SNG bubble fold/call/raise?

Kristy

Have a look at UTG's stack..he had already folded, and would be automatically all in for the next two hands.

bb+sb are both aggressive, and caught me in a big semi-bluff recently...they are likely shoving if I call and calling if I shove.

I really am not sure of the correct play here, I acted like nitty fag I am and folded PREFLOP

Thoughts?

AcidJoe

Kristy_Sea;164208 wroteHave a look at UTG's stack..he had already folded, and would be automatically all in for the next two hands.

bb+sb are both aggressive, and caught me in a big semi-bluff recently...they are likely shoving if I call and calling if I shove.

I really am not sure of the correct play here, I acted like nitty fag I am and folded PF

Thoughts?

Of all things I give Kristy, a nitty fag isn't one of them. When did that happen?

Kristy

earlier today, just want to make sure that everyone understands that I folded this PREFLOP, obv I'm not folding if I see that flop...I just didn't get the screen capture until the flop was down.

I wondered if I'm ever right to fold this? Gtd a call and gtd that the UTG player is going to be all in for at least the next two hands?

ReefAquarium

How big is the stack size of the guy who folded?

Cranking the stack sizes into a ICM calculator...
If he has about 3000 then you have 25% equity.
If he has 2000 you have 26.304% equity
If he has about 1000 then you have 30% equity.

So you're risking between 15% and 10% equity... at most since 3rd pays 20%.

You're only behind AA, 1/221 chance...

KK vs 3 random hands is about 57% chance to win.

In HoH3 he cranks through some numbers and concludes AA or KK is good to play... QQ isn't... I should check it and see if it applies here...

Edit, cranking the icm calclulator some more.

If you double your stack against the big stack and eliminate the short stack you will have about 32% equity...

If you bust out you will lose all equity... so your gain is at most 7% and your loss is about 25 to 30% equity..

Bleah...

Given that they will call a shove or shove just about any two cards... It looks like you could be playing for 7% equity and risking about 25-30% equity... so you better have a big advantage...

g2

It's not a satellite, it's a SNG. You nitty fag.

ReefAquarium;164232 wrote KK vs 3 random hands is about 57% chance to win.

You only need to consider KK against 2 random hands, because it is inconsequential if you lose to the micro stack.

/g2

Kristy

We can't lose to the micro stack...he had already folded. That's the problem, had he called- I shove.

The BB had roughly 3k in chips at the start of the hand.

So it is an insta-shove anyway..knowing that we're giving the 35 chips a shot at our gtd 3rd?

AcidJoe

I shove here then lose to the J 8 offsuit that flops the straight. Maybe that's why I get so many 4ths rather than make the money. I really couldn't see me folding this here. I have folded KK but after the flop.

Kristy Sea's Nitty fag school of poker opening soon :)

Graham

I think folding Kings here is extremely tight. Sure you're on the bubble, but are you playing to come in 3rd, or to win the whole thing. With hands like that I think you can shove and let them call. Chances are they aren't going to risk it unless they have really strong hands as they know that 35 chip guy will be gone soon also.

Kristy

Graham;164250 wroteChances are they aren't going to risk it unless they have really strong hands as they know that 35 chip guy will be gone soon also.

I probably must play...but this sentence is wrong.

I'm telling you 100% that at least one or both are playing if I shove.

I had pissed them off with a few embarrassing calls...ie: they shove the river and I snap call with bottom pair no kicker......

in fact a direct quote from BB was "I'm the one that's gonna get you get Kristy"

Graham

Yea, I see what you mean... then why not get in while you are ahead. This might be the last good hand you get during this sit n go. Personally, I play to win, not to just make it into the money, but maybe thats a flaw in my game.

Kristy

but the point is that I can wait one or two hands and get my chips in and called in at worst like a 60/40..with 3rd place money gtd.

I will get called by k-2o v. my a-4o with 3rd in my pocket and go for first then...is this better than getting called with kk v. xx and risking it all.

I don't know the answer.

moose

I can't pass that edge up. I fight to the bitter end. By folding you are resigning yourself to 3rd and I won't do that ever. I never hand opponents free money. A double up gives you a decent chance at 2nd. Folding cripples you with the blinds moving to 200/400 next hand.

ReefAquarium

Kristy, You need to show some love to the ICM calculator....

Start of hand...

Stack %equity

1340 26
6335 41
3000 33
35 <1

If you double through Big stack

Your Equity goes up to 30.5%

If you double through the 3000 stack

Your equity goes up to 31.445

If you double through both stacks...

Your equity goes up to 35%

So you're risking 26% to win 5% or 9%

So you need 3 to 1 or 5 to 1... to win.

Against 2 random hands KK is 67% .... so it's not good.

Against 1 random hand KK is 82% ... so it's good.

But it looks like you might have some fold equity.. the guy in the picture has folded..

Why Kristy is right....

She's risking 26% equity to win 9% more equity... but KK wins only 67% vs 2 random hands...

So if your range is correct for the villains then it's a good fold.

If the villains can play the optimal Nash equalibrium play then they should fold to her push unless they have AA or and unlikely KK. But since they are calling with any two.... you gotta fold Kristy.

If you thought you could get at least one fold then you would be correct to push.... except for the 2/221 chance of somebody waking up with AA (which we don't need to consider too often)

AcidJoe

Don't tell Kristy she's right, we'll never hear the end of it again. :)