5/10 6 max do I call river?

SirWatts

Villian has vpip in the 50s and is typically somewhat passive postflop. However he showed one very strange semibluff a few hands earlier.

Hold'em Limit ($5/$10) 6 max
Seat 1: 27outs ($88 in chips)
Seat 2: Eric2222 ($173 in chips)
Seat 4: SirWatts ($368 in chips)
Seat 5: Gamemaster86 ($175 in chips)
Seat 6: alkalinejj ($383 in chips)
Gamemaster86: posts small blind $2
alkalinejj: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts [Th As]
2 folds
SirWatts: raises $5 to $10
Gamemaster86: folds
alkalinejj: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [3s Ts 9s]
alkalinejj: checks
SirWatts: bets $5
alkalinejj: calls $5
*** TURN *** [3s Ts 9s] [Jc]
alkalinejj: checks
SirWatts: bets $10
alkalinejj: raises $10 to $20
SirWatts: calls $10
*** RIVER *** [3s Ts 9s Jc] [6c]
alkalinejj: bets $10
SirWatts: ?
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $72 | Rake $2
Board [3s Ts 9s Jc 6c]
Seat 1: 27outs folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Eric2222 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: SirWatts (button) folded on the River
Seat 5: Gamemaster86 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: alkalinejj (big blind) collected ($70)

the_main

you sound like you really wanted to call there

usually when a pasive postflop player check rasies me, ill drop my hand right there...
if youre going to call the turn, id say you should call the river too

BBC Z

the_main wrote:

you sound like you really wanted to call there

usually when a pasive postflop player check rasies me, ill drop my hand right there...
if youre going to call the turn, id say you should call the river too

He has to call the turn because he's on the nut flush draw.

I reserve the right to not comment on the river. I pay off too much after my opponent tells me he's ahead..

stpboy

Nice fold, not an easy one though. Straight on board, overpair and flush on board with a plethora of other possibilities. I'd say you were beat but I'm with BBC, I likely pay him off....it's only $10 right? LoL. Nice fold or great turn raise by him. It looks like you're still playing some good poker Mike, how's the rock?

stp

ScottyZ

Interesting hand, and a tough decision I think.

To be honest, I'd probably end up paying off the opponent in real-time. However, it seems very implausible upon reflection that your opponent has less than a pair of Tens given his betting pattern. His betting pattern doesn't fit too naturally with the idea that he might be running a stone-cold bluff.

If I was calling here, I guess I'd be counting on the fact that he had some kind of strong drawing hand on the turn: Qs Xx, Ks 9x, etc. That seems to be a thin call, and I can certainly see how folding on the river is reasonable.

The trouble with short-handed poker is where to draw the line between the opponent being highly aggressive or actually having the hand that he has represented with his betting. Second pair (flopped top pair) is sometimes enough hand to pick off the table cannon, but on a dangerous board such as this one, this kind of hand often leaves me guessing.

ScottyZ

SirWatts

oops I put the question mark there but left the resullt.  The rock is good I've been having a great summer, though not playing live much.  Pokerwise it's been great if you ignore my ring game results, had a nice rush of tourneys there fora while.  Trying to really work on my 6 max game right now, my results have not been good but the players are just terrible, I gotta start running good eventually, might as well patch some holes while I'm waiting for that.

Psi

I throw in my 10$ and say "Show me the J"
you're getting 8:1 here, not horrible but still likely behind.

Dave Scharf

With position, I re-raise the turn. If he four bets I call (nut flush draw) and fold the river if I miss. If he calls I check the river unless I hit the flush. This progression with risk losing slightly more than call and then fold river, but it wins a lot more if you (1) have the best hand or (2) make the flush.

SirWatts

Interesting, I thought about this possibility but it didn't seem like a good idea to risk getting the turn capped when I thought I was behind. He's passive though so I should get a free showdown if he has 2 pair, a set, and maybe even a straight (well maybe a non-nut straight). If I plan to call the river anwyays this is definitely a better play, but if I plan to fold the river I think it's better to just call. This was probably a close enough decision to play this way though, since i didn't know how I was going to play the river until I got there.

SirWatts

Psi wrote:

I throw in my 10$ and say "Show me the J"
you're getting 8:1 here, not horrible but still likely behind.

I think he has to have at least 2 pair to CR the turn (or be on a semibluff). He would probably lead with just a J or check call I think, given he's somewhat passive. The fact that he's willing to risk a free river card to go for a CR is scary to me.

stpboy

I'd give him credit for QJ or KJ with the Q or the K being a club...guess we'll never know though.

SirWatts

stpboy wrote:

I'd give him credit for QJ or KJ with the Q or the K being a club...guess we'll never know though.

Yeah that seems like the other possibility. Don't say the we'll never know thing! Now I'm definitely gonna have to call next time I play an interesting hand and bleed chips just to find out.

ScottyZ

SirWatts wrote:

Psi wrote:

I throw in my 10$ and say "Show me the J"
you're getting 8:1 here, not horrible but still likely behind.

I think he has to have at least 2 pair to CR the turn (or be on a semibluff). He would probably lead with just a J or check call I think, given he's somewhat passive. The fact that he's willing to risk a free river card to go for a CR is scary to me.

I would (and would expect quite a few players to) often go for a check-raise on the turn with one pair of Jacks. On the other hand, I see how you'd discount this possibility against a passive (and probably more timid than usual) opponent.

It's something of a moot point in this particular hand, since a pair of Jacks has you beat anyway. However, in general when the highest board card on the turn is the turn card itself, I don't usually rule out a first position player check-raising with a spiked top pair. To be honest, simply betting right out on the turn when an overcard falls after check-calling the flop often smells a bluff to me. (Since, I think, it represents a good opportunity to run a bluff.)

ScottyZ

PokerKai

After not 3betting the turn, I think you have to pay off the river. In a HU situation your hand is going to be good at least one in seven.

BigChrisEl

To me there is a possibility that he has nothing but a lower or middle pair (Tens perhaps) and he is bluffing at the pot.

He could have the same hand as you and decide to go for the semi-bluff.....I know you said he was passive but still it could be perfect spot bluff (if he truly has nothing).

If he has nothing he could be thinking the only way that he is going to win this hand is by betting, checking raising you on the turn and betting out on the river.

Did you think about re-raising him on the turn?

I may have called just to look him up.