Whitehorse.
I doubt he's calling my utg raise light here with my stack getting short. And he pot comitts himself with the flop bet. Maybe AK and he's ahead and I have outs, maybe AQ with a diamond and I'm ahead or AK with a d and I'm screwed?
Who shoves who folds?
*********** # 15 **************
PokerStars Game #13490972205: Tournament #65104523, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/11/26 - 21:09:58 (ET)
Table '65104523 2' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Gide_ (2515 in chips)
Seat 3: stpboy77 (1135 in chips)
Seat 4: Woog30 (2715 in chips)
Seat 5: Akala16 (1095 in chips)
Seat 8: Buzzzardd (3120 in chips)
Seat 9: BAshfield11 (1420 in chips)
stpboy77: posts small blind 25
Woog30: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Akala16 [Js Jd]
Akala16: raises 150 to 200
Buzzzardd: folds
BAshfield11: folds
Gide_: folds
Buzzzardd said, "that was lucky"
stpboy77: folds
Woog30: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [3d Td Kd]
Woog30: bets 350
Akala16: folds
Woog30 collected 425 from pot
Woog30: doesn't show hand
SirWatts
I would wager all of my chips, it's pretty hard for you to be in bad shape.
The_Awesome
There is still a good chance you have him beat. This is one of the keys to no limit hold'em. He bets $350 after the flop. Due to the size of the bet vs. how many chips you have left you are left with only 2 choices... fold or go all in. So for just $350 he putting your $895 on the line. That's great value. I will make that bet every time after that flop no matter what I catch or don't catch. More often then not it will take down the pot.
The wrong move would be to check to you and let you go all in.
cadillac
His range should be really wide in this spot so you have so many ways to win this pot:
1. You could be ahead right now.
2. Your flush draw could be live
3. He could be bluffing and will fold to a push
4. Your have too much equity to fold
This is a perfect spot for the bet he has made because for less than 10% of his stack he has:
1. Put a decision on you for all of your chippies
2. Pretty solid fold equity
Whitehorse. Why don't you put him on a range of hands and pokerstove it.
Post your results.
woog30
Whitehorse,
I will post my hand a little later to leave this up for discussion.
Buzzzardd
woog30;131413 wroteI will post my hand a little later to leave this up for discussion.
I play at least once a week with Roger. He claims he only plays quality hands and I know he would never lie to me.
Kristy
he struck me as an upstanding gent.
fold
ChrisWinsor
I push for reasons stated above.
blackmagicz
Seems like 1 of 2 scenarios
He has a monster draw and puts you on AK, etc and he wants you to shove over top on him so he can call.
1. If you miss the flop he can win out right.
2. If you hit the flop he is not folding so he might as well lead out. 350 into 475 seems rather high but considering your stack it seems like he wants you to shove.
Now the next scenario he has hit the board and has kicker problems. He needs to lead out to see where he is at. Two pair will check to you as well as a set. At this point I am not afraid of a flush draw heads up as I know with a 4x raise you are definitely going to CB the flop if I check to you so he may be thinking the same thing.
Its hard to keep going with that board (overpair, flush draw, straight draw) I would lay it down...the blinds are low enough that you can fight another day.
woog30
Buzzzardd;131422 wroteI play at least once a week with Roger. He claims he only plays quality hands and I know he would never lie to me.
Thanks Dave it's about time you started to believe me...lol
I called your original raise with K10s (150 into a pot of 275), understanding that your stack is getting shorter and I could get away easily if I don't hit big. I bet out to avoid you checking behind to allow another diamond to roll off. If you have AA or AK your still putting your chips in and possibly QQ, JJ or AQ that includes a diamond. AA with a diamond is about a 2% favourite, all other hands except for KK and 1010(which I'm dead or close to) I'm about 55 to 60% favourite.
I'd like to hear other opinions on my thought process.
The_Awesome
woog30 I think you played it right. It would have been hard to narrow your hand down which means there are so many hands the Js can still beat that you could have.
I would have ended up going all in on you hoping you didn't catch the K. But as it turns out my luck would have run out ;).
_obv_
I definitely shove JJ in that spot... if you don't already have the best hand you are rarely in bad shape.
woog30... fold KT preflop... you dont hit big near enough to make this call against that stack size.
Kristy
Kristy_Sea;131423 wrotehe struck me as an upstanding gent.
fold
Where's the love?
woog30
Kristy_Sea;131423 wrotehe struck me as an upstanding gent.
fold
Where's the love?
For such a brief encounter during the tourney your read could not get any closer to the truth. I never try to steal a pot therefore folding anytime I bet to you will be beneficial if your at Dave's on Saturday.
Buzzzardd
_obv_;131465 wrotewoog30... fold KT preflop... you dont hit big near enough to make this call against that stack size.
He knocked me out when he called with K-J and hit 4 F'n kings.
(Only a donkey would make that call.) Mike Matusow
blackmagicz
woog30;131456 wroteThanks Dave it's about time you started to believe me...lol
I called your original raise with K10s (150 into a pot of 275), understanding that your stack is getting shorter and I could get away easily if I don't hit big. I bet out to avoid you checking behind to allow another diamond to roll off. If you have AA or AK your still putting your chips in and possibly QQ, JJ or AQ that includes a diamond. AA with a diamond is about a 2% favourite, all other hands except for KK and 1010(which I'm dead or close to) I'm about 55 to 60% favourite.
I'd like to hear other opinions on my thought process.
I think in this situation a check is not a bad thing, you are heads up and if indeed he is on a flush draw you find out on the flop if he checks, otherwise the only play there for the original raiser is to bet out. Then you CR and get all his money in. You also save yourself if a flush comes because you know on the turn he may value bet it and you still have outs to pair the board and you can easily get away from the 2 pair if you miss on the river.
With the bet on the flop and then he calls you know right away he is drawing and if he does have AX, he is priced in because at that point if he did raise with AQ, AJ, he is also drawing to a straight with two cards to come.
Either way you played the hand thinking of the flush draw on the flop, so you did play accordingly. If you actually look at the probability of flopping a flush draw heads up with a 4x bet range with that board it may be a little slimmer.
Good bet, good fold :)
cadillac
Here I did it for you:
Board: 3d 9d Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.514% 66.33% 00.18% 131993 363.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 33.486% 33.30% 00.18% 66271 363.00 { 22+, A4s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, A9o+, KTo+ }
Your equity is obv huge in this spot. Knowing his hand it looks like a good fold but long term, this play is a loser.
Flame away...
Kristy
I'm confused didn't most agree with you..long term call?
I was being situational, I spent most of the tourney with woog30 on my immediate right.
I said fold definitively only to that specific player in that specific tournament in that specific set of circumstances.
moose
The equity is a little high because many of those hands, which may call preflop, aren't likely to bet into the hero on that flop. Some of the hands are double suited in DD only and the Axo hands have to include Ad.
We don't have to drop out many hands from Caddy's range (some of the smaller pairs and a few of the weaker gappers) and we get a neg equity.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
107,910 games 0.005 secs 21,582,000 games/sec
Board: 3d 9d Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.855% 47.53% 00.33% 51289 351.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 52.145% 51.82% 00.33% 55919 351.00 { 88+, 33, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, KTs+, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, J9s, T9s, AKo, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, A9o, KTo+ }
blackmagicz
Wasn't the board K103? Doesn't that change the mathematics?