Pippo09: folds
BigAceHole1: folds
TiMSuM: raises 430 to 1030 and is all-in
sooner_mark: calls 730
obesegringo: calls 430
*** FLOP *** [Qh 9s Tc]
sooner_mark: checks
obesegringo: checks
*** TURN *** [Qh 9s Tc] [4c]
sooner_mark: checks
obesegringo: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qh 9s Tc 4c] [3h]
sooner_mark: checks
obesegringo: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sooner_mark: shows [As Jc] (high card Ace)
obesegringo: shows [9c Kh] (a pair of Nines)
TiMSuM: mucks hand
obesegringo collected 1755 from side pot
BIGACECHEEK: shows [4h 4s] (three of a kind, Fours)
BIGACECHEEK collected 2140 from main pot
pkrfce9;171737 wrote
if you fold, he is almost definitely up against SB and BB. at best, he would have maybe a 40-60% chance to more than triple up. he has to go through the blinds next and that will eat into his stack - advantage YOU. unfortunately he will still have a bigger stack than you and you can't last through the blinds - advantage HIM. so you most likely don't make the money unless YOU get the miracle triple up in the next couple hands. if you fold, i would guesstimate your chances at making the money at maybe 55%?
if you push, for sure you're getting called by BB, and most likely SB but not for sure. note: you don't have to win the hand but you have to be sure shortie doesn't in order for you to still get to the money. his chances would likely be smaller than the first scenario, maybe 35-45% at best. i would guesstimate your chances at making the money at maybe 60%?
I actually never thought of just flat calling. It was either a fold or push decision in my head. I didn't want to end up with just over 600 chips after calling and if I lose, I'd be pushing on any two. Since I had a good hand, I ended pushing and assumed SB and BB would come along for the ride, so if I, SB or BB won..I would've monied. All I had to avoid was the shortie winning.
But now after calculating stack sizes, folding would've been very plausible. If I folded and shortie won, he'd have ~1600 in chips. He'd be posting ~1000 in the next two hands before the blinds would hit me, and when they hit me, I would have ~900 left.