Thread: Playing Super draws, hand analysis and thoughts please!

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 31
  1. #16
    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    5,659
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    hand 1: i saw the hand. your re-raise pf was insufficient. should have been 13-14. so close enough i guess.

    knowing his hand, he called almost 10% of his stack with that garbage, OOP? shame on you andrew! but i suppose he KNEW he could outplay 2 players OOP, right?

    on the flop, your hand is strong. you have 1 out to the straight flush, 6 outs to the nut straight and 8 outs to a flush but this could easily be second best.

    I would assume he is bluffing 10% of the time. Having a 3rd player still to act even though he checked the first time around could indicate a smaller likelihood of a bluff here. Given the bet sizing, he is never folding with a made hand or strong draw (K high flush or similar straight draw). I would not put him on AA, KK, QQ or AK. Maybe AQ, A8s, Acxc, Kc9c, JT, KJ, AJ or 88?

    I don't think calling is ever a good move here. So push or fold. Go ahead and stove that. My guess is you have 30-40% equity. My intuition tells me it is a fold but it could be close. fold > push >> call.
    I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!

  2. #17
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    1,781
    Mentioned
    2 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    for sure, no problem at all. I can't call myself any good at them either, but I love playing around with it. The images above come from EquiLab - it's free, PM your e-mail and I'll send it over. PT4 is also very slick, if you have some hand histories built up I can show you how to navigate them and some of the reports etc. If you haven't set up your HUD yet we should do that too. The disclaimer though is that I totally suck at online poker. I have busted my stars account 5 times this year and am going to be sticking to live... so take it more as poker discussion than actual training!!

  3. #18
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Waterdown
    Posts
    1,275
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I am okay with that! I will pm you email.

  4. #19
    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    5,659
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    Also, though you are very right about remembering the math on those for next time, but to me that is as simple as figuring out what hand you think your up against, counting your outs, doing some basic math, than thinking about the 100+ hand ranges, effective stacks, +- EV based on certain hands and if more ppl call etc.
    well, there are some tricks to this that the 'pros' on here won't share with you. (are there any left?)

    i've looked into it but haven't put in enough effort to really master it. if i get more serious about playing cash games i'm sure it will be very useful stuff. if you and andrew are serious about it, i'd like to join your study group and get deeper into this.
    I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!

  5. #20
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Waterdown
    Posts
    1,275
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I dont know about Andrew, but I will hardly call it a study group, I would call it someone more proficient on software helping and complete helpless wanderer find his way. But I would certainly be open to a skype "study session" or live or wtv to help improve sngs, mtt and cash. For now I am strictly NLHE but down the road am willing to branch and learn more. I just feel like theres a lot to learn about this game before throwing other games in the mix. Andrew, study group?

  6. #21
    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    5,659
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    To the unenviable Mr fillmaff, I think your ranges are off. The button's raising range can be wider but the hj calling range SHOULD be tighter. It wasn't so my read is off...

    If I have the time and inclination I'll take a stab later.

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
    I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!

  7. #22
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    1,781
    Mentioned
    2 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by pkrfce9 View Post
    To the unenviable Mr fillmaff, I think your ranges are off. The button's raising range can be wider but the hj calling range SHOULD be tighter. It wasn't so my read is off...
    Yeah you are probably right given the stack sizes. That will change the numbers a bit, I'll run it again tomorrow but I still think shove > fold.

    Here is the range in question, we can definitely take out 55/44/33/22, 87s / 67s, ATo, and A9s to A6s:


  8. #23
    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    5,659
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I think you can take aa-jj and some of the stronger aces out of the 3b calling range. These would most likely be 4b especially with another person still in the hand and hj being oop.

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
    I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!

  9. #24
    Chocolate Timbit MsBlue's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Hamilton, ON
    Posts
    84
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    If a skype group ever gets going, I'd love to join in!

  10. #25
    Full PFC Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    waterloo
    Posts
    929
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    I would be interested in an MTT skype group too i suck at cash games
    In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

  11. #26
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    1,781
    Mentioned
    2 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    yep never used skype but I'm sure I can figure it out. In!

  12. #27
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Waterdown
    Posts
    1,275
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    see new thread about mtt study group so we can leave this for real analysis and chatter.

  13. #28
    Full PFC Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    waterloo
    Posts
    929
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.

    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c

    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

    button has 10cJc.

    Pot is $95

    Hijack has $75 behind

    Button has $250 behind

    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?


    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?



    Any and all answers are appreciated. I wont say in what position I am in, just want to see decision making on here in these spots, then I will reveal and my thoughts.
    For hand 1,

    If i was button i'm jamming in this spot, although HJ would get 2.6/1 and would be getting the odds to call a ton of times, we are ahead a lot of the times and we do want him to call.

    If we give HJ the tightest range which would be 88,A8s,A8o,Q8s,Q8o,TJo,TJs
    we are ahead 53% of the time.



    Hand 2,

    Is this NL Holdem or Limit holdem? the raise sizes are very weird pot is 925 then bb leads to 200 then a raise to 400??:confused2:

    On the turn after the maniac action going on I will check behind if it was checked to me, also i'd rather get the straight than the flush since someone could have a flush combo with Ah. The sizing to 400 on the button doesn't change anything i'd rather just call or raise bigger because raising to 400 is useless.

    I'm not sure but i think utg +1 is super strong, like QJhh or 33s but idk why would he limp.

    I would see what is the action on the turn and try to get to the river as cheaply as possible then value you town on the river if i hit. If there was a lot of action on the turn i'd look at my odds then decide but after all the action on the flop i'm not loving my hand as well as its only a draw.
    In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

  14. #29
    Full PFC Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    484
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Hand 1: I don't think there's very much fold equity but, with 15 outs twice, I'm just getting it in and praying I’m not up against Ax of clubs. Only need to win ~40% of the time to break even and, if you have any sort of fold equity, even less than that.

    Hand 2: Flop play by everyone is weird but whatever. I'd just flat the turn with position and bomb river for value if you hit.

    On a side note, I'd put the stack sizes and hero's hand at the start of the hand history. Especially without stack sizes, you're kind of forced to read the hand twice.

  15. #30
    Full PFC Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    484
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by Bfillmaff View Post
    Given that there are two players in the pot, double the chance of a player calling, for a total of a 50% shot at a fold/call.

    So 50% of the time we get two folds and take down $5721

    and 50% of the time we get it in for 6k (average of the 2 eff stacks) as a 34% to win.

    so 34% of the time that we get it in, we win 11721, and 66% of the time we lose 6000.

    There is also the scenario that both call, in which case you actually gain equity, but to keep it simple I won't include it.

    Add it all up: (5721 * .5) + ((11721 * .34) + (-6000 * .66) *.5)

    = 2860 + ( (3985 + -3960) * .5)

    = 2860 + 12.5

    EV = +2872.5

    verdict, SHIP IT!! Thoughts?
    There is absolutely no scenario where you are winning this pot with a shove uncontested. UTG+1 calls off 1500 and you think he folds his remaining 1600 getting something like 5.5:1?

    Shoving is probably +EV but so is the much lower variance option of flatting. This early in the tournament, the disadvantage of having 20bb (shoving and losing) compared to 70bb (flatting and losing) is much greater than any impact winning this pot will have. Easy flat especially in position, imo. Out of position, it's a bit closer but I'd probably still flat if the pot size and bet were the same.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •