Tourney Hand

sweetjimmi

About 12 players till the money. New table...no reads...and I'm wanting to make it deep...rather than just make the money...

Do you do anything different? I'm not sure there is any way I can fold can you?



PokerStars Game #2134787869: Tournament #10124232, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2005/07/18 - 22:02:43 (ET)
Table '10124232 23' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: madmax11 (25052 in chips)
Seat 2: sweetjimmi (30106 in chips)
Seat 3: Glad269 (34946 in chips)
Seat 4: newbie4 (91830 in chips)
Seat 5: Datruth (18550 in chips)
Seat 6: cubshundley9 (37447 in chips)
Seat 7: HOLDDEMM* (107751 in chips)
Seat 8: standardbred (99895 in chips)
Seat 9: urdone (59118 in chips)
madmax11: posts the ante 150
sweetjimmi: posts the ante 150
Glad269: posts the ante 150
newbie4: posts the ante 150
Datruth: posts the ante 150
cubshundley9: posts the ante 150
HOLDDEMM*: posts the ante 150
standardbred: posts the ante 150
urdone: posts the ante 150
madmax11: posts small blind 1500
sweetjimmi: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sweetjimmi [Js Jd]
Glad269: folds
newbie4: folds
Datruth: folds
cubshundley9 has timed out
cubshundley9: folds
cubshundley9 is sitting out
HOLDDEMM*: folds
standardbred: folds
urdone: raises 3000 to 6000
cubshundley9 has returned
madmax11: raises 18902 to 24902 and is all-in
sweetjimmi: raises 5054 to 29956 and is all-in
urdone: calls 23956
*** FLOP *** [Qd 8s 9d]
*** TURN *** [Qd 8s 9d] [4h]
*** RIVER *** [Qd 8s 9d 4h] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sweetjimmi: shows [Js Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
urdone: shows [Qc Qs] (three of a kind, Queens)
urdone collected 10108 from side pot
madmax11: shows [Qh As] (a pair of Queens)
madmax11 said, "gg"
urdone collected 76056 from main pot
newbie4 said, "nice 2, for 1"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 86164 Main pot 76056. Side pot 10108. | Rake 0
Board [Qd 8s 9d 4h 3s]
Seat 1: madmax11 (small blind) showed [Qh As] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 2: sweetjimmi (big blind) showed [Js Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: Glad269 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: newbie4 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Datruth folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: cubshundley9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: HOLDDEMM* folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: standardbred folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: urdone (button) showed [Qc Qs] and won (86164) with three of a kind, Queens

AcesUp

It's too bad you just got moved to that table and had no reads but I think you can get away from that hand. The min raise gives it away and then someone re-raises the min raiser all in, can JJ really be a favorite over alot of hands? Also you can find a fold because you don't really need to play that pot.

SirWatts

Yeah I'd lay this down too. With 10xBB you can wait for a better spot, JJ figures to be in bad shape most times here. With 6xBB left this would be a tough decision, and with 4xBB or less it's a call and cross your fingers spot. I find I sometimes use the "I want to go deep not just make the money" as an excuse to take an unnecessary gamble in spots like these. I'd call with QQ though.

ScottyZ

I'd call with QQ though.

Good point.

What about TT in the same scenario?

ScottyZ

Tigerscott

raise and reraise infront of you all you have is JJ

calling was a mistake..

sweetjimmi

What about AK here? Is it still an easy fold?

ScottyZ

sweetjimmi wrote:

What about AK here? Is it still an easy fold?

I'm not so sure that JJ is an easy fold. To me, AK also looks fairly playable in the tournament scenario you're in. They are both pretty close decisions. And I don't mean close EV decisions that you should pass on in tournaments--- I think they are close decisions period in your current tournament scenario.

At this point, the blinds are big relative to your stack. You have only about 10*BB to start the hand, and your Harrington/Magriel M is just over 5. This is a pretty short stack. If you had a lot more chips, you might lean towards folding hands like JJ or AK facing a re-raise from unknown players.

Although the min-raise often raises the red flag for me, it's tough to say that the min-raise means something here. When the blinds get this big, many players start raising the minimum for a steal/semi-steal attempt simply because they don't want to put a lot of their chips at risk making a play. They are relying on the fact that, though the raise is the smallest allowed, the absolute amount of the raise is more likely to be big enough to "get the job done".

I'd say that neither folding or calling with the JJ (or AK) here would be a clear error. I'd probably lean towards calling with either hand myself.

Some "neighboring hand analysis": Easy call with QQ. I'd probably fold TT or AQ. Therefore, JJ and AK are probably pretty close decisions.


ScottyZ

sweetjimmi

Very interesting...as my first reply (which I deleted) started by saying, what makes this an easy fold?

Again, with no reads of the table it makes things difficult but with my experiences I agree with Scotty...once the blinds start getting close to 10BB of the average stack...the min raise starts to be used by many players. My logic was that Button could have any two cards here...again without a read it is nearly impossible to know what the min raise means. Next the SB pushes...hmmm...again I don't immiedately give SB credit for a big hand here since they could be trying to pick-off the Button...again the lack of a experience with these players is to be desired.

In the end I really felt that JJ could easily be the best hand with worst case being a race against one or two players.

So my question is back out to you...why give the Button and SB auto-credit for big hands here? Seems weak-tight to auto-fold JJ in this situation but maybe I'm missing something.

pkrfce9

Interesting problem.

With a single opponent, there is a slight chance you are a major dog, a good chance you are in a race and a pretty good chance you are a strong favourite. I would almost always push my chips.

With 2 opponents already all-in, the dynamic changes. You are correct that the button, SB play could be a factor here, especially at this stage of the tourney. However, I think the chances of being a major dog are higher than against a single opponent and the chances of a race are also higher. I doubt very much you would be a strong favourite over 2 opponents. At best, I would guess you'd be something in the order of a 40% favourite to win the hand. (I'll try to do a simulation later tonight.) I'm not sure if a read on the opponents matters as much as the stage of the tourney factors in here.

Any pearls of wisdom from the experienced tourney players here? How big does the pair have to be vs how many players already committed to the pot vs everyones 'M'. There must be a nice formula out there.

zero

In this situation, I'd fold everything except AA, KK, QQ, AK, and MAYBE AQs depending on what I think the other guys have. JJ is trash here.

Tigerscott

Not sure I even like AK there..

risking to much on a drawing hand..


I mean you have a ton of chips and playing in this spot is trouble.. with the 2 raises in front the second being 18k alarm bells gotta be ringing.. youd lov to play against QQ but who's to say it's not AA or KK..

I say fold to AK also

sweetjimmi

I don't get two things:

1. Why the auto-assumption that the button and/or SB have premium hands?

2. 10 Big Blinds = Lots of Chips? You are okay ... yes ... but I'm looking to double up and get some very needed breathing room. So what is a lot of chips (in comparison to the blinds) to you?

ScoobyD

I completely agree with you Jimmi on #1. Saying "it's a min raise, that means strength" is a pretty tight statement to make from a LP raiser. If you think that raise ALWAYS means strength, I'll hapilly take your blinds all day. This is a tough spot with no reads. Is it that inconceivable that the SB may think that the LP raiser is on a blind steal, and hence might be willing to push on him with a middle pair like 77, 88? Possibly AQ, or AJ, AK? I would expect that usually in worst case you'd be up against 2 overs, but I can also see situations where you're a big favorite over the SB, and if you push allin behind him the LP raiser would likely release a steal attempt with something like Ax or even KQ.

As far as the 10 BB, I absolutely hate this spot. I find myself in "no-mans land" with this stack. Too short to make a standard raise, but enough chips to still give you a few orbits. If the blinds are soon going up, I like the push. FWIW I'm pretty sure I'm going bust here too.

Tigerscott

1. because he pushed into a guy that has him covered he's looking to double and wants to play Heads Up.

2. your not short stacked yet. you can pick up blinds once an orbit and go along ways...

Axel

I have to agree with the few that would go all in here.

The min raise could be a lot of hands. The raiser was on the button and the blinds have small stacks. There are a lot of hands behind JJ that the raiser would hope to get called with. A larger raise would probably only get action from premium hands.

Why would the SB go all in with a hand better than JJ? I would figure there is a good chance I am ahead at this point.

It is time to gamble.

SirWatts

hmmm I might not have rad the HH carefully enough, button raise and SB reraise changes things. With no reads on the players I still might fold, but if I know that the button has been stealing his fair share then I call.

Tigerscott

SirWatts
even if the button is stealing alot.. the SB pushed all in and is protecting his blind..

JJ is a good hand and going all in is ok with it.. But I'd rather be the one to push first not the one to call.. I rather make them make the tough decisions ..

SirWatts

Agreed, but if the button is a frequent stealer the range of hands the SB could come over the top with is pretty big. I might come over the top with any ace and any pair from the SB against a very aggressive player. JJ would be a nice favourite against this range of hands. On the other hand the SB could be a rock that would come over the top only with JJ-AA and AK, maybe AQ. This is why I would like some read on the players involved if I was going to call here. Also, it seems important to know whether doubling is the button's standard LP raise or if he is one of those people that thinks this is a good way to hide the strength of your monster hand (and lose your whole stack to 67s). If the SB and button are both aggressiveplayers your JJ may well be way ahead and it would be a terrible mistake to fold.

pkrfce9

I ran a quick simulation. Give one opponent any random hand. Give the other any Sklansky type 1-4 plus pairs down to 66 and a couple suited one-gappers in the mid range.

JJ wins about 49%. Semi-tighty wins about 33%.

So it's not a terrible call but you will lose half the time.

Ran another. Give both opponents credit for pairs 99 or higher or any 2 cards T or higher. JJ wins only 43%.

You can call and have a good chance to build a big stack but a bigger chance to bust out against 2 players.

Against a single opponent, even giving him credit for a decent hand, JJ wins 53%.