Folding Sets on the Flop

cadillac

Any one who is planning on folding sets on the flop when they are not super deep stacked is a passive pussy and should check out Insane Guy's thread about getting butt sexed by his strap-on wearing girl friend. This should be right up your alley.

Milo

cadillac;174851 wroteAny one who is planning on folding sets on the flop when they are not super deep stacked is a passive pussy and should check out Insane Guy's thread about getting butt sexed by his strap-on wearing girl friend. This should be right up your alley.

POTD

But wait until AFTER his date trolls by. Wouldn't want her to get the wrong impreesion of him, now would we?

cadillac

Lets make this a tad poker related....because idiotic discussions tilt me.

Lets explore the idea of folding a set on the flop against the nittiest of pre-flop nits.

$100 NL. Villain opens to $3.50 in the CO and we are on the button with two black 9's. Effective stacks are $100

We decide that our super nit villain has an opening range of KK+ and AK. We decide to flat call because it is in the first 15 minutes of the hour. Don't debate the range it is for educational purposes.

Blinds fold.

Flop is As Kh 9h

This flop hit his range in the sweet spot. Do we want to get it all in here?

I say YES!

There are 16 hand combinations of AK and 6 of KK and 6 of AA.

Of the 28 possible combos in his range you are ahead of 16. That is a bit better than 58%.

Even against this super nitty range you are still ahead on this flop in this spot. Now we have concluded that 58% of the time he has 2 pair and is drawing to 4 outs. If we get it in here he hits his hand 16.5% of the time (9 times out of the 58 )

So it looks like this:

$8.50 in the middle pre-flop.

42 times out of 100 he has a set of Aces of Kings and we need running 9's to win. So lets say we lose 100% of the time. We have $96.50 still in our stack times 42 equals ($4053)

9 times out of 100 he has top 2 pair and boats up before the river. $96.50 X 9 equals ($868.50)

49 times out of 100 our set holds to take the pot so we win the $8.50 in the middle and another $96.50 from his stack. $105 total X 49 equals $5145.

($4053)
($868.50)
$5145
----------
$223.50

You theoretically make $2.23 every time you make this play. This game is rake free obv.

Now if it is profitable to ship here against this guys range on this flop then it is not profitable to fold sets against anyone. Barring a huge pulsating jugular live tell or some shit.

To answer OP's original question. You need to be pretty deep 150BB+ and have a very good read to be folding sets on the flop.

13CARDS

Deleted

actyper

You shove and stack AA or KK or AhKx unless they have a H and hit on you. or you get stacked by AhKh

JimmyHo

pokerJAH;157162 wroteOn a different board, I'm not folding trips, period.

well I guess I have to take this comment back. First time I can recall ever folding a set on the flop. 22 on a flop of 25s10s. MP raises to $10, followed by $50 re-raise. I flat call hoping original short stack raiser will push for final $70. Before it gets to original raiser, another player pushes all-in for another $85. Original raiser folds and $50 dude thinks and pushes for about $350 more. I have them covered. Never seen this guy push before without a very good hand so my gut tells me better set. Let my $50 investment go. Both guys are on a flush draw (great fold ugh). Spade comes on the river giving one guy the K high flush, and other guy hits a straight flush.

JohnnieH

pokerJAH;244676 wrotewell I guess I have to take this comment back. First time I can recall ever folding a set on the flop. 22 on a flop of 25s10s. MP raises to $10, followed by $50 re-raise. I flat call hoping original short stack raiser will push for final $70. Before it gets to original raiser, another player pushes all-in for another $85. Original raiser folds and $50 dude thinks and pushes for about $350 more. I have them covered. Never seen this guy push before without a very good hand so my gut tells me better set. Let my $50 investment go. Both guys are on a flush draw (great fold ugh). Spade comes on the river giving one guy the K high flush, and other guy hits a straight flush.

As I was reading this I thought that 34s might be out there. Nice fold.

Considering that, and the slight possibility of over-sets, I think I get away from this.

JtotheLew

You have 77 in ep and raised it pre to get 2 callers who have position on you..

Flop comes 7s8s9s..

you check, mp bets 2/3 the pot and and lp reraises enough to put you basically all in...

I think this is a laydown with one to act behind you who has already shown aggression oop into the pot..

I could be wrong and it is obv situation dependent but I think you should probably fold to pick a better spot in situations like this.

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