massive overbet from uber lagtard

pkrfce9

i'm curious how you would go about analyzing the following situation:

extremely loose shorthanded NL game. the game will probably be breaking up shortly.

villain #1 - extreme lagtard. games are built around this guy. you have a fair bit of history with this guy. in the past year the times you have played with him he must be down at least 10,000xBBs. it is hard to put him on a hand as he loves any 2 suited, any 2 big, any pair and position and prior or future action means absolutely nothing to him. he is a real bully at the table and loves to overbet. the overbet can be anything from the nuts to a good hand to bottom pair to a missed draw to total air. in the past most have avoided big confrontations with him without a good hand so it hasn't been easy to confirm exactly what those big bets mean. he is either BB or UTG here. he has around 200xBBs after multiple buy-ins and has been up and down all night.

villain #2 - a loose player but not too hard to read. over the past year he is likely up a fair bit in the games you have been in with him. he probably gets in a bit light PF but if he makes it to the river or puts in a big bet, he generally has the goods. generally he won't call your river bet unless there is a good chance you are beat and a raise definitely means you are beat. he is on the button. he has around 300xBBs and is up huge on the night after winning a couple monster pots.

you - are probably seen as too tight for this game. villain #1 has no respect for your game and believes he can bet you off any non-nut hand with another one of his patented big bets. villain #2 probably has some respect for your game and would only make it to the river against you with a pretty good hand. you are either SB or BB here. you have about 100xBBs and are slightly down for the night.

multi-way limped pot. you have complete garbage but the rainbow flop gives you trips with an Ace on board. you lead out with a smaller than pot bet and get called by 2 villains. pot is prob around 10xBBs.

turn brings another small card which could give one of them a flush draw or a straight draw. you let villain#1 take the lead. he does not disappoint. you both call. pot is prob around 35xBBs.

river brings a Q, not completing the flush and the straight draw also missed. you have low trips with AQ for kickers. you give villain #1 a chance to bluff at it one more time. he puts in 80xBBs, somewhere between 2 and 3 times the current pot. this is enough to put you all-in. villain #2 agonizes for some time trying to decide if he should call. someone else starts talking about the hand and villain #1 angrily tells him not to discuss the hand and then goes silent. after an eternity, villain #2 finally folds.

what do you do? and more importantly why? please show your reasoning.

compuease

Well let's see you hit trips on the flop and with an A on the board he may put you on A, rag, especially when you checked the turn. He may assume you are trying to control pot size being out of position. I definitely call here... What was the flop, something like A,4,4 and you had 4,5? What would you have liked to have seen on the flop with your hand?

waltsfriend

I probably call here depending a bit on what the chatter was about the hand was before Villain #1 snapped. My instinct says that he does not want a call. He has been representing the trips, and thinks Villain #2 and you have an ace. My guess is that he has air - worst case you chop. I think the most unlikely scenario is that he has an ace since he would have liked the river and wanted a call.

g2

I think the most +EV action is to take your time "thinking" about it. Then call (or push if its a few BB more). Then when he says he has air or a pair, tell him you almost folded, otherwise he might not set his chips directly in your stack like this next time.

/g2

GTA Poker

Is there any decision here? You just described this guy as not holding trips or a tight like 95% of the time he bets big, easiest call I've ever made. From you posting this I'm assuming that you called and he had you beat? Still call every time unless you're leaving out some details or misread this guy.

herschelw

Generally I'm calling here. When faced with a super-laggy opponent who is bad and prone to overbet bluffing I use my own hand strength to determine my decisions. With that said I feel I tend to develop very nuanced reads on players and may spot some minute variation on the specific player's thinking that others would miss. I think my read may be further developed than what's stated here. With your reads in this spot it's very tough to fold to this guy. There are two things that stand out to me in this spot. The agonizing fold is likely an A based on the fact that villain #2 probably has the same read on villain #1 as you do. He has to agonize before folding because he can't be sure whether villain #1 has a hand or is making a play. Although since you don't tell me much about villain #2's ability to fold a hand it's hard to be confident about that with just your reads written here. Villain #1 is prone to overbet bluffing. If he is drawing and missed then this would be the kind of spot where he would be really tempted to do so. Given his statement to the player discussing the hand I lean more toward his play being a bluff since people with the best hand don't often raise issue with discussion of the hand unless something being said would lead someone else to fold.

JimmyHo

pkrfce9;173165 wroteriver brings a Q, not completing the flush and the straight draw also missed.

sorry Greg, with trips and an AQ kicker, all my money is going in the middle before he says bet. If he has a boat, so be it. Based on previous hands, would this player #1 slow play AA or QQ? he could have A or Q garbage for the boat but are you folding trips?? I think not. Pretty easy call in my opinion. As you say, give your chips a big kiss good bye and throw them in the middle.

After now reading the other responses, I have to agree, not much of a decision here. Not unless something was left out.

pkrfce9

thanks for the responses. i have to admit most of what has been said are the sort of things i was thinking about. anyone want to trash any of those thoughts?

my post was not about me getting a good or bad result on this one hand but making a good decision based on the info available.

i'll add more detail.

villain #1, based on my read, definitely did not have AA or QQ. he would never slowplay these, IMO.

i mentioned villain #2 was not too hard to read. his agony told me he had at least 2pr. the length of time making his decision lead me to believe it was much more likekly he also had trips but was worried about his kicker. with me to act behind, he may be been concerned about a trap.

with that, does it not polarize villain #1's holdings to be either much better or much worse than my hand? if i'm getting about 1.4:1 on my money do i need to be 40% sure he is betting a worse hand to justify a call? or 60% sure i'm beat to justify a fold?

i think there is a very small chance he's got Ace-rag for the flopped full house, he may have turned a FH with a small pair or maybe he turned or rivered 2pr or the FH? i guess he could also have trips, in which case we would most likely chop. could he have called the small flop bet hoping to catch a draw on the turn? in my mind there was also the chance he was simply trying to bully a couple of players who are unlikely to call a big bet without something very close to the nuts.

do other factors warrant consideration here - it is a 5-handed game, soon to be breaking up, villain #1 is down a bit this game. (he also lost about 200xBBs to me the last time we played.) villain #1 has come dangerously close to pot-commiting himself in the event villain#2 decides to push.

JimmyHo

pkrfce9;173165 wroteturn brings another small card which could give one of them a flush draw or a straight draw. you let villain#1 take the lead. he does not disappoint. you both call. pot is prob around 35xBBs.

why are you not check-raising here on the turn if you will consider a 80 x BB bet on the river? why let them catch up with the flush and straight draws? if you re-raise, maybe you will find out if player #1 already has the boat; just some other thoughts.

g2

pokerJAH;173206 wrotewhy are you not check-raising here on the turn if you will consider a 80 x BB bet on the river?

Because he likes money.

/g2

g2

pkrfce9;173199 wrotewith that, does it not polarize villain #1's holdings to be either much better or much worse than my hand?

Your hand, on that board, polarizes anyones holdings to be much better or worse than your. Either they have a boat, or just 2 pair. There's only 1 card out there that chops with your hand.

pkrfce9;173199 wroteif i'm getting about 1.4:1 on my money do i need to be 40% sure he is betting a worse hand to justify a call? or 60% sure i'm beat to justify a fold?

If you're trying to maximize EV, yes.

pkrfce9;173199 wrote i think there is a very small chance he's got Ace-rag for the flopped full house, he may have turned a FH with a small pair or maybe he turned or rivered 2pr or the FH?

Of course he might have that.

pkrfce9;173199 wrotein my mind there was also the chance he was simply trying to bully a couple of players who are unlikely to call a big bet without something very close to the nuts.

By your description of him, it sounds like he'd do that more than 60% of the time in this spot.

pkrfce9;173199 wrotedo other factors warrant consideration here - it is a 5-handed game, soon to be breaking up, villain #1 is down a bit this game. (he also lost about 200xBBs to me the last time we played.) villain #1 has come dangerously close to pot-commiting himself in the event villain#2 decides to push.

A played who sticks 80BB into a pot of 35BB typically has little concept of being pot-commited.

/g2

pkrfce9

g2, good points.

jimmy, i felt CRing the turn played right into the other players.

villain #2 would not call the flop on a rainbow, paired flop without something. he is loose but not an idiot. if he has just an Ace, he is not calling the CR and i'm only losing on the river if another ace comes and that would be an easy fold. if he has trips, i can be quite confident his kicker is better than mine and i doubt he folds. if he is trapping, he puts the hammer down on my CR. by just calling, i might be giving him a 5-10% chance to river me, if i am ahead of him now.

villain #1 is the wild card. if i'm way ahead, he is unlikely to call the CR he folds and i miss out on the chance to let him bluff again on the river. he could also bluff shove which would put me to a difficult decision. on the other hand, if he is way ahead, he probably pushes now and i'm not sure i can easily fold here. if he just calls, then i would suspect he is drawing but i guess he could be trapping. by just calling, i might be giving him a 20% chance to river me, if i am ahead on the turn.

i think a meaningful CR here pot-commits me, too. so i might get a bit of value out of the chasers but i'm not sure what other benefit i get from a CR here.

JimmyHo

g2;173207 wroteBecause he likes money.

/g2

so why not make them pay to chase to the river?

g2

pokerJAH;173229 wroteso why not make them pay to chase to the river?

Because they aren't going to pay.

And please don't reply saying, "Oh good, then I get the pot now". Win rate * pot size. I'd rather win 80% of 100BBs than 100% of 35BBs.

/g2

BlondeFish

pkrfce9;173199 wroteif i'm getting about 1.4:1 on my money do i need to be 40% sure he is betting a worse hand to justify a call? or 60% sure i'm beat to justify a fold?

That is the same thing. Since my read on the LAG villain is that there is more than 40% probability that my hand is better, then I would call. In other words, unless I think there's at least a 60% chance that he would overbet the pot on the river with a full house, I am calling. If he wins, I will scream "Unbelievable!" and demand a seat change, a dealer change and that the deck be changed to the lucky red deck. ;)

P.S. Please invite Unbelievable villain #1 to the upcoming home games.

compuease

BlondeFish;173289 wrote then I am considering re-raising more than folding.

Uh, villian #1 already bet enough to put Greg all-in... unless he can dig into his pocket...

BlondeFish;173289 wrote P.S. Please invite villain #2 to the upcoming home games. UNBELIEVABLE! :biggrin:

I think you mean villian #1 don't you?

800OVER

Being the results oriented reader....so did you call and what did the villain have?

Redington

pkrfce9;173165 wrote what do you do? and more importantly why? please show your reasoning.

I bitch that this guys is the luckiest sob when he flips Qx for the full house or even funnier that it could be AA that didn't have a chance to reraise

but you cant really fold either... if this guys is down as much as you say then this bet is almost 100% a missed draw and trying to scare you off the pot

If you think that this could be a well designed tilt bet because he knows that you would think he has shit and you would call him with just TPMK then there is no way this guy is down 10k BB, he is thinking way more then most

it fits either way, a missed reraise with a power house and calling the whole way to try and build a pot then doing the super aggro donk move of betting 2x pot with da nutz

but man this guy is a bad player.... and these are the places that the will be more bad then good

push my chips in the middle, but say "man you outplayed me on this one" so even if you catch him he knows this move might work next time too

ReefAquarium

Call and it's not even close.

Based on the description of the lagtard. You must call.

blackmagicz

I am still on the fence with this call or not. Without knowing the full texture of the board I can't make a reasonable deduction of the LAGtard's hand. I realize you have trips with AQ as kicker but I would first deduct what possible holding LAGtard could come in with. I understand he plays any two cards under the sun but there is always a pattern to every player's play and from what you have said you have played with him enough.

Ideally I would still want to qualify some sort of range for LAGtard calling on the flop whether you can deduce he has trips as well, well would he be playing ace rag, K rag...

The next important piece here was the fact you did not open the betting again on the turn. Your option to check here forces you to call any action on the river because you are getting exactly what you wanted the LAGtard to do. Make a huge overbet. The other play is null and I don't worry about him for a second, he was coming along with best a pair....he was playing on the fact that LAGtard was in and he wanted to grab him.

The fact that LAGtard tells everyone to shut up leads me to believe he has a monster and doesn't want anyone wising up to the fact that he is not playing like a moron and they should just call his massive overbet. To further quantify this you would have to recall times where he made overbets and on what boards did he make these bets on. Once again there will be a pattern to these kind of bets (ie LAGtards I have played against, try to push people off of made hands when scare cards come, or board pairs on the river.....etc)

I know its against conventional wisdom but playing the levels here I think villian knows you have a monster (because of your image) and is looking to stack you. But because you did not checkraise the turn you can't know for certain. With this scenario especially you are either way ahead or way behind. There are no close calls here.

In this situation I close my eyes and make the call crying.....I personally would have tried to keep control of the pot to prevent huge decisions on the river.

These are some keys that I keep in mind when playing in these type of aggressive/gambling type of games:

1. Hand ranges/betting patterns
2. Metagame - what is villians perception of you...intelligence to lay down hands or are they going to call with anything just to crack you
3. Big hands, big pots, anything under a set I am controlling the size of the pot
4. Pot control. I want to make sure I am forcing villian to bet what I want him to bet or what I am comfortable calling.

Try those little tips out and it will help you with these situations in the future.