When to risk your tournament?
I have had this situation come up a few times and have been in the calling situation as well as the betting situation. I am looking for some input as to what factors you consider to make the decisions;
Lets assume that the chip stacks are 2000 avg, blinds are 30/60, and the playing field is average,
for all cases, your 1 off button, mid position raises 3x BB, and will do so with K9 or better, of A5 or better, yet will raise bigger with a PP higher then 99 or AK. He is not a complete donkey, but is out of line frequently.
You call small blind folds BB calls ( BB is a decent player, who will take advantage of weakness, but plays strictly the odds), and you have called the mid position raise
First hand
You hold 3 :h: 4 :h:
Flop comes A :c: 2 :c: 5 :c:
BB, checks. MP goes all in and has you very close to covered, so if you call and lose your pretty much done.
So the pot has 570, before the raise, 2300 after. Likelyhood is the best he has is AJ, with a club, or a set of 5's. In either case you are ahead in the hand.
So there are 9 outs to the flush, or 8 for a full. Against either case you are a favorite, however 1/3 of the time you are out of the tournament.
Against average players, you wont be hurt if you fold as the blinds are low and chips are deep comparatively. What do you do?
- Lets assume you know that you can get your chips in with BETTER odds against a couple of chip farms on the table, calling stations . What do you do?
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Same situation, same flop you hold K :c: Q :h:. BB checks, BB bets 500 ( either a low flush or two pair or a set looking for protection), MP folds . What do you do? Fold or call? What about pushing your all your chips in the middle, where you are at best a 3-1 dog, but against another flush your a 4-1 dog. However, there is a large percentage that he will fold against this bet.
What do you do? What factors help you make this decision? How big does his fold factor have to be?
When the odds are in your favor but less then 80%, ie all ins where you have top pair, but the board shows a str draw or a flush draw. When do you call? or fold? And how do you go about that decision.
Lets assume that the chip stacks are 2000 avg, blinds are 30/60, and the playing field is average,
for all cases, your 1 off button, mid position raises 3x BB, and will do so with K9 or better, of A5 or better, yet will raise bigger with a PP higher then 99 or AK. He is not a complete donkey, but is out of line frequently.
You call small blind folds BB calls ( BB is a decent player, who will take advantage of weakness, but plays strictly the odds), and you have called the mid position raise
First hand
You hold 3 :h: 4 :h:
Flop comes A :c: 2 :c: 5 :c:
BB, checks. MP goes all in and has you very close to covered, so if you call and lose your pretty much done.
So the pot has 570, before the raise, 2300 after. Likelyhood is the best he has is AJ, with a club, or a set of 5's. In either case you are ahead in the hand.
So there are 9 outs to the flush, or 8 for a full. Against either case you are a favorite, however 1/3 of the time you are out of the tournament.
Against average players, you wont be hurt if you fold as the blinds are low and chips are deep comparatively. What do you do?
- Lets assume you know that you can get your chips in with BETTER odds against a couple of chip farms on the table, calling stations . What do you do?
_____
Same situation, same flop you hold K :c: Q :h:. BB checks, BB bets 500 ( either a low flush or two pair or a set looking for protection), MP folds . What do you do? Fold or call? What about pushing your all your chips in the middle, where you are at best a 3-1 dog, but against another flush your a 4-1 dog. However, there is a large percentage that he will fold against this bet.
What do you do? What factors help you make this decision? How big does his fold factor have to be?
When the odds are in your favor but less then 80%, ie all ins where you have top pair, but the board shows a str draw or a flush draw. When do you call? or fold? And how do you go about that decision.
Comments
Although this is a tournament where future opportunities to build chips are a consideration, folding here would be a gross misuse of this concept.
You're getting about 1.3 to 1 on your money and it seems very likely that you are at least a 2-1 favorite in the hand. The +EV of your call (under this win-odds assumption) is more than 20 times the big blind. Such large edges are not to be passed up in a tournament, even if you are playing against horrible opponents.
ScottyZ
Does the factor of making it through a 10 person, 30 person of 100+ person feild come into play at all? Considering you could be knocked out, doesnt hat risk come into play at all?
I don't think the size of the field makes a big difference here. Size of the field doesn't really matter as much as things like average stack size, size of the blinds, and size of your own stack, etc.
This should be a consideration when you are contemplating a close EV decision, specifically a decision which has EV close to 0 (or has negative EV).
Obviously, it is hard to quantify exactly how "close to 0" an EV decision needs to be to activate the variance reduction play (in this case, folding). This particular decison is not appear close.
Calling here (assuming none of your opponents has already made a flush1) has an expected value of around +$1,200, or about 70% of your current stack size. By way of comparison, calling an all-in bet from an opponent who has you covered when you hold AA has +EV of around 60% of your stack size.2 Would you make one of these two plays and not the other?
Again, the chances of being busted are different in these two examples (33% vs. 20%), but chances of being busted are only worth considering when you face close EV decisions.
ScottyZ
1Which you might consider (for the purpose of analysis) as balancing out with the fact that the opponents who decide to stay in the hand may have no flush draw at all.
2Assuming you know the action will be heads-up, and that AA has roughly an 80% chance of winning the hand.
My rule of thumb is, 60% chance of winning the pot and I am willing to put ALL of my chips go in NO QUESTIONS asked. I try not to, but I will. I have thought about and debated this question for a LONG time with A LOT of people. And, I have never seen an excellent quantification of EV of "waiting for a bigger edge later." I understand the concept, but I think it is over applied. 60-40 -- scoot the loot. You will NOT get the chance to at least double through with those odds too often.
Regarding the KQ? Sigh... it' depends. Some players will NEVER fold top pair. If he is one of those monkeys, fold. If you have almost any fold equity at all, move in.
Any fold equity, wow, I didnt think it was that easy of a push.
So are you willing to put your money in with top pair, top kicker, against a str of flush draw? Where your the 60% favorite? When someone pushes with these draws.
Im just confused by the paradox, and where to draw or 'bend' a line between them.
These are the areas where I am LEAKING / or busting out of tournies. And really want to plug this hole if possible. Wiondering what the checklist is when deciding to push, call or fold against these situations.
Is it as simple as Scotty's straight up odds example?
Same with the flush draw -- If I KNOW that my opponent has A-K in the example, I fold instead of move in. But, I don't know that. If I have him on a suffciently wide range of hands that there is some fold equity, move in.
I guess I have been looking at this too short term. Outside of a few mistakes (over estimating fold equity), I have been getting pounded in these situations. The reads are there, putting my $ in against flush draws, str draws... just the deck has been working against me.
They are flippin' over the cards I think they will be, but the dealers flipping over cards he shouldnt be... sounds like it is all going to be alright and I think thats what I needed to hear.