Pre or Post Flop

Ercules

Dave and the Team Canuck Members - I have one very simple question:

Do you feel that your play is better pre-flop or post-flop?

Dave Scharf

Generally, I rate my own play better pre-flop. Ralph, who doesn't post here is, I think, better post flop.

Psi

I'd much rather play post flop them pre-flop, it's just my strenght.

Dave Scharf

I have been giving this more thought lately.

The reason that I rate my pre-flop play higher is that I have done A LOT of work modelling players/starting hands/betting patterns. I own some info that is probably not unique, but I haven't seen anywhere else.

Post flop it is very difficult to build these mathematical models since the behaviours are more difficult to sort out. Post-flop it's a people game. I have made huge growth in this area lately, and I like my chances, but I have spent a lot more effort on pre-flop models.

Zithal

I own some info that is probably not unique, but I haven't seen anywhere else.

That's called teasing. Bad Dave.

Dave Scharf

OK... teasing, yes. The couple of paragraphs at the bottom pretty carefully explain the kinds of models that I have looked at... (these paragrpahs are from "Poker made simple: part III" from my site.)

Here is what I do"

(1) Define a player type ("a rock will raise with XYZ and call with X")
(2) Run every possible hand against the rocks defined pre-flop no-limit play.
(3) Make a fancy graph that shows what hands are profitable against this type of player
(4) In combat, match the real players against the archtypes that I have defined.
(5) Play accordingly.

The main problem, usually, is that I put people in wrong boxes. If I get you in the RIGHT box then I KNOW the math of the situation.

___________

It is a no-limit hold’em tournament. The blinds are $50 and $100. You are the big-blind. It is folded all the way around to the small-blind who makes it $300 to go. You started the hand with $1000 (you have $900 left after posting your blind). You look at your cards and see 7-2 offsuit. Obvious fold right? Wait. Not so fast! Pause for a second. Give it some thought. What are the variables? What’s he got and what will he do with it? Suppose, for example that you have a good handle on this opponent (you have him in a box) and you are reasonably certain that he will raise in this situation with any ace, any pair, and any two cards that are both ten or better. Also, you are also reasonably certain that he will only call a re-raise to $1000 with A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, or A-Q.

Suppose you re-raise all-in. When you do, he will fold 85 percent of the time. If you play 100 hands you will win 85 without seeing a flop for a total profit of $34,000 (his $300 plus your big-blind of $100 85 times). If he calls, you know he has the smaller range of hands listed above. Against this smaller range of hands 7-2 offsuit will win just 23% of the time. So, of the remaining 15 hands you will win about 3.5 of them (profit of $3,850) and lose 11.5 of them (loss of $10,350). Thus, in the situation described, if you re-raise all-in you will net $27,500 or $275 per hand. Surprised? Note that I have not considered the considerably more complicated option of simply calling his $300 bet pre-flop. You get into a big variety of situations if you start working out the possibilities post-flop. Nor have I considered the consequences of being knocked out of the tournament (which you will be 11.5 percent of the time that you try this play).

MDStorey

Suppose you re-raise all-in. When you do, he will fold 85 percent of the time. If you play 100 hands you will win 85 without seeing a flop for a total profit of $34,000 (his $300 plus your big-blind of $100 85 times). If he calls, you know he has the smaller range of hands listed above. Against this smaller range of hands 7-2 offsuit will win just 23% of the time. So, of the remaining 15 hands you will win about 3.5 of them (profit of $3,850) and lose 11.5 of them (loss of $10,350). Thus, in the situation described, if you re-raise all-in you will net $27,500 or $275 per hand. Surprised? Note that I have not considered the considerably more complicated option of simply calling his $300 bet pre-flop. You get into a big variety of situations if you start working out the possibilities post-flop. Nor have I considered the consequences of being knocked out of the tournament (which you will be 11.5 percent of the time that you try this play).

There are two other bonuses you can receive from this maneuver too!  1) If they call and lose, people will think you are a maniac or hyper-aggressive  , which you can use to your benefit... and also 2) They will be less likely to try a pure steal on your blinds!