DrTyore;182752 wroteCounterpoint...
A: You're right, it is a DoN tourney
B: You have more chips than both the other two all ins
So, your action allows you to win right now ONLY if Gavan beats maxform. However, if you call, you give yourself a chance to win if
A: You beat Maxform
B: You beat gavan
C: Gavan beats Maxform
I know that you're rarely a huge favorite in OM, but even in NLHE I'm calling here. I'm calling both AI's with a lot lighter in this situation in NLHE too.
Mark
Actually the irony is an AA hand is often pretty smelly in this spot in DoNs as very, very often the second all in also has AA (in gavins case - a regular- that is a near certainty in this spot) in which case my AA hand is pretty much an underdog vs any 4 non paired hands by the 3rd guy (the first all in). SO this is actually a very easy Omaha fold because my hand is more akin to AK or AQ facing two all ins in holdem. It looks really pretty, but not so much.
It is unlikely that the final outcome will be 1) max 2) gavan 3) Monteroy but if somehow they split the main pot I have suddenly become the real short stack. Again, more likely to happen here then in NL, and relatively unlikely but not worth the gamble with 6 left in this spot.
Also, this is why I said in NL I probably still call with AA, since it is unlikely to result in you losing to both hands, and the possibility exists that the shortie wins heads up here if you do not call in which case the other guy still has 130 chips which is critical but not impossible to make a comeback from, especially in a turbo with already healthy blinds.
A more interesting scenario for NL (since in Omaha this is an easy fold no matter what hand with my stack and a very easy call if I had a nice 4k+ stack with a lot of hands) would be if both short stacks had basically identical stacks and again I was the 3rd shortest. Go to the extreme and say all 3 of us have the same stack.
What point is it best to just muck the AA and hope the hand does not result in a tie between them that you could have beaten. Not impossible they have the same type of hand (though the obvious ones of AK or AQ are unlikely if you have two of the aces).
My hand was not a perfect example since it was Omaha and the stack sizes were not quite perfect, but it did bring up a potentially interesting legitimate `do I fold AA here`scenario.
At least that is how I thought it would be seen, some seemed to take this hand a bit too literally I guess or something. I did not anticipate being told the EV of the hand since that was never really an issue in the hand as I saw it, in fact I knew I probably had 30% EV or so given the players and the play, so the correct AA fold is said with tongue firmly in cheek.
Next time I will be less subtle and say "duh, fold AA"