Thread: Playing Super draws, hand analysis and thoughts please!

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  1. #1
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    Playing Super draws, hand analysis and thoughts please!

    Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.

    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c

    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

    button has 10cJc.

    Pot is $95

    Hijack has $75 behind

    Button has $250 behind

    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?


    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?



    Any and all answers are appreciated. I wont say in what position I am in, just want to see decision making on here in these spots, then I will reveal and my thoughts.

  2. #2
    Full PFC Member trigs's Avatar
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    i'll provide my very amateur opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.

    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c

    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

    button has 10cJc.

    Pot is $95

    Hijack has $75 behind

    Button has $250 behind

    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?
    first, i'm curious about the preflop button raise. is this standard? this is not your concern here, but i was just curious.

    on the flop, what kind of hand is HJ check/raising with? AA and QQ are probably reraising preflop i'd imagine so i'd omit those. 88 improved to trips is possible for a check/raise (although i personally would think leading out with them is a better play).

    maybe an Acxc holding top pair and nut flush may check/raise. AcKc is a possibility and may look like a good check/raising hand for villain. AQ two pair check/raise maybe as well. i don't see HJ doing this with the Kc 2nd nut flush draw and no straight draw (as you are holding blockers for that hand).

    AcKc were far behind. 88 is about 60%-40%. AQ is pretty much a flip. pretty sure i'm putting HJ all in here.


    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?
    first, what's with the limit play on the flop? $200 into $900 pot, then min raised to $400, then $600? that's some crazy playing there (unless this is actually limit holdem but i'm assuming not due to the BB's turn bet).

    seems like UTG+1 is just desperately chasing a flush draw for his tournament life so i'm not too worried about him.

    as far as BB's line goes, i really don't know what he could have. 2 pair is possible. i don't see him making this line with a weak flush draw but it's possible. just calling the 3bet flop and then leading the Jd turn is strange to me. T9 chasing the gut shot and getting there or maybe Th9h would make more sense i guess. still a strange line.

    idk, i think i'll leave this one to others.

  3. #3
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
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    I won't comment on Hand 1 (since I was in it!) - but for hand 2 I am shipping it in on the turn.


    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?
    The weird flop play doesn't scream anything overly strong, so we have fold equity, the squeeze working for us, and then 17 outs if we do happen to get a call. Effective stack is 9.7k with 5.7k in the pot... close enough, shove it.

    Taking a look at the ranges you are ahead... not sure if this is 100% but should be close?

    After the weird turn action, we can narrow down both ranges quite a bit.

    UTG+1 looks like this after the turn:


    and the BB has a bunch more suited cards (in hearts) given the free look preflop and the action on the flop:


    which looks like this:



    now if we shove on the turn, one of them could call with these 124 hands


    out of the 400+ (average) in the turn ranges. So we are getting a fold 2 out of 3 times, and 1 out of 3 times we are getting it in with 34% equity:


    Given that there are two players in the pot, double the chance of a player calling, for a total of a 50% shot at a fold/call.

    So 50% of the time we get two folds and take down $5721

    and 50% of the time we get it in for 6k (average of the 2 eff stacks) as a 34% to win.

    so 34% of the time that we get it in, we win 11721, and 66% of the time we lose 6000.

    There is also the scenario that both call, in which case you actually gain equity, but to keep it simple I won't include it.

    Add it all up: (5721 * .5) + ((11721 * .34) + (-6000 * .66) *.5)

    = 2860 + ( (3985 + -3960) * .5)

    = 2860 + 12.5

    EV = +2872.5

    verdict, SHIP IT!! Thoughts?
    Last edited by Bfillmaff; Jun 04,2014 at 12:30 PM.

  4. #4
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    To be honest, I thought there would be more responses on this so far, but ill give it some more time. Yes Bfillmaff, you certainly could stay quiet on hand 1, but wouldnt it be fun to see your thoughts on that situation too, just dont disclose in what position you were in, just maybe look at the hand objectively?

  5. #5
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    Also thank you for going soo in depth on the 2nd hand. Since most decisions are based on a shorter time scale than to sit down, go through all the options on the fly, do the math and make a decision, how about just thoughts based on feelings and simple math opposed to counting out all pure possibilities just for numbers sake, although that is good to see and know. Does that make sense?

    Like if your in a live game, and unless your rainman, or someone way better at math than myself, those numbers would be nowhere in site at that moment.

    So maybe some questions based on player feel, or table dynamics or anything etc. Just curious what else people can offer, suggest that I can learn from and evaluate.

  6. #6
    Full PFC Member trigs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    To be honest, I thought there would be more responses on this so far
    strat talk on this forum is dying sucks because some of us need all the help we can get.

    i know some choose to remain quiet because they don't feel that they are "good enough" to comment (myself included), but since literally no one is commenting lately i've been trying to give my input.

    it'd be greatly appreciated if some of the better players could find some time to help us out. i remember a time when strat threads would run pages long with multiple suggestions and dialogue *sigh*

    personally, i haven't been playing a ton lately, but i'm starting to pick it up with the summer coming. there's a good chance i'll be posting questions in here more soon. hopefully it'll gain some momentum.

    EDIT: i blame those who complain about this forum and the lack of poker talk, and use that as an excuse to not comment in actual poker content threads. seems to me they're just shooting themselves in the foot, but what do i know.
    Last edited by trigs; Jun 04,2014 at 01:06 PM.

  7. #7
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    I agree trigs, my time on here certainly comes and goes in waves, as life does have its moments outside of the forum that prevent me from checking on here everyday. But there is a lot more talk about general off topic stuff your right than actual game theory etc. Maybe everyone just thinks theres no point speaking up when there are literally hundreds if not thousands of books, websites, training tools etc.

    To me those are all good and swell, and most are geared towards A.) online play and B.) after game analysis since nobody has 10 mins every hand to be punching things into programs, doing all the exact math. I play by feel and basic math understand of the game.

    my .02

  8. #8
    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
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    the idea is you do the math now so that next time something similar happens at the table, you can intuit something close to the 'correct' play
    I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!

  9. #9
    SHIP IT, BITCHES! pkrfce9's Avatar
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    p.s. and this forum blows
    I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!

  10. #10
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    cant blow that bad, you got 5 entries into some satties that may or may not run and a snickers bar out of it lol....... cant blow that bad

  11. #11
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    Also, though you are very right about remembering the math on those for next time, but to me that is as simple as figuring out what hand you think your up against, counting your outs, doing some basic math, than thinking about the 100+ hand ranges, effective stacks, +- EV based on certain hands and if more ppl call etc.

  12. #12
    Full PFC Member trigs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pkrfce9 View Post
    p.s. and this forum blows
    at least it's free. usually you have to pay for that kind of thing.

  13. #13
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    To be honest, I thought there would be more responses on this so far, but ill give it some more time. Yes Bfillmaff, you certainly could stay quiet on hand 1, but wouldnt it be fun to see your thoughts on that situation too, just dont disclose in what position you were in, just maybe look at the hand objectively?
    OK, can't resist:


    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50
    Button range once he raises against 2 "limps", (we'll assume that we don't know he holds JcTc)



    HJ and cutoff ranges after flatting the pf 3bet are similar to each other:



    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c
    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15
    Button is betting his whole range here, it's a good board to c-bet and 2 players checked, so we gain no information from this bet.

    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.
    We get check-raised so we know that Hijack has hit this flop, either with a hand, a draw, or both. We can take a few hands out of his range, which now looks like this:



    button has 10cJc.
    Pot is $95
    Hijack has $75 behind
    Button has $250 behind
    Range vs range, Button is a slight underdog at 45/55.
    With JcTc specifically, Button is a 51% favorite against HJ's range:




    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?
    Seems like a perfect spot to shove. Out of the 141 hands in HJ's range, he can call a shove with 48 of them, so we're getting a fold 2/3 of the time and taking the pot down with Jack high. The other 1/3 of the time we are getting it in and are in pretty good shape with 40% equity:

    HJ's calling range and our equity against it:




    Our equity is going down big time once a turn card comes out, and pushing our 1% edge we can safely get it in now and really not mind either a fold or a call. By shoving it now we also avoid the inevitable $75 bet from the HJ on the turn card.

    Adding up the numbers for shoving the flop:

    2/3 of the time we get a fold and win $95
    40% of 1/3 of the time we get a call and win $170
    60% of 1/3 of the time we get a call and lose $105


    Or: (95 * .66) + ((170 * .4) + (-105 * .6) * .33)
    Or: 62.7 + 1.65

    For a total EV of +$64.35 if we shove on the flop. Get it in!

  14. #14
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    Also thank you for going soo in depth on the 2nd hand. Since most decisions are based on a shorter time scale than to sit down, go through all the options on the fly, do the math and make a decision, how about just thoughts based on feelings and simple math opposed to counting out all pure possibilities just for numbers sake, although that is good to see and know. Does that make sense?

    Like if your in a live game, and unless your rainman, or someone way better at math than myself, those numbers would be nowhere in site at that moment.

    So maybe some questions based on player feel, or table dynamics or anything etc. Just curious what else people can offer, suggest that I can learn from and evaluate.

    I love breaking hands down like this after the fact. Sure, you can't necessarily do this level of thinking on the fly, but it can validate your "feel", expose other options, and most importantly develops shortcuts that CAN be used on the fly. I think there is much much more to it than counting outs and figuring out what you are up against. IMO working out and watching the hand ranges narrow down from pre-flop to river is a great way to visualize what they actually look like in game. I know my range evaluation in game has gotten better each time I break one of these hands down at home... and if nothing else it at least gets discussion going!

  15. #15
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    very fair, would u be willing to work with me on these software programs to help me out, I have downloaded pt4 etc etc etc and i am just no good with that sorta stuff. maybe bring your laptop, or i can download again and come by monday a little earlier and sit down with me? or online over skype or something also and maybe do a session? what do you think? ive always wanted to do a skype poker session with someone and just bounce thoughts back and forth. low limits training stuff of course.

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