Wetts1012;147568 wroteI think you're missing the point of the post.
Any time you crack aces - you got lucky (statistically speaking).
The point is not that the K2 call on the turn was bad - I'm sure Str82ace would admit to that openly.
The point is that AA was terribly played. Any time you limp -check-check a straighty / flushy board you put yourself in a situation to lose a pot. Had the hero checked behind on the turn (he had position) - we would not be praising the villain for a great trap.
I hope we all agree that the final result of the hand is not the point but rather the same hand being played out with different cards coming out. And for this hand, if we played each one of those 46 cards left in the deck for the river card one hand at a time, then over the 46 different card outcomes, the guy with AA is going to come out way ahead, even if hero folded correctly on the river those 41 times where he didn't outdraw him.
Okay, let's say hero checked the turn. What do you think is going to happen on the river for each of those 46 possible river cards? How many of those cards could hero fold to an all-in with his top pair? We know of 5 of those where he definitely wouldn't fold (2 Ks and 3 2s). So what else is folding to? There are 2 aces left so maybe if one of those hit. But what else? There are no flushes. Perhaps if a J hit? Probably not, so over those 46 possible outcomes, AA is going to average a very nice win, even with a check on the turn.
If we step back to the flop, we can see that hero is in an even bigger world of hurt since he has no pair and no draw. He has to hit runner runner to catch up and over come AA. Say they both checked the flop and turn. Hero will still be ahead with his AA at a very high percentage, let's say 95% against that runner runner. However, a lot times hero will now have a pair and will lose a bet. Sometimes hero will bet on the end with K high and lose. Overall, I would say that again AA will come out ahead.
So why does this seem so counterintuitive? Well I think the first stumbling block is that AA is not deep stacked. The pot on the flop is 400 and AA has 1575 left.
One could almost argue that the best way to play AA in this spot is to check it to the river and hope hero can call a big bet (or make one at some point).
I suppose the type of players these guys are is a factor as well. If you are against a calling station you want to just make normal value raises and bets. Against a hyper-aggressive you want to show weakness and come over the top.
If none of that is there and the players are fairly normal, then I argue the play by AA is completely acceptable due to the fact that over the long run, he will make more by playing it this way.