I used a different ICM approach. If JJ calls (instead of folding) and wins, she gains $198,917 in
prize equity. If she calls but loses the hand, she loses $140,250 in prize equity. Her cash EV is therefore
$EV = ~47% * $198,917 - 53% * $140,250
= +$19,158
As long as her chance of winning the hand is at least
41%, she would maximize her cash EV by calling.
Interestingly, 41% is the same result I got when calculating
chip equity. Since she needed to call 2,295K chips for a total pot of 5,550K chips, she only needed a 41% chance of winning (2295/5550) to make calling correct. So the basic pot odds analysis that I was doing while watching the hand on TV has the same result as doing the much more complicated ICM analysis later. In the case of a winner-take-all structure or when it is down to two players, you just have to worry about maximizing chip EV since it is the same as maximizing cash EV.
pkrfce9;152421 wroteif jj folds, her $ev is a shade under 55% of the pool.
if she calls, she loses 53% of the time for a $ev of about 46% of the pool
and she wins 47% of the time for a $ev of about 67% of the pool.
this nets out to a $ev of a call of about 56% of the pool.
so calling is marginally +ev. (given the size of the pool, it is worth about 17k or 1.5+ buyins!)
note, in order for JJ to make this decision, she has to be able to put ted on this exact hand, which i'd say would require an extreme soul read.
No, she did not need to know his exact hand. She could have used the R.E.M. method (Range, Equity, & Maximize). In other words, if she was able to figure out that she probably had over 40% equity against Ted's RANGE of hands (which includes a significant chance of bluffing), then she would have realized that calling would be the correct EV-maximizing decision. In addition, unless you think that you have a huge skills advantage over Ted Forrest to pass up on an expected gain of over $19,000, then calling is even easier.