Big Mike;207648 wroteWow, old thread.
Cool, this thread started on my birthday. :)
Hey wait... how did I join PFC before you?
Anyway... I'm curious: What was your intention with this hand? I agree that your opponent probably had QJ given his line, and you probably figured that out by his 3-bet on the flop. That means you flopped a gut-shot draw to the
losing straight. Were you exclusively counting on the board missing villain's straight draws, and winning by bluffing on the river? That's a crazy risk. You can't know for certain how many times villain is going to bet (after he 3-bets the flop), but as it turned out, you put 3 more big blinds in (1 on the flop and 2 on the turn)
before your bluff on the river (for another 2 big blinds). You need that to work a lot more than 1 time in 8 to be profitable.* And you're pooched if an A, Q, J, or 9 comes on the turn or river.
It worked this time, but I can't see this play (in this exact situation, where your hand can't possibly win at showdown) being profitable in the long run. In terms of outs, you were basically drawing to bottom pair... so all you had was a tiny bit of fold equity if your opponent missed his 16 "outs" (that he thought he had).
* - on the river, 1 in 8 is correct... but you had to get there - and risk several more bets - first.