Playing the Odds

jayjayhooks

My problem comes when facing a decision on the flop.

Ive noticed a big difference when playing the odds between No limit holdem, and fixed limit holdem. With no limit, its much easier to make a decision on the flop when playing the odds, especially when it comes to calling all your chips, calling an all in, or betting or raising all in. This is because you can calculate your odds of making the hand by assuming your drawing to two cards.

However, in limit holdem your often faced with another decision on the turn, which makes your decision on the flop variable. Of course knowing the texture of your opponents makes things easier in this situation, but its still tricky, especially if your an online player who plays multiple tables.

In limit holdem, is it more profitable to assume drawing to one card when making a decision to call after the flop, opposed to assuming drawing to two cards?

The odds are so vastly different, for example if I assume drawing to 2 cards with an open-ended straight draw I only need 2-1 to call, where as with one card to come, I need almost 5-1. I feel like I may be missing out on a lot of money by not knowing the difference.

Thanks a lot,
Jay Jay

adpro

I will likely be corrected on this quite a bit, but here is what I was thinking when I played my last limit tournament (I went into this one by accident).

This is the first limit tournament I had played in a long time, and I actually won the tournament. I was impressed.

Here was my thought process, though.

In limit there are going to be a lot more people seeing the river card, simply because it's easier to call the small bets and when it gets raised, players will feel it's easy to call the small raises, especially when it's only one more raise.

So, I thought like this.

If I had 8 outs, I would calculate my pot odds by assuming I was going to have to put in XxBB in the pot. I would calculate X depending on who was in the pot and what the pre-flop raises were like. So, I would decide to play or not depending on what I thought I would have to pay in total on the flop. Understand?

It's harder to do, but I feel it is one of the best ways to think about playing limit, and I honestly love it.

I was short stacked near the beginning of the tournament I was in, then I decided to play like this and stole the show. I'm actually going to post a hand in about 2 minutes from this tournament.

Hope that answers some of your questions at least. I would like to hear some advice on limit poker as well. Nice topic!!

EDIT:

Also, try not to think about calculating your odds on both the turn and the river. Calculate them as separate events. If you don't hit on the turn, calculate for the river after. The turn card can change everything, like maybe forcing you to believe that your 8 outs to the straight won't be the winning hand anymore.

Don't calculate how much you should call for both the turn and the river, cause you will likely have to call some type of raise on the river and if you use up all of your calling money on the turn, you're going over and will be under in the long run. Does that make sense?

jayjayhooks

Also, try not to think about calculating your odds on both the turn and the river. Calculate them as separate events. If you don't hit on the turn, calculate for the river after. The turn card can change everything, like maybe forcing you to believe that your 8 outs to the straight won't be the winning hand anymore.

Don't calculate how much you should call for both the turn and the river, cause you will likely have to call some type of raise on the river and if you use up all of your calling money on the turn, you're going over and will be under in the long run. Does that make sense?

Thats how ive always played in the past, but recently ive been kicking myself on the river after I would have made my flush or straight.

Most of the time my pot odds on the flop are just below par for calling, and seeing as how im treating the turn and the river as seperate events, I figure to be losing money in the long run by making that call. However I see my out hit the river often enough to make me believe there is something wrong with my thinking.

Ive been mulling it over for a couple days now, and cant find any related info in print anywhere. I have another idea though, and I hope someone can either confirm it, or save me a ton of money before I use it too long by denying it. lol

Is it justifiable to call on the flop when on a draw, if the odds are in your favour for drawing to two cards, IF you believe that if you miss the turn you will then get the proper pot odds to call for one more card?

For example, you have a gutshot straight draw and the pot is laying you 6-1 after the flop. Its a low straight but you'll make at least the second nuts, and given the action around you, you have plenty of reason to believe that when the turn comes down and misses your hand, the pot will still be laying you 11-1 to draw one more card.

(The odds of making the hand are around 10.75-1 with one card to come, and around 5.5 - 1 with two cards to come)

Both your calls would then have postive expectation right? Seeing as how you did end up sticking around for both the cards, making the 6-1 justifiable... and obviously the call on the turn is postive expectation because the pot is laying you the right odds.

herschelw

We really dont cover a lot of limit poker. But I do play up to 30-60 live so I can certainly provide some feedback here. Generally you should be factoring in what your opponents are likely to do when considering your action and what your total expense on each street will be. In limit and no limit you should calculate your decision for one street rather. However, you should also consider implied odds in your decision. If you need 4 to 1 to be able to draw and your draw is disguised well enough to be sure you'll get paid off if it's made then you can definitly consider the bets you'll get on the river into the equation.