4Bet all-in on the bubble?

liquidfire

Ok, so heres a situation i'm curious if anyone would 4-bet all in on the bubble:

There was 28 people left in a 100+9 tournament, and 27 paid:

Blinds: 500/1000
Hero: 35,000
Villian 75,000

The villian has a big stack and was abusing the bubble and taking alot of pots down by raising/re-raising etc. There were alot of 10K stacks at the table so they were obviously playing tight to make it in to the money.

Folds to hero whos in the CO with TT.
Hero raises to 3000
Villian re raises to 10,000 in the BB

Would you 4 bet all in on the bubble? or let him take it from you?

STR82ACE

Easy push. If he has a hand on you, tough break. No since folding a solid pair here to a re reaise against an aggressive player. Take him to the mat and double up to go deep, or bust on bubble and vent.

Pantsonfire

The only pause I would have in this situation is that he is now picking on a medium stack that could hurt him. Has he done this to you before or to any other medium stacks? If not, then this time it might indicate he has a hand. And if you are raising into the bully, that indicates that you also have a hand so in that case I would put him on a pretty tight range.

I know it sucks to see a big stack gobbling up blinds from timid shorties at bubble time. But this is a situation where you could actually make a tilt shove and then run into a higher pair only to ask wtf just happened.

And what is his image of you? Have you also been active and running over the 10K stacks?

I know this might seem like a gimme shove but let's think about it for a second. There are 4 hands that have you dominated and you are flipping with all paint combos. The best you can hope for is A9 or 99-22.

Unless I thought this guy was completely reckless, I probably fold regardless of any bubble situation.

MarcoGD

Let him take it. On the bubble I want to avoid a possible coin flip (which is most likely the case here) or worse. Definitely re-raising AA, KK, and maybe QQ and AKs, but, I'm folding everything else, even against this villian.

STR82ACE

Right now you're about 54% against AKs...yea, a coin flip, but I'll take the chance on it. You're dominated by JJ to AA sure, but given his aggressive play, can you really put him on that kind of strength?

You can call and see a flop, but any paint will scare you away with any kind of bet out by villian, and he will most likely put you all in first, so you're decision would be to fold and sit on 25,000 left. Tighten up more and hope for the short stacks to pick each other off. But if you're folding 1010 here, how much tighter do you have to go?

You can fold to his raise...sitting with 32,000. Still respectable stack. But I would rather try to build my stack and hope to face him with a much bigger stack later on.

Pushing here puts him to a decision. He can only call with AKo or better really and risk almost half his stack. If he's just bullying like he has been, he has to fold or rely on luck.

Trust your read and play to win. Playing to money is weak imho. If you're going to cold call him and fold on a dirty flop, you're sitting alot weaker and risk either a bubble finish still or a weak payout. Doubling up gives you a healthy stack and gets you alot deeper into the money where you can be the aggressor.

pkrfce9

ha ha. Shovel it. Hugely +ev. He can't even call 10% unless he is a maniac. And when he does call you are not always a huge dog. Plus now he won't try bullying you anymore.

Of course he is bullying the medium stacks. That is how he accumulates chips.

liquidfire

I ended up 4 betting all in.
I have been pretty card dead so I didn't play alot of hands. So I pretty much looked very tight to the villian. So with that image, I figured by 4 betting all in i can get the villian to fold ALOT of hands.

Well I was wrong, he ended up calling me with AQss and he wins the race. In my opinion, he should have folded everything but AA and KK (and possible QQ) here.

Kinda shitty result, but meh.

I figured if I won the race, I would have a chance to win the tournament.
But it always sucks busting out on the bubble. Especially when you have a really healthy stack!

DrTyore

Same thing happened to me last night

but I was playing PLOM

AAK10 (A10hh)

vs.

KK74 (K4ss)

I lose

Mark

liquidfire

Lets think of another situation:

Lets say the stack sizes/blinds are the same BUT only difference is the player is not a maniac and not abusing the bubble. Lets say he's a decent player that you do not know alot of information about. would you still 4 bet all in with TT?

pkrfce9

liquidfire;163829 wroteLets say the stack sizes/blinds are the same BUT only difference is the player is not a maniac and not abusing the bubble. Lets say he's a decent player that you do not know alot of information about. would you still 4 bet all in with TT?

only if you know he is expecting you to fold

MarcoGD

STR82ACE;163817 wroteRight now you're about 54% against AKs...yea, a coin flip, but I'll take the chance on it. You're dominated by JJ to AA sure, but given his aggressive play, can you really put him on that kind of strength?

You can call and see a flop, but any paint will scare you away with any kind of bet out by villian, and he will most likely put you all in first, so you're decision would be to fold and sit on 25,000 left. Tighten up more and hope for the short stacks to pick each other off. But if you're folding 1010 here, how much tighter do you have to go?

You can fold to his raise...sitting with 32,000. Still respectable stack. But I would rather try to build my stack and hope to face him with a much bigger stack later on.

Pushing here puts him to a decision. He can only call with AKo or better really and risk almost half his stack. If he's just bullying like he has been, he has to fold or rely on luck.

Trust your read and play to win. Playing to money is weak imho. If you're going to cold call him and fold on a dirty flop, you're sitting alot weaker and risk either a bubble finish still or a weak payout. Doubling up gives you a healthy stack and gets you alot deeper into the money where you can be the aggressor.

I understand the move is +EV and your logic is even backed up in this article: How to Play on the Bubble in Poker Tournaments, but if I'm sitting with a decent stack and only 1 bust out to go to the money, I'm folding this hand regardless of EV (unless I was on the short stack).

Is that a leak in my game?

STR82ACE

MarcoGD;163835 wrote
Is that a leak in my game?

Its only a leak if you think it restricts your money placing finishes. If you're happy with min wins, and its proving profitable for you, then no, its not necessarily a leak. Not quite the way I prefer to play, that's all I meant.

If I find myself short stack near the bubble, yes, I will tighten up massively, JUST to show a profit or get my buyin back. But if I"m sitting on average to large stack, I'll take the chance with my chips and try to go deeper where the big payouts live.

BlondeFish

The correct equity-maximizing play depends on the prize structure, relative stacks and villain's ranges. What was buy-in and prizes for 27th, 1st, etc? Without seeing the numbers and doing ICM computations, my "feel" or GUESS is folding would be the best play in both situations. Villain only needs 35% equity to make calling your all-in correct (in terms of cEV).

liquidfire;163829 wroteLets think of another situation:
Lets say he's a decent player that you do not know alot of information about. would you still 4 bet all in with TT?

pkrfce9

BlondeFish;163845 wrotevillain's ranges

all of your response is valid but i think this is the key point. what does he 3-bet with vs calling an all-in 4-bet with. i expect this is the major determinant. and if OP is painting a valid picture, there is a huge divergence between these 2 numbers. i expect his 3-bet range barely has 30% equity here. but go ahead and prove me wrong.

BlondeFish

pkrfce9;163846 wrotei expect his 3-bet range barely has 30% equity here. but go ahead and prove me wrong.

OK, I shall. :) By only re-raising to $10K instead of all-in, there is a high probability that villain has a strong enough hand that he doesn't mind a call or would call an all-in. Something like the top 20% of hands would be a reasonable 3-bet range for the villain, and this has 41% equity against TT. Hero does not have enough fold equity against a reasonable 3-bet range, so folding would be better than re-raising all-in. Without seeing more numbers, villain made the correct call with AQs even if he thinks that hero would go all-in only with the top 10% of hands. OK, I have reached my posting quota for today, so I'm off to the Fallsview WPT room....

SirWatts

snap shove

schabs

Tough play, I'd probably shove.

pkrfce9

BlondeFish;163851 wrote By only re-raising to 30K instead of all-in, there is a high probability that villain has a strong enough hand that he doesn't mind a call or would call an all-in. Something like the top 20% of hands would be a reasonable 3-bet range for the villain, and this has 41% equity against TT.

but he only raised to 10k. i think his range is much broader than top 20%. like something approaching 90% if he knows people will almost always get out of his way.

his call with AQ is ldo but that doesn't mean the shove is the wrong move here.

sirwatts, how about some analysis so us peons can learn how to look at these situations better?