Thread: I'm not good enough to fold this...

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    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
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    I'm not good enough to fold this...

    Just curious how strong your hand has to be to call here?

    4 handed NL game. Utg opens for 3.5bbs. You are on the button and reraise to 8 bbs. Blinds get out of the way. Utg thinks about it briefly and ships for 200 bbs and has you covered. That is when you utter that famous line. You hum and haw for a while. Utg tells you he doesn't want a call as it will end the game one way or the other.

    Bit of background. The game has the 72 option where all the players pay you 2bbs if you win the hand and show 72.

    You busted a few hands ago with 72 when you hit middle pair on the flop and shoved almost 50 bbs into top pair, turned 2pr then got rivered by higher 2pr. You are on tilt and re bought for 120bbs.

    Utg is the most savvy player at the table. He has won a couple of 72 hands and recently got caught by you and showed the 72. He is a bit taggish in general but has opened up with it being 4 handed and 72 after all.

    Discuss if you care to take a stab.

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  2. #2
    OHTNCTRHM
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    4 handed how often do u think 72 even gets dealt??

    Hint: not enough that it should be a factor in any decision u make, especially an all in

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    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
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    The odds of any of the 4 having 72 in any hand are approx 5%. We have played approx 250 hands and 72 has been shown maybe 6 or 7 times. There may be a few times where it wasn't shown.

    72 occurs as often as AA KK and AKs combined. Should those be ignored too?

    You just got caught shoving 72 so you can't say it isn't a factor in your thinking.

    Back to the question. How strong does your hand have to be to call here?

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    Last edited by pkrfce9; Jul 14,2014 at 09:40 AM.
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  4. #4
    OHTNCTRHM
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    KQ sooooooooooooted

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    Part-time grinder JimmyHo's Avatar
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    8 high? 5%? I'm confused??

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    I get this question a lot in one form or another, its more immediately indentifiable when we understand how to deal with it (or even how to 'dissolve' it). It comes in the form of "I 3bet a decent hand, didn't expect villain to shove and now I'm going through all possible known information and I still can't discern the answer."

    The common mantra that gets cited is "you should make up your mind before you 3bet", however that doesn't really help us make a correct decision, it only helps us not have to "tank" in the moment (we still have to tank before we 3bet then).

    I like to think of the hand from a different perspective, with information that doesn't immediately seem relevant but I think is the source of the "tough spot" namely what is going on outside of this particular hand. Again it might not solve the problem of never having a tough decision, but many "tough" spots for most people can be 'indirectly' (and often correctly) avoided.

    To do this we should think of our 3betting frequencies (and maybe more importantly our percieved 3betting frequencies) since if they are tight we cannot expect villains 4bet range to be very wide (on average). Yet if we have a wider perceived 3 betting range then we can often make more comfortable calls with hands that most people have issues with. This also allows our villains to make more mistakes if they tend to open up to far.

    If we have a wider perceived 3betting range and villain simply won't ever open up, then we can 3bet trash or non nut hands that play well post flop, and expect our villain to fold pre a lot, or to flat and play us oop (a good thing too!) .

    It's true that we can induce action that isn't always wanted but if we use that action to our advantage we can often get our value hands paid off more by players that don't quite understand the 3bet/4bet game.

    I don't specifically know your overall attack plan, say, for this table, but without a detailed 3betting history (and villains responses), I might assume that the easiest way for you to sort this decision out is to have a wider 3betting range in general and then we can avoid "tough" spots to some degree (especially 4 handed).

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    Part-time grinder JimmyHo's Avatar
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    if you think he has any two random cards, I likely call with Q10 or better (K10,KJ, QJ, 22, etc). Really depends whether you want to risk 200bb when you only have committed 8bb?

    There use to be this guy at Rogers who would shove $500 with any two cards pre-flop. It didn't matter what he had, he would shove just to get action and dirty other players. He would even show you his hand to get action. Most players would still fold, even after he showed them 810off, because they didn't want to risk their entire stacks and get dirtied.

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    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
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    Startles is on the right track. It's live without stats. Let's assume both players have made some adjustments and opened up their 2 and 3 bet ranges but probably not as much as they should - as is probably the case with most rec players.

    So startles, what is the correct calling range? Something tells me you know the math for this...

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    No what sucks about me is I can rarely produce 'reliable' math, I can only play with the concepts. But if we are just adding 72 in their range then its not going to change our calling range by more than a hand basically I guess. I'm not sure how these games go, if 6bbs (thats the extra payout?) goes to the winner only. Can't be sure they are even always shoving it?

    I'd prob call AQo without thinking much about it, maybe TT and not sure how much wider I would go without already seeing a showdown. Maybe ajs and 99 if we feel they shove 72 a lot, not sure if those are exactly the next best hand. But if they are doing this kind of non standard stuff a ton then we can bust them by waiting for a hand. If they don't then I wouldn't really open up in this way anyways.

    There will always be tough cut off hands, but sometimes we can define our villain better if we have 3bet/folded to them, or 3bet and they called and we showed down etc. They are a savvy player, and they won't generally 4bet shove 120bbs with air, and if they haven't seen you 3bet fold in position a lot then they'll generally put you on a value range that you don't normally fold.

    I think if you are 3betting some bluff hands either to play post flop in position or to get some folds in spots like this then you are doing you job and don't need to stress about the really tough hands. Like AJo for example might be correct or wrong to call or fold, but its not going to effect your overall game as much as having a solid preflop strategy with good use of position.

    Curious about what hands you are considering the boardline? It's obviously somewhat different for everyone regardless.

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    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
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    Come to think of it, i'm not sure there had been a 4 bet up to this point. There had been lots of folds to 3 bets though.

    If I get some time on my computer I'll try to put together some hand ranges to aid the analysis.

    Can you conclude from that there is some bluffing going on, probably not enough and that players are not being adequately aggressive?

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  11. #11
    OHTNCTRHM
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    I think we might as well just call unexploitably , and call any hand without a 7 or 2 in it, so that we have live cards and are balanced against his range.

  12. #12
    Administrator compuease's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OHTNCTRHM View Post
    I think we might as well just call unexploitably , and call any hand without a 7 or 2 in it, so that we have live cards and are balanced against his range.
    Wouldn't you WANT to call even more if you had a 7 or a 2 with an obviously dominating hand. Or am I missing something here?

    Playing a 7,2 game becomes much more player dependent, fun to play in a low stakes environment but it certainly raises variance if played regularly.
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  13. #13
    OHTNCTRHM
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    I was trolling :-\

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    Full PFC Member reibs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OHTNCTRHM View Post
    I was trolling :-\
    cant even troll the old bugger anymore. :baffled:

  15. #15
    Administrator compuease's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OHTNCTRHM View Post
    I was trolling :-\
    Quote Originally Posted by reibs View Post
    cant even troll the old bugger anymore. :baffled:
    Against anyone else I recognize the troll.... Against you, I figure you're serious..:D
    If someone doesn't hate you, you're a wimp... comp: circa 2012.. and now 2013 as well, quite likely continuing into 2014, Now confirmed as CONTINUING well into 2014. Ah, f'it, 2015's just more of the same..

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