? He has us covered but a loss in an all-in would really hurt his stack. I say we have lots of fold equity here if he is loose but not extremely loose and aggresive. So on many occasions we will increase our stack with around 25% with no competition. The rest of the time we will be a big or at least a slight favourite many times with only four hands (JJ+) that crushes us.

On or near the bubble I would probably fold also, though I'm pretty sure this is a ev- decision, especially since big stacks exploits the bubble and uses a wider range for raising since they know most people will fold unless they have a real monster and since we should try to go for the final table, not the small prizes in the bottom of the ITM-field.