Hand Analysis - Set vs. Possible Over-set

gordan_gecco

Here is a hand from a 1/2 NL game.  I'm not concerned about my cold call preflop.  I called the preflop raise based on it being less than 5% of my stack (as recommended elsewhere for "implied odds hands" in a NL cash game), and because I figured the players behind me were good for a call as well since they were pretty loose.  I'm more concerned about what happened on the turn.  Here is the hand:

Table 'Hedda III' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: flat10_4pin ($156.55 in chips)
Seat 2: Joker49 ($177.05 in chips)
Seat 3: RParker ($228.10 in chips)
Seat 4: gordan_gecco ($166.55 in chips)
Seat 5: jimmicash ($52.50 in chips)
Seat 6: SlickShoesX ($166 in chips)
Seat 7: Gorill@style ($121.35 in chips)
Seat 8: c_money83 ($104 in chips)
SlickShoesX: posts small blind $1
Gorill@style: posts big blind $2

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gordan_gecco [6c 6h]
c_money83: calls $2
flat10_4pin: folds
Joker49: folds
RParker: raises $6 to $8
gordan_gecco: calls $8
jimmicash: folds
SlickShoesX: calls $7
Gorill@style: calls $6
c_money83: calls $6

*** FLOP *** [6s 5c Js]
SlickShoesX: checks
Gorill@style: checks
c_money83: checks
RParker: checks
gordan_gecco: bets $15
SlickShoesX: calls $15
Gorill@style: folds
c_money83: folds
RParker: folds

*** TURN *** [6s 5c Js] [Th]
SlickShoesX: checks
gordan_gecco: bets $40
SlickShoesX: raises $103 to $143 and is all-in
gordan_gecco: ?

What would you do?  I had played about 40 hands against this player, and he seemed to be semi-loose aggressive.  There is no made straight or flush possible at this point.  He called the raise from the small blind, called my bet on the flop, and check-raised me all-in on the turn.  The only hands that can beat me at this point are pocket jacks or pocket tens.  Based on his play of the hand, how would you play this?  Any and all feedback is appreciated.  Result to follow.

Hork42

I'd put him on 55 or JT.

I don't think he has TT, why would he call the flop bet? JJ is unlikely.
I think he has a made hand and does NOT want to see the flush or straight come.

I'd call the all in most of the time here. I could be wrong and be rebuying though....

hork.

Big E

55,AJ,AT,QK....may be sitting on TT but I agree with Hork I think he's trying to buy the pot, me I would call at that point....but then I would have dumped the 6's pre-flop.

so.....what happened?

ScottyZ

I would call.

Pre-flop there is nothing wrong with either calling or folding. The key aspects of calling are

1. You feel it is highly unlikely to get re-raised.
2. You have sufficient implied odds to chase what is not often going to be the best hand. (Something like the 5% mentioned in the OP, or the "5 and 10 rule" can be used as a rough guideline.)
3. Although probably obvious, you need to be capable of playing it "no set, no bet".

It's hard to put a typical 1-2 opponent on JJ when he doesn't re-raise pre-flop, although that is a perfectly reasonable way to play the Jacks from the SB. It's also pretty bizzare to check-call the flop with Tens.

I'd agree with Hork's read of 55 or JT, although, I think it would even be a loose flop call with the JT. He might also be making a semi-bluff on (what appears to be) a powerful draw, like Ks Qs or As 5s. There is a small chance of a stone-cold bluff, although I would give my opponent the "Daring Pirate Balls of Steel" award for choosing this particular spot to run a bluff on absolutely nothing.

In real-time, I'd probably be thinking something along the lines of him having about equal chances of having 55 and JJ (and, importantly, that the opponent probably would have played 55 and JJ the same way), and the fact that he could have a lot of hands other than these would greatly tip the scales in favour of a call.

ScottyZ

SirWatts

Honestly I would call here without even thinking, if he has me beat then I'm just gonna get broke, and I'm ok with that. Set over set is just one of those things that happens on occasion, and he may be the one with the smaller set anyways. There are all kinds of other hands he could easily have here though, I think I'm way ahead a very large % of the time, and cursing my bad luck only a small %.

gordan_gecco

Thanks for all of the replies. I put him on 55 or JJ for trips as well. Since he didn't re-raise preflop, I felt that there was a better chance he had 55 and simply limped hoping to hit a set like I did, although like Scotty mentioned, it is possible that he would limp with JJ. However, since a large portion of players would re-reaise with JJ I felt it was more likely that he had 55. I didn't think he would play JT, but it turns out that he did (they were both clubs). I called his bet (trip tens didn't seem likely since he check-called the flop) and took down a $353 pot after a rag fell on the river.

I was just curious to see if anyone would have considered laying it down. Because he smooth-called the flop and check-raised the turn, it smelled like a slowplay. But with no flush or straight possibility, the chances were so slim that he had me beat.

Thanks for the replies.

Hork42

Cha-ching!

13CARDS

I once had a hand even better than this. It was truly a MONSTER flop for me.

WATCH IT HERE